IRAQ - Resource Nationalism Gets Global.

On the other hand, high oil prices since 1999 have fuelled resource nationalism on the global scale. This was spearheaded by Hugo Chavez, a populist radical who became president of Venezuela in 1999. Since then he has re-nationalised the petroleum sector in Venezuela through various types of measures against IOCs. The trend he began was followed quickly in other Latin American countries and other parts of the world.

Vladimir Putin, president of Russia since 2000, has given resource nationalism a new edge by imposing control over energy companies and combining it with militarism. His moves, along with those of Chavez, inspired several oil producing states including members of OPEC. With resource nationalism having become a global trend, Russian militarism is spreading to the Middle East through Syria (see news9SaudiIraqAug27-07).

Russia has lobbied successfully to set up an energy cartel which it hopes will rival OPEC. At the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, leaders of Central Asian countries, China and Russia on Aug. 16 agreed to create a "unified energy market" in a region which is home to some of the biggest producers of oil and gas.

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, part of the supremacist wing of a Shi'ite theocracy, made clear at the Bishkek conference that Tehran was prepared to join the proposed cartel. This would see the world's largest gas producers form a powerful bloc against Western interests. Against this is a US-led alliance in the Middle East which, among other things, includes the world's largest oil exporting bloc (see news9SaudiIraqAug27-07).

Christopher Langton, an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), says: "Russia is seeking to have an organisation tilt the competition in its favour". The move coincides with the decline of US influence in the SCO region, where both the Trans-Caspian pipeline project and the diversion of Turkmen gas via Russia to Europe have stalled.

France Intervenes: After years of shunning involvement in a war it said was wrong, France now believes it may hold the key to peace in Iraq, proposing itself as an "honest broker" between the Sunnis, Shi'ites and Kurds. During an Aug. 19-21 visit to Baghdad, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner told French radio station RTL the time had come for France and Europe to play a greater role in Iraq, adding: "I believe this is the moment. Everyone knows the Americans will not be able to get this country out of difficulty alone. I really believe that depending on what happens here it will change the world. This is about having an opinion and knowing what positive things one can do and what role France can play in this region".

The shift was one of the most concrete consequences yet of a thaw in French-US ties after the election in May of Nicolas Sarkozy, whose presidency no longer feels bound by the adamant refusal to take a role in Iraq which characterised the reign of his predecessor, Jacques Chirac. Kouchner said Iraq was "expecting something" from France.

The US broadly welcomed Kouchner's visit to Baghdad, saying it was evidence that the world was increasingly intent on bringing stability to Iraq. British and German diplomats hailed greater French role in the country. The New York Times on Aug. 21 quoted a "senior official close to Kouchner" as saying the French sought a role in political mediation in Iraq, and had no intention to enter the military conflict.

The French move carries the personal mark of Kouchner, one of few French politicians who backed the forcible removal of Saddam before the US-led invasion in 2003 and whose long-standing and close relations with Kurdish and Shi'ite leaders have earned him credibility in the region. During his visit, he had talks with religious and political leaders, including PM Maliki, a Shi'ite, and President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd whom he has known for three decades and who invited him to Baghdad.

One option under study is a peace conference to bring Shi'ite, Sunni and Kurdish envoys around one table, modelled on a gathering Kouchner held for various Lebanese factions at St. Cloud in July. Such a conference could be organised in France or in one of the countries neighbouring Iraq. Another possibility is shuttle-diplomacy led by Kouchner among the factions. But Talabani rejected the conference idea.

The French official said: "France in general and Bernard Kouchner in particular are uniquely placed to be an honest broker in Iraq". He did not rule out that France would at some point help train Iraqi security forces or French firms might participate in the Iraq's reconstruction as part of a larger European initiative - an idea Talabani welcomed - but he stressed this was not the focus of the current proposal.

Kouchner's trip, the first to Iraq by a French minister since the invasion, renewed interest in reports that the French IOC Total may seek a stake in Iraqi oilfields. This month, the French media reported that Total and Chevron were seeking to jointly explore some of Iraq's largest oilfields - Nahr Umr and Majnoon, which Total and Elf Aquitaine (now part of Total) negotiated with Saddam's regime in the 1990s. But no executives had accompanied Kouchner to Iraq and economic interests were not the focus of the trip.

Previously France had limited its role in post-war Iraq to scrapping 4 bn ($5.5 bn) in debt Baghdad owed and using its permanent UNSC seat to vote for a greater role for the UN. UK officials voiced their enthusiasm, saying they had barely discussed Iraq with the French over the past year, knowing that Paris had earlier had no intention of getting involved. A senior UK diplomat was on Aug. 22 quoted as saying: "This is a real bonus. Anything is better than nothing. Kouchner has the credibility and he knows all the players - with his record and his style, you can easily see him doing more negotiation between the parties". But selling the idea to the French may be difficult.

Even within Kouchner's Foreign Ministry, diplomats are sceptical about his initiative, warning it could put France and its citizens at greater risk from terrorist attack. One French diplomat said: "The prevailing view in a significant part of the French diplomatic community is that mediation in Iraq is futile and the civil war needs to run its course and hand a decisive victory to one faction before the violence can end".

Opponents of the Paris leadership jumped at the opportunity to hit Kouchner, a co-founder of Medecins sans Frontieres and a former UN administrator for Kosovo. Jean-Pierre Chevenement, a former Socialist minister and presidential candidate, accused Kouchner of "repenting" before President Bush for France's opposition to the war, and said the trip risked destroying France's diplomatic standing in the Arab world.

Yet in the French press a cautious consensus emerged that it might be in Paris' interest to take a role in Iraq. In an Aug. 21 editorial, the rightist Le Figaro said: "France owed it to itself to return to Iraq. You can shut yourself off for four years in the conviction to have been right but that doesn't increase the role our country plays on the international scene". Or, as leftist Le Monde put it: "It's time to stop lecturing the Americans about their errors and start contributing to a solution".

Kouchner's Iraq visit was welcomed by White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe who said: "This is one more example, along with the new UN mandate, the neighbours conference process and recent announcements by Saudi Arabia to open an embassy and forgive Saddam-era debt, of a growing international desire to help Iraq become stable and secure..."

The visit came on the fourth anniversary of the truck bombing of the UN Baghdad HQ which killed Sergio Vieira de Mello, the UN special envoy, who was a friend of Kouchner's. Kouchner was driven into Baghdad in an armoured SUV accompanied by US and Iraqi armoured vehicles, and was met at the airport by his Iraqi counterpart, Hoshyar Zebari. The two immediately went to the Foreign Ministry in central Baghdad for talks.

Kouchner had informed his US counterpart, Condoleezza Rice, as well as fellow European foreign ministers of his trip before Aug. 19. But the trip was not discussed during a recent meeting between Sarkozy and President Bush in the Bush family home in Maine.