IRAQ - Pre-Election Violence.

A series of co-ordinated bombings aimed at a meeting for national reconciliation on Oct. 11 killed 23 people and wounded 65 others in Ramadi, capital of Iraq's western province of Anbar which borders with Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. These were the latest in a string of deadly attacks in the predominantly-Sunni Anbar during the past few months which have focused on Arab tribal leaders, members of Iraqi security forces and awakening councils (ACs).

The province had been among the more peaceful in Iraq during the past two years after many tribal leaders dropped allegiances to al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia, a Neo-Salafi Arab group, and joined the US-founded ACs. Anbar Deputy Governor Hikmat Jassem Zeidan said the province's "police commanders are not doing their job the way it should be done", adding: "We have pointed out the mistakes and failures among the police, but no one has done anything to correct the problems".

The first bomb on Oct. 11 exploded about 11.00 am outside the HQ of Ramadi's main government building, where the provincial governor and council have offices. The Iraqi police said a car in a parking lot adjacent to the building was detonated as a meeting took place inside on reconciliation efforts between the Shi'ite-led government of Maleki and local Sunni Arabs. Among those attending the meeting was Zuhair Chalabi, a representative of the National Reconciliation Committee, a group formed by Maleki to bring together various factions after sectarian Sunni-Shi'ite warfare erupted in the wake of a Neo-Salafi bombing of a revered Shi'ite shrine in Samarra' on Feb. 22, 2006. Chalabi was not wounded.

About seven minutes later, a second car in the parking lot exploded, wounding security force members and others who had responded to the original explosion. It was the second bomb which caused most of the casualties. The building was protected from the explosions by blast walls which had been recently fortified.

In September, the provincial council had voted to remove the walls, but the recent spate of violence led it to change course and erect even more barriers. Many of the victims of the bombings were taken to Ramadi General Hospital. About one hour after the first two bombings, a man driving a car filled with explosives tried to speed through a security check-point near the hospital. He was shot by a police officer at the check-point but managed to explode the car, killing himself and wounding two others.

After the attacks, police officials imposed a curfew in Ramadi and Falluja, Anbar's second largest city. Security forces prevented journalists from covering the blasts and confiscated video footage of the blasts. It was unclear who was responsible for the co-ordinated bombings. Rumours spread through Ramadi and other parts of Anbar that government officials were involved, part of the fall-out from months of negotiations over creating alliances for the Jan. 16 elections. Others said al-Qaeda was exploiting the rift between politicians ahead of the polls and blamed security forces for negligence.

At least six senior security officials are running in the elections. In July 2008 Aswat al-Iraq, an independent Iraqi news agency, reported that the uptick in violence in Anbar was a result of local tensions ahead of the Jan. 16 elections.

Shaikh Hashem Khalifa, a renowned tribal chief in Anbar, ascribed this growing wave of violence to "political conflicts as the forthcoming elections are drawing near". He told Aswat al-Iraq: "The once-relied-on security agencies in Anbar are now helpless as to confront violence for the two specific reasons of poor intelligence gathering and security commanders' inclination to avoid clashing with powerful political blocs".

According to Reuters, however, Iraqi officials blamed "Sunni [Neo-Salafi] extremists and members of Saddam Hussein'sBa'th party for a wave of bombings [in Anbar] since June, including two at federal ministries".

Fears that insurgents were regrouping before the Jan. 16 elections compounded concerns that the polls could be postponed if MPs did not agree on a new election law. In a statement issued in Baghdad on Oct. 11, the UN mission in Iraq warned there was a real risk the elections would have to be delayed because of squabbling within the legislature over what kind of election law to adopt and the composition of the commission which will oversee the polls. An election delay could in turn delay the withdrawal of US troops (see below).

The use of an open list system in the Jan. 31 provincial polls was praised as a milestone in solidifying a transparent, accountable democracy in Iraq. The system worked well for Maleki, whose law-and-order message resonated with voters fed up with years of bloodshed and a persistent lack of basic services. Gains for Maleki's bloc then came at the expense of rivals like the SIIC, a formidable Shi'ite party whose popularity has waned.

Sadeq al-Rikabi, a top political adviser to Maleki, says the PM has from the start backed an open list for the Jan. 16 polls. Washington also favours an open list. President Barack Obama has urged the Iraqi to pass the election law to that effect. While few Iraqi politicians are willing to openly buck such pressure and push for a closed list system, there is resistance to an open list from large, well-organised parties like the SIIC which believe their chances at the polls are better with the status quo.

Sunni Arab MP Wathab Shaker says some parties like the SIIC publicly call for an open list but, behind the scenes, are clinging tightly to the closed list system. A showdown is expected between Maleki's SoL coalition and former partners such as the SIIC and supporters of anti-American mullah Muqtada al Sadr, who now is also part of the INA. Political analyst Haidar al-Mulla says: "There is a great fear among the larger political blocs about the adoption of an open list. This method means that Iraqis will slap them and hold them responsible for what has been happening since 2003". He says it is increasingly unlikely that parliament will pass an open list system, suggesting that a "semi-open, hybrid list could be a compromise".

Shi'ite Families Return From Iran: Twenty Shi'ite Arab families who were sent into exile in Iran by Saddam's dictatorship after a failed uprising in March 1991 last week returned to Iraq. The families, about 250 people, crossed the border near the southern, oil-rich city of Basra, the first of two groups expected to return this month.

Atheer Kamel, the head of immigration and displaced persons in Basra province, says those expected to return before end-October would be "about a few hundred people". They will all be settling in Pasra province.

The families, mostly from the Basra area, settled into refugee caps on the Iranian border. Many Iraqi Shi'ites fled to Iran under Saddam's dictatorship. These included the Hakim clan who in the early 1980s founded the SIIC in Iran with the help of the IRGC. During the Iran-Iraq war, some even fought on the Iranian side against Iraq.

The Associated Press quoted Nour al-Halou, 70, as saying he decided it was time to return to Iraq with his family, adding: "We heard about the bad situation in Iraq, but we were determined to go home. We suffered a lot in the camps in Iran, and we believe that our homeland is after all better than a foreign country".

Iraqi Forces Reach 640,000: Addressing leaders of Shi'ite Arab tribes in Diwaniyah, 130 km south of Baghdad, PM Maleki has said that Iraq's Army and security forces now have reached 640,000. He has stressed: "Security remains top in our priorities" and has accused "neighbouring countries" of "harbouring terrorists". While he has often mentioned Syria by name, he has kept referring to Iran as being among "the neighbouring countries".

Maliki says such a large number of Iraqi government forces has been straining the state's budget. But he has repeatedly emphasised the need of such a large number, saying: "Without security, the state cannot speak of improving essential services and reconstruction".

Baghdad Backs Return Of British Troops: Parliament on Oct. 13 approved the return of a limited number of British troops to Iraq to help protect its southern oil ports. The majority of MPs approved a security pact with Britain which would return about 100 UK troops to provide protection to the oil sites and train Iraqi forces.

Iraq's Kurdish President, Jalal Talabani, and the two vice presidents - the Sunni Tareq al-Hashemi and the Shi'ite Abdel Abdul-Mahdi - must still sign off the agreement. A government spokesman later in the week said their endorsement of the security pact was expected "shortly".

British forces ended combat operations in Iraq earlier this year, withdrawing all but 100 to 150 personnel who were training Iraq's new Navy. Britain was forced to pull the remaining personnel out when Iraq's parliament went on summer break without agreeing to allow the British to stay on to protect southern oil ports and train Iraqis there.

US military officials have repeatedly said Iraq has still not purchased the ships and patrol planes it needs. The pact with the British drew objections from the Sadrist MPs, who walked out during the vote.

US Pull-Out Plan: Top US military spokesman Brig Gen Stephen Lanza on Oct. 12 outlined a plan for the American withdrawal from this country. He said by end-October, US troop strength in Iraq will be 120,000, a decrease of 23,000 since January. The next big reduction will not come until well after the Jan. 16 elections. He referred repeatedly to a "responsible draw-down".

It was Lanza's first full-scale news conference since May, when he addressed reporters in advance of Iraqi security forces' taking the lead in security operations on June 30. On Oct. 12 he said: "I really think the elections will be a point of departure by which we look at an assessment of true draw-down and really start moving our numbers from, let's say, somewhere between 120,000 and 110,000 by the election, and then getting at that 50,000 by August 2010".

The US has pledged to remove all its combat troops from Iraq by end-August 2010, leaving 50,000 troops to advise and support the Iraqis. Under the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) signed by the US and Iraq in late 2008, all American forces must leave Iraq by end-2011. But Maleki has hinted that there might be an extension of the US military presence in Iraq should the security situation require continued reliance on American military assistance.

Gen Lanza put the post-June 30 civilian and military deaths down by 80-90% from the same period in 2008. There was not as great a reduction in US troops, however, despite their withdrawal from combat duties in the cities. He said: "The key to us is to be flexible in our draw-down. We want to have the right capability to support the government of Iraq as a sovereign partner. I would envision sometime after the election, perhaps in 30 to 60 days, there would be another decision point based on another assessment of the security environment, and we would then look at moving more forces out of the country".

US troops remaining after August 2010 would be focused on training. Already, the first "advise and assist brigade", devoted exclusively to training Iraqi troops, has arrived in Anbar Province. That is the First Brigade of the US Army's 82nd Airborne Division. It will eventually be joined by five more such brigades. The increase in the number of Iraqi forces has made it possible for the police to take over security duties in many cities from the US and the Iraqi militaries. Gen Lanza said Iraq's budget provided for security forces totalling 720,000, including 253,002 in the military. He played down the strength of the Neo-Salafi insurgent groups. He said the numbers of Qaeda militants and Arab volunteers joining them and moving to and from Iran and Syria had decreased significantly in recent weeks. The main reason for this is that al-Qaeda is almost bankrupt, say US Treasury officials, judging from Qaeda's online appeals for donations.