IRAQ - Maliki Might Be Ousted.

The Associated Press on March 13 reported "close associates" of Maliki as saying the PM feared the US will torpedo his government if parliament did not pass a law to fairly distribute Iraq's petroleum wealth among Iraqis by end-June (see ood3-IraqPetroleumLawMar19-07). This is only one of several US benchmarks seen by Maliki as key to continued US support, a crucial need for the survival of his troubled cabinet.

AP quoted the associates as saying US officials had told Maliki they wanted a government in place by end-2007 acceptable to Iraq's Sunni neighbours, particularly Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt. "They have said it must be secular and inclusive", one associate said. To that end, Maliki on March 13 made an unannounced visit to Ramadi, a Sunni insurgent stronghold, to meet with tribal leaders, Anbar's governor and security chiefs in a bid to signal willingness for reconciliation to end the bitter sectarian war which has riven Iraq for more than a year.

Compounding Maliki's fears about a withdrawal of US support were visits to Saudi Arabia by key figures to win support for a major political realignment. Saudi Arabia is a major ally and oil supplier to the US. The next Arab summit will meet in Riyadh on March 28-29 (see news13-RiyadhArabPeacePlanMar26-07).

Former PM Iyad Allawi, a secular Shi'ite, flew to Riyadh on March 13, a day after the arrival there of Kurdistan President Mas'oud Barzani. "Allawi is there to enlist support for a new political front that rises above sectarian structures now in place", the former PM's spokesman, Izzat al-Shahbandar, told AP. The two met in Kurdistan before the trip for talks on forming a "national front to take over for the political bloc now supporting Maliki".

AP added: "It appears certain the US was informed about the Allawi and Barzani opening to the Saudis", who are concerned Maliki could become a puppet of Iran, the Shi'ite theocracy on Iraq's eastern border they view as a threat to the region's stability. The US has been reported to be working more closely with Sunni Arab governments to encourage them to take a greater role in Iraq, particularly in reining in the Sunni insurgency which has killed thousands of US soldiers and tens of thousands of Iraqi Shi'ites.

AP noted: a "Maliki confidant said the US had voiced displeasure" with the government even though he has managed so far to blunt resistance from Jaysh al-Mahdi to the US-Iraqi security operation in Baghdad. AP quoted Maliki associates as saying the Americans had been frustrated he had done nothing to oust the Sadrists, that the petroleum law had not moved forward, and that there was no genuine effort at reconciliation and no movement on new regional elections.

Asked for reaction to Maliki's concerns, Gordon Johndroe, President Bush's national security spokesman, referred to Bush's comments on Feb. 16 in which he commended the government for making progress in meeting some of its own benchmarks - such as moving more Iraqi troops into Baghdad and bringing criminals to justice. Bush then said: "And that's good news for the Iraqi people. And it should give people here in the United States confidence that this government knows its responsibilities and is following through on those responsibilities".

Passage of the petroleum law has become a major issue for the US, which had initially counted on financing Iraq's reconstruction with oil revenues. But the decrepit oil infrastructure and violence have left the country producing oil at about the same levels as before the war, at best, and those figures are well below production before the 1991 Gulf war which resulted in UN sanctions affecting the Iraqi oil industry.

The main Sunni bloc in parliament and Allawi allies in the Shi'ite bloc oppose the petroleum law. Maliki has lost the backing of the Shi'ite al-Fadhila al-Islamiya Party, and independent Shi'ite members are split on the law. They voice fears about what they see as too much foreign involvement and profit sharing. According to AP, the Maliki associates said US officials told the PM Bush was committed to the current government but continued White House support depended on positive action on all the benchmarks - especially the petroleum law and sectarian reconciliation - by the close of this parliamentary session on June 30.

AP quoted "one of the associates" as saying: "Maliki is committed to meeting the deadline because he is convinced he would not survive in power without US support". Standing in the way is a recalcitrant cabinet, which Maliki has promised to reshuffle soon. But so far he is at loggerheads with groups in parliament threatening to withdraw support if he did not allow them to name replacements for cabinet positions.

The key objectives identified by the Bush team in January were: approval of the petroleum law, reversal of de-Ba'thification laws blamed for alienating Sunnis by driving them out of government, holding local elections, and reform of Iraq's constitution. But some Bush officials are wary of a backlash from the ruling Shi'ites if the US push too hard. US forces are cracking down on Shi'ite militias, while Bush officials are pushing Shi'ites to bring more Sunnis into the government as part of the political reconciliation process. Bush officials said they had been forced to ease up on parts of the timetable.

Bush officials had initially hoped the government under Maliki would quickly agree to make room for more former Ba'thists in the military and elsewhere in government, reversing the de-Ba'thification laws which took effect in 2003.

The Mew York Times quoted a senior Bush official as saying: "We're holding the Iraqis to their commitments on de-Ba'thification reform, and they're making progress. But we recognize that pushing some issues too hard or too fast or with rigid timelines can carry unintended consequences, such as intensifying the very sectarianism we all want to dampen".

The NYT quoted "a Western diplomat in Baghdad" as saying: "We'd like to see Iraq develop a real moderate center. It may not be realistic on this short a timetable". Philip Zelikow, until December the State Department counsellor, said part of the hold-up stemmed from "a recognition that things were worse than people realized. Significant parts of the new strategy need to be developed from scratch".

President Bush on March 15 met with Iraqi Vice President Adel Abdel-Mahdi at the White House. Later in that week Abdel-Mahdi - the deputy leader of Iraq's main Shi'ite party, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) - participated at UN talks on Iraq's reconstruction. The other Iraqi Vice President, Tareq al-Hashemi who leads Iraq's main Sunni group, the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP), visited Tehran to discuss - among other things - improving relations between the Shi'ite theocracy and Iraq's Sunni minority.

Now there are four competing de-Ba'thification reversal proposals floating from various political groups, including one from a presidential commission including President Jalal Talabani, which US officials say is the most promising. But Talabani has been ill for weeks, slowing progress on the de-Ba'thification reversal. The NYT quoted a senior Bush official as saying: "This is a very tough one. Its particularly tough for the Shia, who see themselves as victims of the Ba'thists. When does it need to move? I can only say as soon as possible". On local elections, the official said "Iraqis are working toward the end of the year, and I think that's a very reasonable goal". As for constitutional reform, Bush officials say they have no timetable.