IRAQ - Jan. 14 - Clinton Approves Aiding Opposition.

With less than a week left in office, the US administration of Pres. Bill Clinton has approved a plan to help Iraqi opposition groups re-establish their presence inside Iraq (a potentially high-risk operation that could test Pres.-elect George W. Bush's commitment ousting Pres. Saddam Hussein). In a report submitted to Congress last week, the administration outlined plans to distribute food, medicine and other forms of relief to government-controlled areas of Iraq by means of the Iraqi National Congress (the main umbrella group for opponents of Saddam's government). The $12m plan has important political and security implications because it would commit the US to assisting the Iraqi National Congress in re-establishing a substantial operation inside the US-protected "safe area" of northern Iraq, from which it was ousted by Saddam's forces in 1996. The Congress appropriated funds last autumn and gave the administration until Jan. 5 to develop a plan for carrying it out. According to the plan, prepared in close consultation with the Iraqi National Congress, opposition members would make clandestine forays into government-controlled areas to distribute relief supplies and propaganda.

(Administration officials acknowledge that Saddam is sure to regard the opposition's presence as a provocation, raising questions about the willingness of the incoming administration to protect the operation from Saddam's military. Leaders of the opposition view the operation as a precursor to the armed insurrection that they hope to mount one day with the help of American weapons and air support. Administration officials welcome the initiative as an effective way to bolster the opposition's profile in Iraq short of supplying it with weapons, a proposal with wide support in Congress but one that Clinton and his aides regard as ill-advised. Even as a relief, however, the plan "does raise obvious security questions", said a senior administration official involved in formulating Iraq policy. The Iraqi National Congress "is very conscious of the risk it faces", the official said, adding that the administration had talked about the security issues with the opposition and that "a new US administration is going to be looking closely at this". After checking with transition officials for the Bush team on Jan. 13, a spokeswoman of the administration said she was "unable to determine" whether Bush's foreign-policy advisers had been consulted on the plan.

In any event, she said, they would have no comment on it until after Bush is inaugurated as president on Jan. 20. Richard Perle, a former assistant defence secretary who advised Bush on foreign policy during the campaign, predicted that the new administration would welcome the initiative. "It's not a question of blocking them in or forcing them into a situation they object to", he said. "My guess is they will wish to support the opposition". From all indications, US policy towards Baghdad is approaching a crossroads, and not just because the new president is taking office. The trade embargo is losing international support and in some cases has been flouted by governments eager to restore business and diplomatic ties with Baghdad. Arab states, in particular, are critical of continued air strikes against Iraqi targets by US and British aircraft patrolling the "no flight" zones over northern and southern Iraq. Another cause for worry centres on an unknown: the scope of Iraq's plans to develop nuclear, chemical and biological weapons after the departure of UN inspectors on the eve of US air strikes in December 1998. In addition, Baghdad has used oil-smuggling revenues to rebuild some of its conventional forces, which were displayed in a military parade in Baghdad on Dec. 31.

US intelligence analysts have been scrutinising videotapes of the parade. In 1998, Congress passed, and Clinton reluctantly signed, the Iraq Liberation Act. It authorised the Pentagon to provide the opposition with as much as $97m in weapons and military training. In addition, the administration last autumn provided the London-based Iraqi National Congress with $4m for administrative and broadcasting expenses. By telephone from his office in London, Ahmed Chalabi, a founding member of the Iraqi National Congress and its most visible spokesman there, said he hoped the US operation would lead to bigger and better things, adding: "If we can operate an organisation inside the country and at the same time carry out an actual programme inside the country in the face of Saddam's regime, then we can do it for other things which are relevant to getting rid of Saddam").