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IRAQ - Iraqi Scenario With Iran Controlling The South.



Ghassan Atiyyah, an Iraqi expert who is founder and director of the Iraq Foundation for Development and Democracy and the editor-in-chief of Al-Malaf Al-Iraqi (the Iraqi File), first published in 1991 in London and recently re-launched in Baghdad, was on July 13 quoted as saying the recent election of Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad as president of the Iraqi republic marked the "the dawn of a new Islamic revolution in the world". Ahmadi-Nejad's election, he said, ended a period during which the Iranian religious leadership was "forced to retreat in the face of the American storm let loose" by 9/11, which "opened a space for Iranian reform that helped not only absorb America's rage, but also allowed for the building of bridges of cooperation, without allowing for genuine change inside Iran". But with the election of Ahmadi-Nejad, "the Iranian presidency regains its militancy in both form and spirit".

Attiyah added: "In spite of the Iranian-American antagonism, it was Iran that was the prime beneficiary of America's wars in Kuwait, Afghanistan, and most recently Iraq. These wars rid Iran of its two greatest adversaries - the Taliban regime and Saddam Hussein Saddam Hussein

(born April 28, 1937, Tikrit, Iraq—died Dec. 30, 2006, Baghdad) President of Iraq (1979–2003). He joined the Ba'th Party in 1957. Following participation in a failed attempt to assassinate Iraqi Pres.
 - without its having to fire a single bullet. The occupation of Iraq, however, brought with it an Iranian fear that America's quick victory would succeed in establishing a prosperous democratic system that would return Iraq to its former strength - a strength it might again be able to use against Iran. Positive change in Iraq also carried with it the possibility that further pressure would emerge from within Iran demanding democracy. Furthermore, the occupation gave rise to fears that Iran could be America's next stop after its victory in Iraq. This fear quickly led Tehran to build bridges of cooperation with Sunni and Shiite insurgents Insurgents, in U.S. history, the Republican Senators and Representatives who in 1909–10 rose against the Republican standpatters controlling Congress, to oppose the Payne-Aldrich tariff and the dictatorial power of House speaker Joseph G. Cannon.  in Iraq. Once the US became embroiled em·broil  
tr.v. em·broiled, em·broil·ing, em·broils
1. To involve in argument, contention, or hostile actions: "Avoid . . .
 in Iraq with no victory in sight, Iran entrenched en·trench   also in·trench
v. en·trenched, en·trench·ing, en·trench·es

v.tr.
1. To provide with a trench, especially for the purpose of fortifying or defending.

2.
 and broadened its influence in Iraq. Washington cannot undertake military action against Iran. Rather, in order to maintain stability and order in Shiite-controlled areas, mainly in southern Iraq, it has become dependent on Islamist Shiite groups subordinate to Iran".

The US needs these groups, and their militias, to maintain order - most notably, the Iranian-backed Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI SCIRI Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution In Iraq ). Rather than mediating between the different Iraqi groups, US policy has given rise to a Shiite-Kurdish alliance - where the Sunni Arabs have become victims. Thus, in its confrontation with the Sunni Arab insurgency in Iraq, the US finds itself more reliant on Shiite Arabs and Kurds. "Consequently", Attiyah said, the US was "a prisoner of both rather than an arbiter among different Iraqi factions".

Washington has been forced to become more and more dependent on the Shiite religious leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Husaini al-Sistani Arabic: السيد علي الحسيني السيستاني, Persian: سید علی , and the two Kurdish leaders, Jalal Talabani and Massoud Barzani Massoud Barzani (Kurdish: مه‌سعوود بارزانی , in order to make past and future elections a success and ensure the participation of the greatest number of voters possible. Attiyah then said: "One of the ironies is that the liberal and secular left The secular left is a term used to describe members of the left-wing who are also secularists (they support separation of church and state, a secular state, and a secular education).

The secular left is not necessarily opposed to the religious left.
 in Iraq has become a victim of the electoral process... It is under these circumstances that 'revolutionary' Iran is engaged in expanding its influence in Iraq. Today, this influence remains limited to southern Iraq, especially Basra".

Attiyah went on: "The contending roles in the regime have congealed con·geal  
v. con·gealed, con·geal·ing, con·geals

v.intr.
1. To solidify by or as if by freezing: "My aim . . . was to take the Hill by storm before . . .
 into one - that of an extremist Iran carrying a 'message' to the Islamic world and trying to acquire nuclear power. Washington's rush to bring about agreement on a permanent Iraqi Constitution and to hold elections in Iraq Elections in Iraq gives information on election and election results in Iraq.

Under the Iraqi constitution of 1925, Iraq was a constitutional monarchy, with a bicameral legislature consisting of an elected House of Representatives and an appointed Senate.
 at the end of the current year will further tempt Iran to expand its influence for the advent of an Iraqi Shiite government. This government will be its ally, if not its subordinate. This it will do before American efforts to build bridges to the Sunni Arabs succeed".

Inter-Kurdish competition between Talabani and Barzani will compel Talabani, as in the past, to maintain open relations with Iran. There remain many unresolved issues between Iran and Iraq. Attiyah noted that Iran continued to demand compensation for the Iraq-Iran war according to according to
prep.
1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of: according to historians.

2. In keeping with: according to instructions.

3.
 UN Security Council Resolution 509. Iran insists that Iraq announce its compliance with the 1975 accord which redrew the bilateral border in Iran's favour.

Attiyah concluded: "The Bush administration's frustrations in Iraq serve Iranian extremism both inside and outside Iran. Unless there is a reconsideration of American policies in Iraq, the country could end up a de facto [Latin, In fact.] In fact, in deed, actually.

This phrase is used to characterize an officer, a government, a past action, or a state of affairs that must be accepted for all practical purposes, but is illegal or illegitimate.
 partitioned state, with southern Iraq under the influence or direct control of Iran".

Muslim On Extremism & Democracy: A survey done by the Pew Global Attitudes Project This article or section needs sources or references that appear in reliable, third-party publications. Alone, primary sources and sources affiliated with the subject of this article are not sufficient for an accurate encyclopedia article.  before the July 7 bombings in London found that the British public was among the least hostile to Muslims, along with Canadians and Americans. That tolerance is not unequivocal. The International Herald Tribune International Herald Tribune

Daily newspaper published in Paris. It has long been the staple source of English-language news for American expatriates, tourists, and businesspeople in Europe.
 (IHT IHT International Herald Tribune (newspaper)
IHT Inheritance Tax (UK)
IHT Institution of Highways & Transportation (UK)
IHT Intermittent Hypoxic Training
) on July 15 said that, by July 14, at least four mosques in Britain had been set ablaze Verb 1. set ablaze - set fire to; cause to start burning; "Lightening set fire to the forest"
set afire, set aflame, set on fire

combust, burn - cause to burn or combust; "The sun burned off the fog"; "We combust coal and other fossil fuels"
 since the July 7 attacks.

Pew found that nearly four years after 9/11, and with terrorist attacks continuing around the world, a growing number of Muslims said violence against civilian targets was never justified. That figure was highest in Morocco, followed by Indonesia and Turkey, with big majorities rejecting suicide bombing Noun 1. suicide bombing - a terrorist bombing carried out by someone who does not hope to survive it
bombing - the use of bombs for sabotage; a tactic frequently used by terrorists

suicide bombing n
 as an acceptable means of defending Islam. Yet, roughly half of the Muslims questioned in Jordan, Lebanon, and Morocco said that in Iraq, suicide bombings against Americans and other Westerners could be justified.

Pew said a belief that democratic governance would work for the Muslim world The term Muslim world (or Islamic world) has several meanings. In a cultural sense it refers to the worldwide community of Muslims, adherents of Islam. This community numbers about 1.5-2 billion people, about one-fourth of the world.  had risen sharply. But at the same time, in many Muslim countries, support was strong for a greater Islamic role in national governments.

The poll, among 17,000 people from late April to early June, offered an unusually broad look at Muslim attitudes, and at Western attitudes on a range of Muslim issues. It found a sharp drop in the numbers of Muslims saying they would support violence against civilians in defence of Islam. This was most striking in countries which themselves had been hit by high-profile bombings. Support for such violence dropped sharply in Lebanon, where former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri was killed on Feb. 14, and in Morocco where suicide bombers killed dozens of people in Casablanca in 2003. In every instance, support dropped sharply when people were asked to contemplate attacks in their own country. Support for violence against civilians fell in Indonesia, which suffered a big decline in tourism after the Bali bombings Bali bombings can refer to either of two separate incidents on the Indonesian island of Bali:
  • The 2002 Bali bombings
  • The 2005 Bali bombings
 of October 2002, with 45% of Indonesians surveyed saying they viewed Islamic extremism as posing a threat to their country. Still larger percentages in Morocco, Pakistan and Turkey said they viewed Islamic extremism as posing a very or fairly great threat to their country. There was no consensus about the causes of Islamic extremism.

Lebanese and Jordanians pointed to US policies; Moroccans and Pakistanis to poverty and joblessness; Turks to lack of education; and Indonesians to immorality. The polling was conducted in six predominantly Muslim countries - Indonesia, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Pakistan and Turkey - and in Britain, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, the Netherlands, Poland, Russia, Spain and the United States United States, officially United States of America, republic (2005 est. pop. 295,734,000), 3,539,227 sq mi (9,166,598 sq km), North America. The United States is the world's third largest country in population and the fourth largest country in area. . Margins of error ranged from plus or minus two percentage points to plus or minus four. The responses amplified a Pew finding released in June showing that anti-US feelings had been declining in the Islamic world but that favourable feelings outnumbered the unfavourable only in Morocco.

From its findings in the West, the Pew report sketched more sharply some of the fault lines in nations where Muslims and others coexisted. In almost every European country with a Muslim minority, a majority of respondents said they viewed Muslim immigrants as slow to accept and take on local values and customs, and they overwhelmingly viewed a growing sense of Islamic identity among Muslims in their countries as "a bad thing".

About 9 in 10 Dutch respondents said Muslims in the Netherlands had a strong sense of Muslim identity. A 9 in 10 Germans said Muslims in their country wanted to remain distinct from the larger country; only half of Americans said this about Muslims in the US.

Paul Scheffer at the University of Amsterdam said there was no doubt the distance between Muslims and the rest of Dutch society was growing in the Netherlands. He said for Muslims, "reaffirming their religious identity is also the result of not feeling at home". Big majorities in every non-Muslim country except Poland said they were concerned about Islamic extremism in their own countries. In Canada, the US and Russia, majorities said they had very or somewhat favourable views of Muslims, as they did in France, with the largest Muslim population in Western Europe Western Europe

The countries of western Europe, especially those that are allied with the United States and Canada in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (established 1949 and usually known as NATO).
 - about 10% of the total population of 60m. Only in the Netherlands did a bare majority hold unfavourable views, as did nearly half of Germans. Majorities in Germany and the Netherlands said they held negative views of immigration immigration, entrance of a person (an alien) into a new country for the purpose of establishing permanent residence. Motives for immigration, like those for migration generally, are often economic, although religious or political factors may be very important.  from the Middle East and North Africa.

Many in Muslim countries seemed to confirm the perceived separateness of societies, saying they saw themselves first as Muslims, then as citizens of their country. In Europe, attitudes on Turkey's bid for EU membership were shaped strongly by attitudes on immigration. Majorities in France, Germany, and the Netherlands said they opposed EU membership for Turkey; majorities in Britain, Poland, Spain and Turkey were in favour.

Polling in most Muslim countries found falling levels of confidence in Osama Bin Laden Osama bin Laden: see bin Laden, Osama. . In Jordan, confidence rose from 55% in 2003 to 60%, and in Pakistan it rose from 45% to 51%.

There was near-universal antipathy in the Muslim countries towards Jews. In Lebanon, 99% of Muslims and Christians said they were very unfavourable towards Jews.
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Publication:APS Diplomat Redrawing the Islamic Map
Geographic Code:7IRAN
Date:Jul 18, 2005
Words:1598
Previous Article:IRAQ - Why Is The US Less Safe.
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