IRAQ - Iran-US Nuke Confrontation.

Quoting "official sources", Agence France-Presse on Oct. 13 said the EU states were set to announce on Oct. 17 that talks with Iran over its nuclear ambitions had failed and to leave it up to the UN Security Council (UNSC) to consider punitive action. According to draft conclusions of a meeting of EU foreign ministers set for Oct. 17, EU states believe "Iran's continuation of enrichment-related activities has left the EU no choice" but to throw the issue back to the UNSC.

The ministers' conclusions, drawn up by the EU's 25 member-states, express "deep concern" that Iran had not yet suspended its enrichment-related and reprocessing activities as required by the IAEA and a UNSC resolution. In Berlin, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said the path was clear for the UNSC to intervene in the stand-off. He said the EU had to accept "that we will not get to the negotiating table" after the bloc's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, recently said talks with Iran had broken down. The French Foreign Ministry on Oct. 13 stated that a "broad agreement" existed among the six powers engaged in the Iran issue about UNSC measures. "This means there is no argument against letting the UNSC deal with the matter", Jean-Baptiste Mattei, a spokesman for the ministry, told reporters in Paris, adding: "It's clear we are now going to work in New York very soon". But he said the door to talks remained open: "To double-lock the door to negotiations is not our vision of things".

The FT on Oct. 14 quoted a European diplomat as saying the EU foreign ministers would formally end negotiations with Tehran at their talks in Luxembourg. The ministers are due to declare that "negotiations with Iran have terminated because of a lack of results". However, the draft of the meeting's conclusions, dating from Oct. 11, does not include that sentence. Senior diplomats from the six negotiating powers - Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the US - discussed the sanctions during a video-conference in the morning of Oct. 11, said Sean McCormack, a spokesman for the US State Department, adding: "I think there is broad agreement on the potential sanctions that would be included", but not yet agreement on the specific items that would be in a resolution. (The six have been debating for weeks the kinds of sanctions to impose on Iran for ignoring an Aug. 31 UN deadline to suspend uranium enrichment. Washington and others fear Iran will use enriched uranium for nuclear weapons).

(Under UNSC Article 41, members may "decide what measures, not involving the use of armed force, are to be employed to give effect to its decisions". These may include complete or partial interruption of economic relations and of rail, sea, air, postal, telegraphic, radio and other means of communication, and severance of diplomatic ties).

After North Korea's announcement it had tested a nuclear weapon for the first time on Oct. 9, the leadership of Iran's theocracy has not only refrained from condemning Pyongyang but is continuing its nuclear activities. The New York Times on Oct. 13 quoted analyst Sa'eed Leylaz as saying: "It looks like the message of North Korea's test for Iran was that it can also continue its programme. They felt that if they act forcefully and confrontationally, they can...proceed with their plan like North Korea".

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Oct. 10 said his country would continue with its uranium enrichment, asserting, as other senior Iranian leaders had, that the programme was intended for peaceful purposes. He said Iran had voluntarily suspended enrichment three years ago, "but now we will pursue with a strong heart". President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad said Iran would "continue its path of dignity based on resistance, wisdom and without fear". Government spokesman Gholam-Hossein Elham said: "Iran opposes any use of weapons of mass destruction" and blamed the US for the North Korean nuclear test, adding: "The root cause of this should be sought in the policy, behaviour and method adopted by the rulers of the US".

Khamenei has repeatedly spoken out against nuclear weapons. Iran's facilities are visited by IAEA inspectors, although Tehran says it will bar inspectors if the UNSC imposes sanctions on Iran. Most local dailies have avoided commenting on North Korea's tests and focused on politics. But the conservative Keyhan, which reflects the views of Khamenei, ran a large headline on its front-page saying, "North Korea's nuclear bomb caught the world by surprise". The moderate Kargozaran in a commentary on Oct. 10 said North Korea could proceed with its programme because it had China as its ally. It argued that "the international community was less tough with North Korea, which has a nuclear bomb, than with Iran, which does not have a nuclear bomb". Reactions were mixed over whether Iran should continue as North Korea has. The NYT quoted Javad Tabatabai, a retired schoolteacher, as saying: "A country that has a nuclear bomb has no right to tell other countries that they should not have one. We are a superpower in the region, and no one will dare to stop our program".

The US, Bahrain and 64 other states will hold their first naval exercise in the Persian Gulf from Oct. 31 to practice interdicting ships carrying WMDs and missiles. This is the 25th exercise to be organised under the US-led Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) and the first to be based near Bahrain, across from Iran. Reuters on Oct. 13 quoted a "senior US official" as insisting the exercise was not aimed specifically at Iran, although it reinforces a US strategy aimed at strengthening America's ties with Arab states in a region where Tehran and Washington are competing for influence. The official said: "It's an effort to bring a lot of Gulf states together to demonstrate resolve and readiness to act against proliferation". The PSI, established in 2003 under President Bush, is a voluntary association of states which agree to share intelligence and work against WMD proliferation, including through military exercises which practice interdiction techniques and co-ordination.

James Jeffrey, principal deputy assistant secretary in the Bureau of North Eastern Affairs at the US State Department, on Oct. 12 told a press conference in Dubai the Iranian reaction "had left us with no option, but to enforce an embargo against the defying regime". He added: "We want to make sure that our actions are not against the people of Iran whom we respect... The US administration will reach out to the Iranian community and people whom we have no problem with".

Jeffrey said the US was speaking with the leaders of the GCC and other states in the region to ensure peace and stability, noting: "Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was in the region a week ago [Oct. 2-6] and the US will continue its efforts in this regard". Jeffrey, whose previous assignment was in Iraq for almost a year as a senior adviser to Rice and co-ordinator for Iraqi policy, said the world was passing through critical times from West Pakistan to Darfur and they had to unify their multilateral actions in order to ensure peace in the region.

Jeffrey rebuffed allegations that US involvement in the Gulf was linked to its interest in oil and said: "I advise those who come up with this argument to check how many oil concessions we have secured from the region since the liberation of Kuwait in 1991... We are not here as a colonial power. We came here to help the nations in this region to secure peace and stability and ensure prosperity". Commenting on the current situation in Iraq and the fact that Iraq lacked stability 42 months after removing Saddam's Ba'thist dictatorship, Jeffrey said: "We have been highly transparent about the situation in Iraq and we were clear about the critical conditions there. We like to see Iraqis sitting together to discuss their differences and come up with workable solutions...What we see in Iraq these days is sectarian violence which forms the majority of hostility in Iraq as compared with [Sunni/Ba'thist/Neo-Salafi] insurgency. The US is weighing options and the administration is definitely not in favour of dividing Iraq into three states and we will not do this".

Jeffrey said the US backed the democratic choice of people in the region. It had never questioned the legitimacy of Hamas as a representative of Palestinians in a fair and free election. However, he said: "We are against the policies of Hamas that are against recognising the need for peace in the region. The US pays $275m to ensure the basic needs of Palestinians but we cannot give the money of the American taxpayers to a government that refused to denounce terrorism".

Iranian Ambassador to Baghdad Hassan Kazemi-Qomi on Oct. 9 said Tehran will have no problem sending gasoline and other fuels Iraq. Kazemi-Qomi made the remarks during a meeting with Iraqi Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani. He said: "The Islamic Republic of Iran can supply the fuel needs of Iraq if requested by Baghdad". This is despite the fact that Tehran is spending more than $10 bn/y on the import of gasoline from abroad.

Kazemi-Qomi, close to Ahmadi-Nejad and Iran's IRGC, said a committee would be set up within days to implement agreements signed between the two neighbours on the subject. Shahristani praised efforts made by Iran to supply fuels to his country and called for continuation of Iran's support to Iraq's fledgling government and expansion of bilateral co-operation. He expressed his country's determination to export crude oil to Iran and import Iranian fuels. Iran and Iraq have signed an agreement for Iran to supply 1,000 tons/day of LPG through the Mehran border to Iraq and for Iraq to supply 2m t/d of clean fuels (called "white oil") to Iran through the same border.