IRAQ - Int'l Iraq Conference.

Powell confirmed on Sept. 26 that he planned a conference - proposed by Allawi - to enlist the help of neighbours like Iran and Syria. The aim is to block any cross-border attempts, confer greater legitimacy on the election process and encourage more Iraqi dissidents to participate by Jan. 31, and reach an accord barring interference by the neighbouring states. Powell said: "This was a way to reach out to Iraq's immediate neighbours and persuade them that this is the time to help Iraq, so that the region can become stable". Powell recently met with Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk Al-Shara in New York on co-operation along the Iraq-Syria border.

Powell repeated the State Department's assertion that all Iraqis must have the chance to vote if the election is to be credible, adding: "You know, there will be polling stations that are shot at. There will be insurgents who will still be out there who will try to keep people from voting. But I think what we have to keep shooting for - and what is achievable - is to give everybody the opportunity to vote in the upcoming election, to make the election fully credible and something that will stand the test of the international community's examination".

On Sept. 27, however, France said it would take part in the proposed conference if the agenda included a possible US troop withdrawal. Paris also wants representatives of Iraq's insurgent groups to be invited to the conference, a call that would seem difficult for the Bush administration to accept. French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier described the situation as one of "chaos in Iraq, with generalised insecurity including in the 'Green Zone'" - the heavily guarded area in Baghdad housing many US, British and interim government offices. Barnier also suggested that the conference be convened at the UN in New York, not in the Middle East.

King Abdullah of Jordan, who met with President Jacques Chirac in Paris on Sept. 28, advised against holding the elections by Jan. 31. He said that, while the Iraqi situation was chaotic, well-organised Islamist militant groups would win such elections at the expense of moderate parties that are less disciplined.

Saudi Arabia jumped to the occasion on Sept. 27 by proposing that Arab states take part in monitoring Iraq's elections. This coincided with a notion, now spreading in the Arab world, that the US and its Iraqi allies intended to rig the elections. But Allawi told the Arab TV network Al-Arabiya on Sept. 28 the elections will be fair and free and will be monitored by observers from the UN, EU and other countries. Saudi Arabia also announced it was holding a four-day conference in Riyadh on Feb. 5-8, 2005 to define terrorism, and distinguish Arab and Islamic resistance fighters from this.

Iraq's Kurdish Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari was on Sept. 28 quoted by the Financial Times as warning that any premature withdrawal of foreign troops would be "disastrous". He said the conference would aim to help neighbouring states overcome their anxiety about the presence of a large number of American, British and other foreign forces and to reassure them there was "no hidden agenda". He said: "We want to tell them: you want these forces to leave, we also don't want them to stay indefinitely". But in the meantime neighbours should help Iraq to fight terrorism and support its political process, because "this will lead to what you want".

Zebari said there was plenty of money to go around in Iraq's reconstruction, adding: "These contracts should not be monopolised by certain parties". He said the conference would include foreign ministers from Iraq's neighbours plus the G8, the European Union, China, the Arab League and the Organisation of the Islamic Conference.

The UN secretariat has refused to take a position on the conference amid fears that any UN position might be used by political campaigners. But Zebari called on more countries to contribute to a UN protection force, without which the UN has warned it will not send more election experts. Zebari said: "The UN owes it to the Iraqis, it's under an obligation to assist and help push this process. [But] nobody's taking the lead. We believe the [UN] secretariat should do that, and also some members of the Security Council. They are not".

While the UN will neither run, nor monitor, the elections, MNF officials say its role is crucial to supporting an independent electoral commission. The UN's security arm has set a ceiling of 35 people in Iraq; of those, only eight are election experts. The UN secretariat's appeal to non-MNF states for a separate UN protection force has won few takers. Fiji is a candidate to provide close protection guards, but no non-MNF states are offering to protect UN facilities. The UN fears it has too many other priorities. Privately, UN officials say they do not want to be seen to be working too closely with the former occupying power, and believe an independent force would improve its image with ordinary Iraqis.

Responding to the French proposal, Zebari said premature foreign troop withdrawal from Iraq would be "disastrous for my country", adding that Iraq needed more time to train and equip its forces. Without foreign forces "I believe strongly the country would disintegrate", he said, raising the "possibility of civil war" or "the emergence of a small Saddam from this chaos".

A meeting involving top American and Iranian envoys could lead to the revival of a dialogue the two countries began a few years ago. At that time, they worked to secure Afghanistan after the US-led war to oust the Taliban. A revived dialogue could extend to other issues, including Iran's suspected nuclear weapons plans. Powell on Sept. 29 told Al-Jazeera: "I look forward to participating in that (Nov. 22 Cairo) meeting and being at a table with Syria and Iran to discuss regional matters".

The Bush administration had been cool to a proposal for an international conference when it was proposed earlier this year by France and Russia, two opponents of the war in Iraq and the US-led occupation. Senator John Kerry, the Democratic presidential candidate, has said that, as president, he would summon an international conference on Iraq to help implement UN resolutions establishing elections there.

The idea of the conference was discussed among officials attending the opening of the annual session of the UN General Assembly in New York last month. Allawi, in an interview with The New York Times (NYT) on Sept. 22, said he had been forming separate committees with Iraq's neighbours, including Iran and Syria, to make sure there is no outside interference in Iraq, whether by funnelling support for insurgents or aid for various political candidates or factions.

Allawi said he had been trying to convince Syria, Iran and other states that, if they seek to influence events in Iraq, its instability "will spill over to you" and that "to protect yourselves and to protect the region, it is very important that we work together to control the borders" and to preserve Iraq's territorial integrity.

Paris & Berlin Won't Change: French and German government officials say they will not significantly increase military assistance in Iraq even if John Kerry, the Democratic presidential challenger, is elected on Nov. 2. Kerry, who has attacked President Bush for failing to broaden the US-led alliance in Iraq, has pledged to improve relations with European allies and increase international military assistance in Iraq.

Gert Weisskirchen, MP and foreign policy expert for Germany's ruling Social Democratic party, said in an interview published on Sept. 27 by the Financial Times: "I cannot imagine that there will be any change in our decision not to send troops, whoever becomes president. That said, Mr Kerry seems genuinely committed to multilateralism and as president he would find it easier than Mr Bush to secure the German government's backing in other matters".

Even though NATO last month overcame members' long-running reservations about a training mission to Iraq and agreed to set up an academy there for 300 soldiers, neither Paris nor Berlin will participate. French Foreign Minister Barnier recently said that France, which has tense relations with Allawi, had no plans to send troops "either now or later". That view reflects the concerns of many EU and NATO officials, who say the dangers in Iraq and the difficulty of extricating troops already there could make European governments reluctant to send personnel, regardless of the outcome of the US election. The FT quoted an unnamed French government official as saying: "People don't expect that much would change under a Kerry administration, even if things can only get better. We do not anticipate a sudden honeymoon in the event Kerry replaces Bush. A lot depends on who is in power in both Washington and Baghdad. If there's change in both countries then it's possible we would re-examine our position, but I don't expect a massive change either way".

The feeling in German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder's office is that, if anything, Berlin is growing less rather than more likely to change its mind as security conditions deteriorate in Iraq. Schroder would also be unlikely to renege on his 2002 electoral commitment not to send troops as a new general election looms in 2006. There is no sign that the German public, which loathes the US president, would accept risking German lives to salvage what is widely seen as Bush's botched war. In fact, high-ranking German officials are privately concerned at the prospect of Kerry becoming president, arguing it would not change US demands but make it more difficult to reject them.

France and Germany, however, have said they would contribute to the reduction of Iraq's debt and participate in economic and environmental development programmes. Berlin trains Iraqi security forces outside Iraq and France says it would do so. Berlin was one of Europe's most vocal opponents of the invasion of Iraq and, with sizeable forces in the Balkan and Afghanistan, its troops are overstretched. Although Berlin did not oppose NATO's decision to start training inside Iraq, it still thinks the deployment is counter-productive.

In Britain, however, PM Tony Blair suffered a political setback on Sept. 26, even before the opening of the Labour Party congress in Brighton, as delegates voted to hold a debate on Sept. 30 on a proposal to withdraw British troops from Iraq. Although he eventually won over the dissenters, the debate itself was embarrassing for Blair, Bush's staunchest ally on Iraq. Blair has repeatedly rejected the idea of setting a date for troop withdrawal, saying it is impossible to predict how matters will evolve, and that to announce a timetable for a pullout would be tantamount to rewarding terrorists. Bush and his advisers have taken a similar stance, suggesting that Kerry had irresponsibly given succor to anti-US forces by suggesting that a withdrawal from Iraq could be completed during the coming four-year presidential term. Blair on Sept. 28 tried hard to remove the dark cloud of the war in Iraq in his speech to the Labour congress. He offered a qualified apology for the wrong information used to justify the US-led invasion. But he said he would not apologise for a war that removed Saddam's dictatorship.