IRAQ - Imposing Democracy In A New Iraq.

The Bush administration had envisaged that, in the new era for Iraq, the emphasis would be on a viable form of democracy, civic rights, individual empowerment and dignity, better education and all that raises the Iraqis' standard of living. Indeed, the neo-conservatives who were most aggressive in pushing for the ouster of Saddam know that Iraq will be a test case for their grand ambition to remake the Middle East.

The war phase has proven successful from the perspective of these neo-conservatives. They are now determined not to lose the peace, although this is proving a trickier task than winning the war. A systematic transformation of Iraqi society is about to begin in parallel with what is happening on the ground now. A project to design a new system of accountable local government and identify legitimate local leaders has been awarded to Research Triangle Institute, a non-profit research agency. The contract is worth over $160 million.

It is clear that decision-making in the initial phase of post-Saddam Iraq will be concentrated in American hands, although an Iraqi "government" of sorts is already operational. It is equally clear that the Bush administration feels that those initially charged with managing Iraq's transition to democracy are perhaps not up to expectations; hence the departure of US co-ordinator for central Iraq Barbara Bodine, her civilian boss Jay Garner, head of the Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian Aid (ORHA), and communications chief Margaret Tutwiler None of them lasted more than three weeks before the news of their departure was disclosed. Key allies like Britain, Australia and Japan also have personnel in place to help with the interim administration, which will last until an election is held at the national level.

Imposing democracy into an area that has never experienced it, and that does not have the cultural or religious intellectual infrastructure to support it, will not be an easy task. Paul Bremer, the top administrator replacing Garner, on May 21 Bremmer announced a new delay in the timetable for setting up an interim Iraqi authority. He said the national conference to choose the new government would most likely be held in mid-July - over a month later than originally planned. The British, in the south, have been facing similar problems. The British military authorities in the area have postponed local elections in the port of Umm Qasr, saying they need more time to organise the vote.

Post-Saddam Iraq is now a chaotic place. It has transitioned from being one of the most undemocratic places in the world to being a loosely integrated country bordering on anarchy. On the ground, law and order is being maintained by a combination of US and British troops and local policemen, mainly former servicemen under the Baathists who have been recalled urgently in order to prevent the arson and looting that prevailed in the immediate aftermath of the collapse of the regime.

Yet the intent of the US to stay in Iraq until its objectives to create a new democratic structure in the country is clear. Observers point out that far more daunting tasks were taken on after World War II, when the US was not as powerful as it is now. Asked in 1945 how long US soldiers would stay in Germany, President Franklin D. Roosevelt had replied: "A year, two years at the most". Their grandchildren are still there 56 years on. De-Baathification and democratisation of Iraq will take longer than the de-Nazification project in Germany.

In the meantime, opposition to the American presence in the country will increase. There have already been numerous demonstrations demanding that the Americans leave. Some Shiites theologians have become very vocal in their criticism of the US. Indeed, universal support for the US did not last even a week after the ouster of Saddam. When Jay Garner made his first visits, he was heckled or anti-US and anti-occupation slogans were raised in most parts of the country except the Kurdish part. In Nasiriyah, Shiite protesters greeted the US proconsul General Jay Garner with shouts of "No to Saddam, no to occupation".

Even allies of the US in the campaign to oust Saddam are insisting that the occupation should end soon. Jalal Talabani, leader of the

Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), told Dubai's Al Arabiyah television on April 21 that the US had no political role in Iraq. "We do not accept a foreigner heading an Iraqi government," he said, adding: "This government has to be a coalition, an interim one and an Iraqi one."

Such opposition is partly at least encouraged by Iraq's neighbours. None of the rulers in the neighbouring countries want to see a fully democratic Iraq. Indeed, the neighbouring countries will do whatever they can to prevent this scenario from becoming a reality. None of their interests are in line with the example the US wants to create in Iraq for the rest of the Middle East to follow.

As such, each of Syria, Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia is being forced to act quickly against the Bush administration's objectives within the new Iraqi political scene, while co-operating fully in destroying the old one - i.e. by capturing remnants of Saddam Hussein's Baathist regime, among other things. The US is aware of such tactics, and it has warned all the neighbouring countries not to meddle in Iraq. Some members of the Turkish security forces attempting to enter the north were detained in the closing stages of the war, while Syria was told not to give safe haven to fleeing Baathist leaders, and if it did, to be prepared to face the consequences. Damascus has been co-operating since then in rounding up those Baathist figures that slipped into Syria.

The most severe warnings from the US have been issued to Iran. While the US is prepared to see a secular but Shiite-dominated political structure in Iraq, it has warned Iran not to try to influence the course of events by manipulating its proxies in the country. Washington has confirmed that Iranian "agents" have crossed into Iraq to support pro-Tehran theologians both in Al Najaf and in Basra and Karbala. The agents are allegedly members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and the Badr Brigade, the latter being the armed wing of the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), led by the Tehran-based Ayatullah Mohammed Baqer Al Hakim.

Changing Mindsets: One of the hardest obstacles for the US in Iraq would be to change the way the Iraqi people think, i.e. the way they have been taught to think for over two decades through Baathist indoctrination. Observers say that democracy has to be taught, and it can only be taught from a young age so that Iraqis grow up understanding the concept and able to work within such a political system. The US, as such, is focusing on education. It is also subcontracting out the process of re-educating Iraqis to private companies.

By mid-April, the US administrative authority had recruited a number of American consultancy firms to help to purge Iraqi society of decades of political terror and indoctrination, for contracts worth well over $200 million. USAID, the federal agency in charge of these issues, has stated that under US law governing federal spending, only American firms were allowed to bid to be main contractors on the projects.

A contract to rebuild Iraqi schools has been awarded to the Washington-based consultancy, Creative Associates, which is owned by women from ethnic minority backgrounds. The firm, which was the only bidder for the contract, worth up to $70 million, must finding classrooms and school supplies for four million Iraqi children by the start of the next school year on Oct 1, 2003. It will also assist in retraining teachers forced for years to indoctrinate pupils with the glory of Saddam and the evils of the US and Israel.

Crucial to the American effort at changing the existing mindsets is the alteration of the school curricula. USAID had initially planned to hire American consultants to write and deliver an entirely new library of de-Baathised school textbooks. But this plan had to be scrapped in the face of opposition from Iraqi exiles working for USAID. But a spokeswoman for the agency said in mid-April that that textbook bid proposals would be published soon with tenders sought from organisations that had experience of publishing "secular" books in Arabic.