IRAN - The Risks.

From the Iranian perspective, there are risks inherent in the regional situation one way or the other. There is the possibility that, no matter how supportive Tehran is towards a US strike on Iraq, the theocracy would still come in the target sights of the American military machine because the hardliners would prevail in Washington for the foreseeable future. This is the line of thinking among the traditionalist hardliners in Tehran.

Frequent tough comments against Iran from the White House and senior American officials reinforce this suspicion. On Feb. 4, 2002, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi denied US claims that Iran was harbouring Al Qaida members and dismissed Bush's charge that Iran was developing weapons of mass destruction. Referring to the possibility of a US attack on Iran, he said: "I only hope the Americans will not make such a huge, irreparable mistake". Former President Rafsanjani called Bush's charges "rude and impudent".

By contrast, the reformist faction in the theocracy does not see a high possibility of an American attack on Iran. They note that the coalition against global terror may survive a US assault on Iraq, but it would not hold if America decides to attack Iran as well - with even the Europeans likely to back out. The reformist faction's thinking is that if a dialogue with the US is initiated before an assault on Iraq, all Tehran would have to do is stay on the sidelines, watch the US-Iraq game being played out, and pick up the pieces. The reformists point out that, had such a policy been applied in the Afghan scenario, when only behind the scenes contacts occurred, Tehran would have been much better placed than it is today (see News Service No. 19).

Yet, another point of concern is the US military presence in Afghanistan and Pakistan, which may remain in these countries for the foreseeable future. On the one hand, that may be a blessing in disguise, because it would help maintain a broad-based government in Afghanistan and prevent Pakistan from trying to expand its influence in any significant way over Afghan affairs.

On the other hand, it could involve considerable risk as well because a US presence in these two countries effectively means the Iran would be surrounded: on the east would be Afghanistan and Pakistan, both dependent on the US for aid, on the west Iraq where a pro-US regime could be installed, and in the south the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states which have been under an American security umbrella for decades.