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IRAN - May 10 - Registration For Presidential Election Begins.


Registration for presidential election begins without final confirmation that Akbar Hashemi Rasfanjani would stand again for the post he held between 1989 and 1997. Candidates have until May 14 to register for the June 17 election, with Rafsanjani having apparently delayed announcing his decision for fear of 'character assassination' by hardliners who resent his brand of conservative pragmatism. Conservative critics of the former president also resent the way Rafsanjani's supporters portray him as the only man capable of dealing with the growing international crisis surrounding Iran's nuclear programme. One close ally of Rafsanjani said that his election campaign was ready and merely awaiting an announcement. But another said he was seeking a meeting with supreme leader Ayat Ali Khamenei, to clarify issues surrounding the election. The election marks the end of the reformist presidency of Mohammad Khatami, who must stand down after two terms in office. Rafsanjani has in the past week faced growing hostility from Iran's hardline media, and eyebrows have been raised at the way Ayat Khamenei has apparently lent weight to the anti-Rafsanjani campaign. An election in which Ayat Khamenei backed a candidate against Rafsanjani could be hazardous for the regime, which usually keeps serious differences behind closed doors. But one senior official cautioned against being misled by appearances. He said: The leader's relationship with [Mr] Rafsanjani is like marriage, or a love-hate relationship. If the country faces a crisis, the leader will accept Rafsanjani standing". Nevertheless, during a ten-day tour of the southern province of Kerman, Ayat Khamenei's speeches have laid emphasis on security, which some analysts see as a message favouring Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, former Revolutionary Guard commander and police chief, and a conservative candidate in the June election. Ayat Khamenei has also argued that a new president should have "patience", a quality he has previously associated with youth. In a TV interview on May 7, Hossein Shariatmadari, the leader's appointee as editor-in-chief of Kayhan newspaper, said Ayat Khamenei's call for a young candidate was clear. At 43, Qalibaf is 27 years Rafsanjani's junior. But militant conservatives remain divided. The Council for Co-ordinating Revolutionary Forces backs the former head of state broadcasting Ali Larijani. The so-called 'Coalition of Four plus One', which includes Qalibaf, Mohsen Razaei, former chief commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, Tehran's mayor, and Iran's former foreign minister Ali Akbar Velayati, has yet to decide on a favoured candidate. A prominent deputy Ahmad Tavakoli, recently withdrew. Many analysts expect the hardline camp to coalesce around one candidate, even if this requires intervention from the office of Ayat Khamenei. The conservatives are confident of winning the election, and expect the Guardian Council, the constitutional watchdog, to disqualify Mostafa Moein, the main reformist candidate. A senior of reformist on May 10 denied a rumour that Mir Hossein Mousavi - PM during the 1980s when Ayat Ruhollah Khomeini led Iran - would take up the reformist banner with a late declaration. The Iranian media on May 9 reported an opinion poll by state TV that gave Rafsanjani the support of 32%, well ahead of Qalibaf at 14% and with no other candidate winning more than 10%. Such polls have proved unreliable, however, and the unpredictability of the election is underscored by the likelihood of a low turn-out. Should no candidate win more than half the votes on June 17, there would be a run-off two weeks later between the two candidates who poll best in the first round.
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Publication:APS Diplomat Recorder
Geographic Code:7IRAN
Date:May 14, 2005
Words:571
Previous Article:IRAN - May 8 - FM Spokesman Reiterates Uranium Work Plan.(Asefi)(Brief Article)
Next Article:IRAQ - May 8 - Jaafari Names Defence And Oil Ministers.(Ibrahim Al Jaafari)
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