IRAN - May 10 - Registration For Presidential Election Begins.
Registration for presidential election begins without final
confirmation that Akbar Hashemi Rasfanjani would stand again for the
post he held between 1989 and 1997. Candidates have until May 14 to
register for the June 17 election, with Rafsanjani having apparently
delayed announcing his decision for fear of 'character
assassination' by hardliners who resent his brand of conservative
pragmatism. Conservative critics of the former president also resent the
way Rafsanjani's supporters portray him as the only man capable of
dealing with the growing international crisis surrounding Iran's
nuclear programme. One close ally of Rafsanjani said that his election
campaign was ready and merely awaiting an announcement. But another said
he was seeking a meeting with supreme leader Ayat Ali Khamenei, to
clarify issues surrounding the election. The election marks the end of
the reformist presidency of Mohammad Khatami, who must stand down after
two terms in office. Rafsanjani has in the past week faced growing
hostility from Iran's hardline media, and eyebrows have been raised
at the way Ayat Khamenei has apparently lent weight to the
anti-Rafsanjani campaign. An election in which Ayat Khamenei backed a
candidate against Rafsanjani could be hazardous for the regime, which
usually keeps serious differences behind closed doors. But one senior
official cautioned against being misled by appearances. He said: The
leader's relationship with [Mr] Rafsanjani is like marriage, or a
love-hate relationship. If the country faces a crisis, the leader will
accept Rafsanjani standing". Nevertheless, during a ten-day tour of
the southern province of Kerman, Ayat Khamenei's speeches have laid
emphasis on security, which some analysts see as a message favouring
Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, former Revolutionary Guard commander and police
chief, and a conservative candidate in the June election. Ayat Khamenei
has also argued that a new president should have "patience", a
quality he has previously associated with youth. In a TV interview on
May 7, Hossein Shariatmadari, the leader's appointee as
editor-in-chief of Kayhan newspaper, said Ayat Khamenei's call for
a young candidate was clear. At 43, Qalibaf is 27 years
Rafsanjani's junior. But militant conservatives remain divided. The
Council for Co-ordinating Revolutionary Forces backs the former head of
state broadcasting Ali Larijani. The so-called 'Coalition of Four
plus One', which includes Qalibaf, Mohsen Razaei, former chief
commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad,
Tehran's mayor, and Iran's former foreign minister Ali Akbar
Velayati, has yet to decide on a favoured candidate. A prominent deputy
Ahmad Tavakoli, recently withdrew. Many analysts expect the hardline
camp to coalesce around one candidate, even if this requires
intervention from the office of Ayat Khamenei. The conservatives are
confident of winning the election, and expect the Guardian Council, the
constitutional watchdog, to disqualify Mostafa Moein, the main reformist
candidate. A senior of reformist on May 10 denied a rumour that Mir
Hossein Mousavi - PM during the 1980s when Ayat Ruhollah Khomeini led
Iran - would take up the reformist banner with a late declaration. The
Iranian media on May 9 reported an opinion poll by state TV that gave
Rafsanjani the support of 32%, well ahead of Qalibaf at 14% and with no
other candidate winning more than 10%. Such polls have proved
unreliable, however, and the unpredictability of the election is
underscored by the likelihood of a low turn-out. Should no candidate win
more than half the votes on June 17, there would be a run-off two weeks
later between the two candidates who poll best in the first round.
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