IRA'S ROLE LOST AMID VIOLENCE IN N. IRELAND.

Byline: Conor Cruise O'Brien 

AFTER the funeral Tuesday of three children killed by Protestant loyalists, a kind of quiet has returned to Northern Ireland.

The Protestant-Unionist side feels shame and confusion at the discredit brought on its cause by such a savage act. The marches by the Orangemen last week have been subdued, and the most feared one of all, in Portadown, east of Belfast, was poorly attended. And at the end of the week, police and British troops evicted the last of the protesters and confiscated weapons.

On the Catholic side the mood was also unusually calm, but for different reasons. Nationalists knew that they were looking good for the moment - anybody would by comparison with the Ballymoney murderers - and they naturally wanted to bask in that perception while it lasted.

On Monday, a Dublin newspaper ran the headline: ``A Price Too Great to Pay for a Fifteen-Minute Walk.'' The reference was to the right claimed by Protestants to walk down the Catholic Garvaghy Road in Portadown, the main focus of disturbances last week. The point is perfectly valid. But it tells only half the story. The price was far too great to pay for a 15-minute walk. But it was also far too great to pay for stopping a 15-minute walk.

Those who actually threw the firebomb and killed those children are in a category by themselves and wider considerations should never be allowed to mitigate their guilt. But we should also look for those who, wittingly or unwittingly, created the political context in which the children died - and we should not look in one direction only.

The Protestant Orangemen who wrongly insisted that they march through Catholic neighborhoods should bear a large share of the blame - and they are bearing it. But there are others who should also bear the blame. I refer to Sinn Fein and the Irish Republican Army.

The focus throughout the past week, and in similar debates over the past few years, has been on the Garvaghy Residents Association. It has been widely but dimly seen as representative of opinion in the Catholic area of Portadown. But there is evidence that the association is, in fact, controlled by the local IRA branch.

The unquestioned leader and spokesman of the association is Breandan MacCionnaidh, who was convicted of and served time for several crimes of violence. He is one of a number of undeniable IRA activists who have emerged as ``residents' representatives'' in various parts of Belfast and Derry in recent years. In such ways, the IRA can exert an amount of leverage within Northern Ireland out of all proportion to its actual membership.

Over the past 10 years or so, Sinn Fein-IRA has shown itself to be much more skillful, farsighted and consistent in its political operations than most of the democratic politicians are, whether in Northern Ireland, the Irish Republic or in mainland Britain. Last week they exploited the unpopularity of Orange marches in Catholic areas by concentrating their attention on those areas where their members could control and harden manifestations of that unpopularity.

The tiny enclave of the Garvaghy Road is ideal for this purpose. Sinn Fein has a strong core of support there, and any resident who may not like Sinn Fein knows better than to open his or her mouth.

Sinn Fein warned that there would be serious trouble if Protestants walked down the Garvaghy Road without first gaining ``the consent of the residents'' - meaning in that context the IRA, as all informed observers know.

The British government fell for the warning and sent in large numbers of troops to protect the residents, ensuring that the Orangemen would not be allowed to march down the Garvaghy Road.

As foreseen by Sinn Fein-IRA, and apparently not by the British, the deployment of the troops aroused an explosion of Protestant fury, directed in some places at local Catholics, but more extensively and assiduously at the police and at British troops.

From Sinn Fein's view, this has been an ideal outcome. It drives a wedge between the unionists of Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. That fury, directed extensively and assiduously at the police and at the British troops, makes the unionists' claim of ``loyalty'' look ridiculous as well as repulsive. And it increases the number of those in Britain who ask, Why do we go on staying in that awful place since that is the thanks we get?

The next couple of months are likely to be quieter than the last weeks have been. But when the Northern Ireland Assembly meets again in the autumn, the temperature could go up when Sinn Fein takes its seats in the 12-member executive house, which will in effect be Northern Ireland's government.

Meanwhile, Sinn Fein's masters, the IRA, retain all their weapons. David Trimble, the Protestant leader, believed he had a guarantee from the British prime minister, Tony Blair, that this would not happen.

All in all, the trend within the so-called peace process is in accord with the plans of Sinn Fein-IRA, and no one else's. I'm afraid that this could mean that Northern Ireland will see greater troubles than ever before.

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Photo

Photo: Pallbearers carry the coffins of Richard, Mark and Jason Quinn to funeral services in Rasharkin, Northern Ireland.

John Giles/Associated Press