IISRP sees continued regional growth.

The International Institute of Synthetic Rubber Producers forecasts for synthetic rubber consumption in Western and Central Europe, the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Middle East and Africa for the five-year period, 1998-2002 shows a mixed bag of predictions. All areas are expected to show growth lead by an expected rebound in the economics of the Commonwealth of Independent States.

Western Europe

Consumption of synthetic rubber (SR) in Western Europe is expected to increase at an annual rate of 1.8% over a five-year period, rising from an estimated 2,490 kt (thousand metric tons) in 1997 to 2,720 kt in 2002, according to the Institute's European Section Statistical Committee.

In comparison, the 2,490 kt consumption figure in 1997 represented an increase of 7.4% over 1996 when consumption was off 1.6%. Highlights in Western Europe include:

* SBR consumption (including emulsion and solution-polymerized material as well as high styrene) for 1997 is expected to increase 3.2% or 3.4 kt. Over the five-year term, an annualized growth rate of 0.6% is predicted. This is due mainly to the relocation of tire production from Western Europe to Central Europe. Solution SBR is estimated to increase at an annual rate of 6.8% while emulsion SBR is forecast to decrease at an annual rate of 1.6% through 2002, although forecast substitution of emulsion polymerized material by solution material may prove to be too conservative.

* Consumption of ethylene propylene rubber (EPDM) increased by 5.4% in 1997 and is expected to increase in line with the automotive industry with an annualized growth rate of 2.8% to 290 kt in 2002.

* NBR solid consumption is expected to grow by 1.9% annually to 98 kt.

* Consumption of polychloroprene rubber (CR) increased by 6.6% in 1997. Over the five year period 1998 to 2002 it is expected to remain flat or slightly decrease with 2002 consumption of 63 kt. Continued substitution of CR in the future is expected.

Central Europe

In Central Europe, growth in consumption over the period is expected to remain steady and high due to the partial relocation of the tire industry from Western Europe and a strong increase in local automotive production. Non-tire elastomers are expected to grow faster than Western European averages, with EPDM at 10.4%; NBR at 4.3%; and CR at 4.2% (annual average). Latex consumption will remain strong, but slightly off last year's forecast.

CIS 

In the Commonwealth of Independent States, consumption of SR in 1997 was down by 3.4% from 465 kt in 1996 to 449 kt. Consumption in 1998 is expected to increase by 4.5%, assuming that 1997 is the bottom of the downward trend experienced over the past seven years. Estimates for 2002 show consumption to continue to improve in both tire and non-tire applications.

Middle East and Africa

In the Middle East and Africa, consumption of SR increased by 2.4% in 1997 from 210 kt to 215 kt. Consumption in 1998 is expected to increase by 2.5% to 220 kt. It is expected to continue to increase at an average rate of 2.3% annually through 2002, with consumption of 241 kt.

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