IF FAULT'S A-ROCKIN', KEEP A-TALKIN'; SEISMOLOGISTS DISCUSS QUAKES' UNPREDICTABILITY.Byline: Eric Wahlgren Daily News Staff Writer Put a bunch of earthquake experts in a room together and they'll agree on at least one thing: The more they learn about quakes, the less certain they become about how to predict them. It was no different Monday, when a meeting of the California Earthquake Prediction An earthquake prediction is a prediction that an earthquake in a specific magnitude range will occur in a specific region and time window. Predictions are considered as such to the extent that they are reliable for practical, as well as scientific, purposes. Evaluation Council concluded that there is still no good way to predict when a big one might roll through town. Seismologists generally say that if there's a foreshock fore·shock n. A minor tremor of the earth that precedes a larger earthquake originating at approximately the same location. Noun 1. - a smaller shaker that precedes a quake - that measures at least 5.0 on the Richter scale Richter scale (rĭk`tər), measure of the magnitude of seismic waves from an earthquake, devised in 1935 by the American seismologist Charles F. Richter (1900–1985). , then there's a 5 percent to 10 percent chance of a larger quake hitting within seven days. But the more time scientists spend time studying a particular fault line to better predict earthquakes in a precise area, the more they realize they don't really have a useful formula for calling the next temblor. ``As we learn more, we increase our uncertainty about what is going on,'' seismologist seis·mol·o·gy n. The geophysical science of earthquakes and the mechanical properties of the earth. seis Andrew J. Michael told the earthquake prediction council gathering. The council, made up of earthquake experts and state disaster planning disaster planning - disaster recovery officials, meets regularly to come up with ways to better prepare Californians for earthquakes. Michael, of the U.S. Geological Survey, has studied Parkfield, a hotbed hotbed, low, glass-covered frame structure for starting tender plants. It differs from a cold frame only in that the soil is heated—either artificially as by underground electric wiring or steampipes, or naturally with partially fermented stable manure, which of seismic activity in Monterey County. He and seismologist Lucy Jones have noted patterns between foreshocks and earthquakes. Yet for all their studies, the temblors of a 6.0 magnitude or greater they predicted for the Parkfield area in 1992 and 1993 did not occur. The scientists blamed it on miscalculations. They said new calculations have enabled them to better avoid false predictions. But they also said that further study of the area revealed that there is no good way to figure out when the next big one will hit a particular area. |
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