How to read a roadmap: roadmaps are invaluable but can be misunderstood. A roadmap may claim that microvias are standard technology, for example, but it doesn't mean they are standard for every PCB shop.Roadmapping is not a new activity. Corporations such as Motorola (Motorola, Inc., Schaumburg, IL, www.motorola.com) A leading manufacturer of semiconductor devices, electronics, telecommunications and satellite systems. Founded in Chicago in 1928 by Paul V. in the U.S. and Phillips Phil·lips A trademark used for a screw with a head having two intersecting perpendicular slots and for a screwdriver with a tip shaped to fit into these slots. in Europe Europe (y  r`əp), 6th largest continent, c.4,000,000 sq mi (10,360,000 sq km) including adjacent islands (1992 est. pop. 512,000,000). have decades of experience using
roadmaps. Technology roadmaps The context of product managementThe existence of product managers in the product software industry indicates that software is becoming more and more commercialized as a standard product. are mechanisms enabling industry, academia, private researchers and governments to identify the new critical technologies, skills and competencies required to meet future market demands. Typically roadmaps are an accumulation of tables representing how an attribute changes over some time period. But what do all those tables mean? Do the numbers in the tables represent the OEM's next generation of products or the products where the OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) The rebranding of equipment and selling it. The term initially referred to the company that made the products (the "original" manufacturer), but eventually became widely used to refer to the organization that buys the products and makes most of its revenue? Do the numbers represent realistic needs for future product development or just a wish list that the OEM has put together, with the ultimate goal of reducing purchasing costs? In April 2002 PC FAB A manufacturing plant that makes semiconductor devices. As of 2005, the top 10 semiconductor companies worldwide based on sales and ranked starting with the largest were Intel, Samsung, Renesas (Hitachi-Mitsubishi merger), Texas Instruments, Toshiba, Infineon, STMicroelectronics, NEC, published an article that discussed some of the differences in national technology roadmaps. (1) That article identified differences in the roadmaps in: * Team makeup makeup In the performing arts, material used by actors for cosmetic purposes and to help create the characters they play. Not needed in Greek and Roman theatre because of the use of masks, makeup was used in the religious plays of medieval Europe, in which the angels' faces . * Emulator Hardware, software or a combination of the two that enables a computer to act like another computer and run applications written for that computer. In the past, it was often a hardware add-on that actually contained an instruction execution module for the emulated computer. preparation and data. * Ramp-up production curve. This month we add to that discussion one more factor--Focus and Foundation--and review and analyze one table from each of the roadmaps in order to provide a better understanding. Focus and Foundation All roadmaps have a focus that is usually stated early in the document. The IPC (1) (InterProcess Communication) The exchange of data between one program and another either within the same computer or over a network. It implies a protocol that guarantees a response to a request. roadmap's stated focus is "electronic interconnections including the processes and materials for fabrication fabrication (fab´rikā´sh  n),n the construction or making of a restoration. , plus the attachment mounting of electronic components." (2) Knowing the focus helps the reader to understand the scope of the roadmap A roadmap may refer to:
Contraction of does not. reveal the foundation of the roadmap. The foundation is much harder to determine than the focus. It is not generally stated anywhere in the roadmap discussion. It is often not intentionally in·ten·tion·al adj. 1. Done deliberately; intended: an intentional slight. See Synonyms at voluntary. 2. Having to do with intention. planned by the sponsors of the roadmap; rather, it occurs naturally. For example, the silicon industry roadmap, The International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors The International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors is a set of documents produced by a group of semiconductor industry experts. These experts are representative of the sponsoring organisations which include the Semiconductor Industry Associations of the US, Europe, Japan, , has a research-based foundation. The other two U.S. national technology roadmaps are not as research-based as is the ITRS ITRS International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors ITRS International Terrestrial Reference System ITRS International Transaction Reporting System (EU) ITRS International Technical Rescue Symposium roadmap. Reason: The semiconductor industry spends approximately 10% of its revenues on R&D. By contrast, the PCB PCB: see polychlorinated biphenyl. PCB in full polychlorinated biphenyl Any of a class of highly stable organic compounds prepared by the reaction of chlorine with biphenyl, a two-ring compound. industry spends less than 1% of its revenues on R&D. As such, researchers from government and academia who rely on research dollars to stay in business naturally drift drift, deposit of mixed clay, gravel, sand, and boulders transported and laid down by glaciers. Stratified, or glaciofluvial, drift is carried by waters flowing from the melting ice of a glacier. toward the ITRS roadmap. The foundation of the NEMI NEMI National Electronics Manufacturing Initiative NEMI National Environmental Methods Index roadmaps is based on OEM products. The persons whom most influence the NEMI roadmap are OEM new product planners, not researchers or manufacturing process engineers. At IPC, the greatest influence comes from the manufacturing infrastructure--process engineers, materials engineers This is a list of materials engineers, people who were trained in Materials Engineering. For other disciplines, see list of engineers.
It is notable that all three North American North American named after North America. North American blastomycosis see North American blastomycosis. North American cattle tick see boophilusannulatus. roadmaps are influenced most by groups with different backgrounds and each would potentially have a different use for the data. There is nothing faulty fault·y adj. fault·i·er, fault·i·est 1. Containing a fault or defect; imperfect or defective. 2. Obsolete Deserving of blame; guilty. about any of these influences; in fact, it may just be the natural order of things. The point is, even at this early stage of comparison the roadmaps are already revealing differences. Japanese Japanese (jăp'ənēz`), language of uncertain origin that is spoken by more than 125 million people, most of whom live in Japan. There are also many speakers of Japanese in the Ryukyu Islands, Korea, Taiwan, parts of the United States, and roadmaps add another factor into the equation. U.S. roadmaps are generally "needs" driven: The authors try to determine future product needs and plan the roadmap to satisfy those needs. Japanese roadmaps do this too, but they add a dimension: marketing. Via their roadmaps, the Japanese market their technology leadership. A good example of this is the Japanese Jisso roadmap. In these roadmaps the authors compare Japanese technology with the IPC and SIA Sia (sī`ə) or Siaha (sī`əhə), in the Bible, family returned from the Exile. SIA - Serial Interface Adaptor roadmaps. There are actually tables that demonstrate this comparison. (Curiously, the Japanese always seem to be slightly ahead.) To the periodic reader of roadmaps this piece of the foundation is not obvious nor is the information readily available, but it significantly influences the roadmap output. Understanding Roadmap Tables IPC. TABLE 1 comes from the chapter on organic product boards in the IPC roadmap. This table describes how phototools need to change to meet technology requirements over the roadmap time flame of 10 years. There are four rime periods: current, near-, mid- mid- pref. Middle: midbrain. and long-term Long-term Three or more years. In the context of accounting, more than 1 year. long-term 1. Of or relating to a gain or loss in the value of a security that has been held over a specific length of time. Compare short-term. . Each period is then divided into two columns: RCG RCG Responsible Conduct of Gambling RCG Revolutionary Communist Group (Northern Ireland) RCG Raiffeisen Central Genossenschaft (German: Raiffeisen Cooperative) RCG Race, Class and Gender , or revenue center of gravity, and SoA, or state of the art. IPC's is the only North American roadmap that differentiates these production classes. (The Japanese Jisso roadmap also uses differentiators.) SoA is defined as technology that the OEM is just bringing to market. It is manufactured in much lower volumes than RCG and is often manufactured on one-of-a-kind or specially modified tools and unique processes that may still require constant monitoring. RCG is defined as technology that the OEM uses to make 85-95% of its revenue. This includes very high volume production, usually available from multiple sources worldwide and produced with tools and processes readily available to industry. The difficulty with these technology differentiators is that there can still be variation from PCB manufacturer to manufacturer. For example, the roadmap can stare that 150 [micro]m microvias are RCG and 60 [micro]m microvias are SoA and this would be accurate for manufacturers that make microvias. However, for manufacturers that do not make microvias as a regular part of their business, making a 150 [micro]m microvia would be very difficult or impossible. Roadmaps are used for many different reasons and misinterpreting the roadmap data can be a problem. For example, a PCBs buyer might wrongly assume that because the roadmap says that 150 [micro]m microvias are RCG, every PCB shop can produce them at high volume and at minimum cost. Reading this table further, we can see the attributes that the roadmap authors consider significant for photo-tool requirements. To wit, we see that "Feature Size" RCG needs will shift from 125 [micro]m in 2002 to 75 [micro]m in 2012, a decrease of 50 [micro]m in 10 years. The corresponding SoA requirement will change from 50 [micro]m today to 30 [micro]m in 2012. The other attributes change similarly. Although the 2002 roadmap did not contain a similar table for organic packaging substrates, because of the increased density requirements the needs would be tighter for the same attributes. TABLE 2 is also from the organic product board chapter and would be interpreted the same as Table 1. NEMI. TABLE 3 is a portion of a table taken from the 2002 NEMI roadmap optoelectronics See optoelectronic. chapter. (3) This chapter is a comprehensive review of the status and fixture An article in the nature of Personal Property which has been so annexed to the realty that it is regarded as a part of the real property. That which is fixed or attached to something permanently as an appendage and is not removable. of optoelectronics technology. Time periods in the NEMI roadmap are again divided into four segments: 2002, 2005, 2010 and 2015. In this case we can see that the data discuss technology at a much higher level than that of the IPC roadmap. There are two reasons for this. First, the IPC roadmap is an "operational level" roadmap; it provides data at the operation level of PCB manufacturing and assembly. NEMI's roadmap looks at the entire electronics industry and from a higher perspective than IPC's. Second, optoelectronics is still in its infancy infancy, stage of human development lasting from birth to approximately two years of age. The hallmarks of infancy are physical growth, motor development, vocal development, and cognitive and social development. and there is not a lot of operational level data available, especially concerning optoelectronic Refers to devices that function due to the interaction of light and electronics. For example, an electronic signal is the input to a laser diode, which generates light pulses that are transmitted through an optical fiber. substrates. Table 3 provides a nice overview of the market drivers, level 2 needs and substrate The base layer of a structure such as a chip, multichip module (MCM), printed circuit board or disk platter. Silicon is the most widely used substrate for chips. Fiberglass (FR4) is mostly used for printed circuit boards, and ceramic is used for MCMs. needs at a high level. Analyzing the substrates row, we see separate electrical PCBs and point-to-point Refers to a communications line that provides a path from one location to another (point A to point B). Contrast with multipoint. optical in 2002. By 2005 a surface laminated laminated /lam·i·nat·ed/ (-nat?ed) having, composed of, or arranged in layers or laminae. laminated made up of laminae or thin layers. fiber plane emerges, a type of decal that would contain optical fiber and attaches to the PCB surface. The first sign of buried bur·y tr.v. bur·ied, bur·y·ing, bur·ies 1. To place in the ground: bury a bone. 2. a. To place (a corpse) in a grave, a tomb, or the sea; inter. b. waveguides appears in 2010. ITRS. TABLE 4 is an excerpt ex·cerpt n. A passage or segment taken from a longer work, such as a literary or musical composition, a document, or a film. tr.v. ex·cerpt·ed, ex·cerpt·ing, ex·cerpts 1. of a very large table in the ITRS roadmap. (4) In this table, we see bali grid array and chipscale package attributes with the corresponding PCB line widths and spaces requirements for escape from under the component. This table shows a significant decrease in solder ball In BGA chip packages, it is the tiny globe of solder that provides the contact between the chip package and the printed circuit board. Also called a "solder bump." See BGA. pad pitch, down to a very tight 0.1 mm in 2018. We see a corresponding decrease in line widths and spaces: 12 [micro]m (0.005") lines and spaces will be required to escape from under the components. In April 2002 we discussed the aggressiveness of the ITRS roadmap predictions; this table is a good example. Jisso. TABLES 5 and 6 are taken from the Jisso roadmap. (5) The Jisso roadmap has been published twice in Japan, with both later translated into English 1. English - (Obsolete) The source code for a program, which may be in any language, as opposed to the linkable or executable binary produced from it by a compiler. The idea behind the term is that to a real hacker, a program written in his favourite programming language is . Table 5 is the production classification used in Japan. It is similar to IPC's but adds one class. Table 6 is the material characteristics that the authors think will be needed for future products. Looking at some of the attributes we see that in 2010 Tg is expected to rise substantially for all classes. At present Tg is 130[degrees]C for Class A, 165[degrees]C for Class B and 185[degrees]C for Class C. It will rise to 185[degrees]C, 210[degrees]C and 260[degrees]C, respectively, probably because of the higher temperatures of lead-free adj. 1. not containing the element lead. 2. Not containing a lead additive such as tetraethyllead or tetramethyllead; - of gasoline; as, Most modern cars run on lead-free gasoline s>. Oposite of leaded nt>. 3. solders. In 2010, Class A dielectric dielectric (dī'ĭlĕk`trĭk), material that does not conduct electricity readily, i.e., an insulator (see insulation). A good dielectric should also have other properties: It must resist breakdown under high voltages; it should not characteristics (dielectric constant dielectric constant n. See permittivity. and dissipation factor In physics, the dissipation factor (DF) is a measure of loss-rate of power of a mechanical mode, such as an oscillation, in a dissipative system. For example, electric power is lost in all dielectric materials, usually in the form of heat. ) will be the same as the current characteristics (DK: 4.7; dissipation factor: 0.015). For Class B, corresponding to higher frequency of electronics products in which the PCB is used, Dk needs to be reduced from 4.5 at present to 3.0 and dissipation factor from 0.013 to 0.005. For Class C, Dk needs to be reduced from 3.5 to 2.0 and dissipation factor from 0.007 to 0.001. To achieve the requirements of Class C, it will be necessary to develop new resin resin, any of a class of amorphous solids or semisolids. Resins are found in nature and are chiefly of vegetable origin. They are typically light yellow to dark brown in color; tasteless; odorless or faintly aromatic; translucent or transparent; brittle, fracturing and reinforcing materials. We can see that each roadmap looks at technology from a different viewpoint. The differences make it difficult to bridge the documents, but it can be done if one understands each roadmap's purpose and focus and considers that purpose when analyzing the attribute data.
TABLE 1. Phototool Requirements
ATTRIBUTE CURRENT NEAR TERM
2002-2003 2004-2005
RCG SoA RCG SoA
Feature Size
([micro]m) 125 50 100 45
Feature
Tolerance
([micro]m) [+ or -] 25 [+ or -] 10 [+ or -] 20 [+ or -] 9
Location
Accuracy
([micro]m) [+ or -] 40 [+ or -] 15 [+ or -] 35 [+ or -] 15
PPM [degrees]C 18 14 17 12
PPM %RH 12 8 8 6
ATTRIBUTE MID TERM LONG TERM
2006-2007 2008-2012
RCG SoA RCG SoA
Feature Size
([micro]m) 80 38 75 30
Feature
Tolerance
([micro]m) [+ or -] 15 [+ or -] 7 [+ or -] 15 [+ or -] 6
Location
Accuracy
([micro]m) [+ or -] 30 [+ or -] 12 [+ or -] 25 [+ or -] 10
PPM [degrees]C 14 10 12 8
PPM %RH 7 5 6 4
RCG: Conventional (practiced by 95% of the industry). SoA: State of the
art (practiced by 5% of the industry). Source: IPC National Technology
Roadmap
TABLE 2. Innerlayer Imaging
ATTRIBUTE CURRENT NEAR TERM MID TERM LONG TERM
2002-2003 2004-2005 2006-2007 2008-2012
RCG SoA RCG SoA RCG SoA RCG SoA
Feature Size
([micro]m) 125 50 100 45 80 38 75 30
Tolerance
([micro]m) 35 10 25 9 20 7 15 5
Defect Size as
% of Image 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
RCG: Conventional (practiced by 95% of the industry). SoA: State of the
art (practiced by 5% of the industry). Source: IPC National Technology
Roadmap
TABLE 3. NEMI Roadmap on Optical Technology
TECHNOLOGY 2002 2005
Market drivers Unchecked network SP OpEx reduction--%
growth. revenue growth / %
headcount > 10.
Service provider
consolidation. SP ROI improvement,
cost reduction ~50%.
Maximize use of
installed Incremental capex
infrastructure--0 capex model--capital tied to
model. each service revenue
connection.
Asian market growth.
Access enablement and
edge growth.
OE Level 2 Function Long haul: OC48-192 Long haul: OC192-768,
and Application 2.5-10 Gbps. SONET/SDH 10-40 Gbps, 160
80% (excess capacity), [lambda].
OEO conversion CDR.
Metro, access: IP,
Metro, access: ATM, IP SONET on (C)WDM optical
on T1/DS3 phy, some phy.
OCN.
SAN/LAN, FTT,
SAN/LAN, last mile: automotive, wireless:
relatively low volume. 10 GigE, IP (growth
strongly dependent on
cost), optical phy and
10/100/1000 phy
consumption.
Substrates Separate electrical Surface laminated fiber
PCBs and point-to-point planes, connector
optical fiber. terminated. First
generation optical
Laminated fiber bundles backplanes (passive
and harnesses with optical
connector termination. interconnection).
Module-module
(CPU-memory).
TECHNOLOGY 2010 2015
Market drivers Network(s) integration. Protocol
simplification.
Seamless scalability.
Network consolidation.
Core BW growth ramps.
Hi-B/W wireless.
Edge applications grow.
OE Level 2 Function Long haul: 40-160 Gbps, Optical domain packet
and Application AON, [lambda] and bit-level
provisioning, switching.
restoration and 10G
logical layer Solitons--new physical
management. medium.
Access: 100 GigE, IP-optical--GMPLS
(D)WDM, 10/100GBE interworking.
switches--GbE on
wireless and optical 40G logical layer mgt.
phy.
Phy bridging systems.
SAN/LAN, FTT,
automotive, wireless,
end customer/venue
media: 10-100 GigE,
CWDM.
Substrates Embedded optical Standard platform,
waveguides with integrated OE
any-point interconnects components and
(connector and substrates (opto PCB,
component). PLC, or other).
Optical backplanes, Edge-to-edge or
pluggable stackable connectivity.
daughtercards.
Source: NEMI Roadmaps
TABLE 4. BGA and FBGA/CSP Package PCB Solutions
YEAR OF PRODUCTION 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
FBGA/CSP solder ball
pad pitch (mm) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Pad size ([micro]m) 160 160 120 120 80 80
Line width ([micro]m) 48 48 36 36 24 24
Line spacing ([micro]m) 48 48 36 36 24 24
No. rows accessed 3 3 3 3 3 3
YEAR OF PRODUCTION 2009 2012 2015 2018
FBGA/CSP solder ball
pad pitch (mm) 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.1
Pad size ([micro]m) 80 60 60 40
Line width ([micro]m) 24 18 18 12
Line spacing ([micro]m) 24 18 18 12
No. rows accessed 3 3 3 3
Source: ITRS Roadmap
TABLE 5. Classified Production Technology Difficulties
CLASS REQUIRED PRODUCTION PRODUCTION COST
TECHNOLOGY RATIO
Class A General technology 80% Reasonable
(conventional)
Class B Advanced technology 15% Cost up
(leading edge)
Class C Most advanced 5% High cost
(state of the art) technology
Source: Jisso Roadmap
TABLE 6. Characteristics of Multilayer PCB Base Materials
ITEM CLASS 2000 2003 2005 2010
Tg ([degrees]C) Class A 130 150 165 185
Class B 165 185 200 210
Class C 185 210 230 260
Dk (@t MHz) Class A 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7
Class B 4.5 4.5 3.5 3.0
Class C 3.5 3.5 3.0 2.0
Dielectric Class A 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015
dissipation factor Class B 0.013 0.010 0.007 0.005
(@1 MHz) Class C 0.007 0.003 0.003 0.001
CTE (ppm/[degrees]C) Class A 16 16 14 14
Class B 14 14 10 8
Class C 10 10 9 6
Solder heat tolerance Class A 260/30 260/30 260/30 260/30
(Max.[degrees]/s) Class B 260/180 260/180 260/180 260/180
Class C 288/180 288/180 288/180 288/180
Copper foil peel Class A 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
strength (kN/m) Class B 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3
Class C 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5
Flexural strength Class A 490 490 490 490
(N/[mm.sup.2]) Class B 490 490 490 490
Class C 550 550 550 550
Modules in flexure Class A 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5
(GPa) Class B 24.6 27.5 27.5 27.5
Class C 30 30 30 30
Moisture absorption Class A 0.25 0.20 0.10 0.10
D-25/24 (%) Class B 0.20 0.10 0.08 0.05
Class C 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.02
Source: Jisso Roadmap
REFERENCES (1.) Jack Fisher John Howard Fisher (born March 4, 1939 in Frostburg, Maryland) was a Major League Baseball pitcher. The right-hander was signed by the Baltimore Orioles as an amateur free agent on June 24, 1957. , "Understanding Roadmaps," PC FAB, April 2002. (2.) IPC, 2002/2003 National Technology Roadmap for Electronic Interconnections, March 2003. (3.) NEMI, NEMI Technology Roadmaps, December 2002. (4.) ITRS, International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors, 2003. (5.) International Sematech, Japan Jisso Technology Roadmap, 2001. JACK FISHER is founder of Interconnect (1) To attach one device to another. (2) A physical port (plug, socket) or wireless port (transmitter, receiver) used to attach one device to another. Technology Consultants and a member of the PCD&M Editorial Review Board. He can be reached at 512-930 5666; fish5er@mindspring.com. |
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