How To Fix Iran, Syria & US-Led Moves.

The Financial Times on Sept. 12 quoted UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan as urging Iran and Syria, regarded as pariah states by the US, to work with the international community to stabilise peace in Lebanon and settle the crisis in the wider region if they wanted to be accepted as full members of the family of nations. Speaking at the end of a hectic two-week diplomatic mission to the region, including visits to Tehran and Damascus, Annan said he believed both "will have to take some responsibilities" if they were to overcome their isolation. But after talks with both Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad and Syrian President Assad, he concluded that they were "very keen to be accepted and have normal relations with the rest of the world".

At the same time, Annan spelt out his concern that the ongoing violence in Iraq had radicalised opinion in the region, while Arab rulers were "scared stiff" of another crisis between the US and Iran over that country's nuclear programme, saying: "This region cannot take another crisis".

Leaders in the region, where he visited Israel and Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, as well as Iran and Syria, were worried about growing hostility towards the US. Annan added: "Iraq has really caused a problem. It has radicalised the region. America is in a situation now where it cannot stay, and it cannot leave. Some argue that its presence is a problem; the other side, that if it leaves, the situation will get much worse. So whatever the US has to do, the timing of any withdrawal must be optimal, in the sense that it will do least harm, and will not trigger disintegration of Iraq, when the region and the world will blame the US".

The UN secretary-general, who has less than four months left in office, spelt out his hope that stabilising peace in Lebanon might provide a basis for a comprehensive peace process in the region, including "the Palestinian problem, the Syrian problem and the Lebanese problem". But he admitted that the situation was complicated by tensions with the US over both Iran and Iraq.

When in Iran and Syria, the backers of Hizbullah in Lebanon, Annan urged both governments to help cut off the flow of arms to non-government forces in the country. Assad said he would step up border patrols but Ahmadi-Nejad stopped short of giving a firm assurance. Annan said he did not believe either regime - Iran's theocracy and Syria's Ba'thist dictatorship - revelled in its pariah status, adding: "It is a question of having no choice. Syria's behaviour has isolated itself, but I think it is bravado. Iran is very keen to be accepted and have normal relations with the rest of the world".

On Iran's nuclear programme, Annan said: "I think we are headed for a confrontation, unless we find a way to get all the people to step back a bit and reflect. But I am not sure how much room for flexibility either side is going to give". He said Iran's leaders "are living with the fear that they may be attacked. Their economy is not so strong. They are not making as much progress as other countries. When they travel in the region they see how even smaller countries are moving on. But they have sanctions, they are isolated, they are having plane crashes because they cannot get spare parts. Who will say, this is the way we want to be? A country that is a major oil producer [Iran] does not have a single oil refinery. (Iran imports 29.9m litres/day of its 73.1m l/d gasoline needs, costing the state US$7.5 bn in fiscal 2006/07). It does not make sense".

Yet as far as Iran's nuclear ambitions were concerned, Annan said the Tehran government was "very confident, rightly or wrongly. [It] will not bend, and is prepared for the worst". Annan was particularly stunned by Ahmadi-Nejad's sense of supremacy, with the Iranian president having recently called Mr. Bush "nothing" in the face of Ja'fari Islam.

The primary purpose of Annan's trip was to bolster support for the Lebanon peace plan. On that score he persuaded EU member-states, including France, Italy and Spain, to step up contributions to the UN peacekeeping force which will back the Lebanese army in the south of the country, and provide naval patrols. He overcame initial Israeli opposition to persuade Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to lift his air and sea blockade of Lebanon. And he gained the backing of both Israel and Hizbullah for the UN to broker a deal for the release of the two Israeli soldiers abducted by Hizbullah on July 12. But Hizbullah has shown preference for mediation by Germany in the proposed exchange of prisoners with Israel.