Housing starts rebound in May. (Industry Forecast & Update).Housing starts rebounded sharply in May. Apparently, the result is because of lower mortgage interest rates, which offset a somewhat muddled mud·dle v. mud·dled, mud·dling, mud·dles v.tr. 1. To make turbid or muddy. 2. To mix confusedly; jumble. 3. To confuse or befuddle (the mind), as with alcohol. economic recovery, and sluggish labor markets labor market A place where labor is exchanged for wages; an LM is defined by geography, education and technical expertise, occupation, licensure or certification requirements, and job experience . Also it is obvious that the sharp drop in the April level of housing starts was a statistical outlier outlier /out·li·er/ (out´li-er) an observation so distant from the central mass of the data that it noticeably influences results. outlier an extremely high or low value lying beyond the range of the bulk of the data. . Housing starts in May rose 11.6 percent to a 1.733 million unit seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted Mathematically adjusted by moderating a macroeconomic indicator (e.g., oil prices/imports) so that relative comparisons can be drawn from month to month all year. annual rate, from a revised 1.553 million unit rate for April, according to according to prep. 1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of: according to historians. 2. In keeping with: according to instructions. 3. the U.S. Department of Commerce. The May starts rate is the highest since the 1.788 million unit level in February February: see month. . Single-family sin·gle-fam·i·ly adj. Relating to or being a dwelling designed for one family only: a single-family home; single-family occupancy. starts occurred at a 1.389 million unit rate last month, up 9.6 percent from the 1.267 million unit rate for April. Multifamily starts jumped 20.3 percent in May to a 344,000 unit annual rate from the 286,000 unit rate for April. Starts of apartment units (in structures with five or more units) rose 23.2 percent in May to a 319,000 unit rate from a 259,000 unit rate a month earlier. Building permit activity occurred at a 1.674 million unit rate in May, up 2.6 percent from the 1.631 million unit rate for April. Single-family permits increased 0.7 percent. Total multifamily permits rose 9.1 percent, with the apartment component rising 11.3 percent. Housing starts rose in all regions of the country. They rose 24 percent in the Midwest Midwest or Middle West, region of the United States centered on the western Great Lakes and the upper-middle Mississippi valley. It is a somewhat imprecise term that has been applied to the northern section of the land between the Appalachians ; 22.4 percent on the Northeast “Northeastern” redirects here. For the Boston college, see Northeastern University, Boston. Northeast or north east is the ordinal direction halfway between north and east. It is the opposite of southwest. See boxing the compass. ; 10 percent in the West; and 6 percent in the South. Starts rose 4.4 percent during the first five months of this year, versus the same period a year ago. Single-family starts accounted for the increase with a 5.6 percent rise. Multifamily starts were essentially unchanged, declining just 0.3 percent. Rental RENTAL. A roll or list of the rents of an estate containing the description of the lands let, the names of the tenants, and other particulars connected with such estate. This is the same as rent roll, from which it is said to be corrupted. Market and Economic Update--June Both the rental housing market and economy are giving mixed signals. Rent increases continue to moderate, but apartment construction rose in April. The economy continues to grow, but probably at a more modest pace as consumers became more cautious in June June: see month. due to weak labor and equity markets. On a positive note, inflation and interest rates remain low, and gains are being seen in productivity. Rental Housing Market * Rent increases in May, as measured in the consumer price index (CPI (1) (Characters Per Inch) The measurement of the density of characters per inch on tape or paper. A printer's CPI button switches character pitch. (2) (Counts Per I ) data, increased at an annual growth rate of 1.8 percent for the second month in a row. Rent changes continue to be effected by higher vacancy VACANCY. A place which is empty. The term is principally applied to cases where an office is not filled. 2. By the constitution of the United States, the president has the power to fill up vacancies that may happen during the recess of the senate. rates and a sluggish labor market. * New apartment construction starts rebounded sharply in April to seasonally adjusted annual rate of 319,000 units, revised from the 259,000-unit rate for March. The March rate was the lowest since October October: see month. 2001. Apartment starts for the first four months of this year are ahead of last year. The Economy * Improved corporate profits are needed to induce in·duce v. 1. To bring about or stimulate the occurrence of something, such as labor. 2. To initiate or increase the production of an enzyme or other protein at the level of genetic transcription. 3. businesses to raise their investment levels. They did rise in first quarter 2002. Corporate profits were above 2001 levels for third quarter 2000. * The Conference Board's Survey of Consumer Confidence became slightly more positive in May. The muddled state of equity markets and soft labor markets, however, may be making consumers more wary about economic conditions. The University of Michigan's drop of seven points affected the Sentiment Index sentiment index A numerical guide to investor feeling toward the securities markets that is constructed to determine whether certain segments of the investment community are bullish or bearish. , which indicates the country's feelings about the state of the economy. * Personal income data suggests a slowdown For articles with similar titles, see Slow Down (disambiguation). A slowdown is an industrial action in which employees perform their duties but seek to reduce productivity or efficiency in their performance of these duties. in the recovery of the economy. Adjusted for inflation, Per Capita [Latin, By the heads or polls.] A term used in the Descent and Distribution of the estate of one who dies without a will. It means to share and share alike according to the number of individuals. Disposable disposable Nursing adjective Referring to that which is discarded or disposed of noun An item used in health care-related Pt contact which is discarded after use–eg masks, gloves, gowns, needles, paper products, syringes, wipes. See Biohazardous waste. Personal Income declined in April, making it the first time it dropped since October 2001. It is a reflection of the economic disruption disruption /dis·rup·tion/ (dis-rup´shun) a morphologic defect resulting from the extrinsic breakdown of, or interference with, a developmental process. caused by September September: see month. 11. Labor Markets * The labor market remains weak. Only 41,000 jobs were gained in May, according to the establishment survey. And the number of jobs gained in April dropped from 43,000 to only 6,000. Marked downward revisions ReVisions is a 2004 anthology of alternate history short-stories. It is edited by Julie E. Czerneda and Isaac Szpindel. Contents Title Author The Resonance of Light James Alan Gardner Out of China Julie E. in employment gains for the previous month have occurred in each of the past three months. * The drop in the Unemployment Rate to 5.8 percent is probably a statistical anomaly Abnormality or deviation. Pronounced "uh-nom-uh-lee," it is a favorite word among computer people when complex systems produce output that is inexplicable. See software conflict and anomaly detection. in the household survey that is used as a basis for its calculation. The household survey is more volatile With regard to computer memory, it means "temporary" and not "highly changeable," which is the usual meaning of the word. See volatile memory. 1. (programming) volatile - volatile variable. 2. (storage) volatile - See non-volatile storage. than the establishment survey. It would not be surprising if the unemployment rate increases in June. * The seasonally adjusted annual rate of unemployment among construction workers again fell to 8.9 percent in May. It was 9.3 percent in April. Inflation and Interest Rates * The interest rates for mortgages have fallen, and again are near their 40-year low. The rate dropped as a result of the Federal Reserve Board's neutral policy, strong productivity growth, low inflation and an expected weaker economic recovery than was previously anticipated. Low mortgage interest rates and an increasing bias for homeownership in public policy are likely to raise the homeownership rate further in coming months. * The Federal Reserve Board's Open Market Committe maintained a neutral monetary policy at its June 25-26 meeting, and choose to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.75 percent, keeping them at their 40-year low. * CPI was unchanged in May as energy prices began to moderate. More importantly, from an economic policy perspective, is the modest 2.4 percent annual rate of increase in the core rate of inflation in May. The core rate excludes food and energy prices, which tend to be volatile. * The Building Materials Building materials used in the construction industry to create . These categories of materials and products are used by and construction project managers to specify the materials and methods used for . and Component Cost Index moderated to a 1.8 percent annualized annualized Of or relating to a variable that has been mathematically converted to a yearly rate. Inflation and interest rates are generally annualized since it is on this basis that these two variables are ordinarily stated and compared. rate of increase in May after rising at a 6.8 percent rate in April. The effect of higher energy costs appears to have worked its way through the sector. Declines in lumber lumber, term for timber that has been cut into boards for use as a building material. The major steps in producing lumber involve logging (the felling and preparation of timber for shipment to sawmills), sawing the logs into boards, grading the boards according to and plywood plywood, manufactured board composed of an odd number of thin sheets of wood glued together under pressure with grains of the successive layers at right angles. Laminated wood differs from plywood in that the grains of its sheets are parallel. prices from recent highs also helped. The Gypsum gypsum (jĭp`səm), mineral composed of calcium sulfate (calcium, sulfur, and oxygen) with two molecules of water, CaSO4·2H2O. It is the most common sulfate mineral, occurring in many places in a variety of forms. Building Materials price index rose sharply for the second month in a row as the two-year run of more than 65 percent slide in prices ended. Robert Robert, Henry Martyn 1837-1923. American army engineer and parliamentary authority. He designed the defenses for Washington, D.C., during the Civil War and later wrote Robert's Rules of Order (1876). Noun 1. J. Sheehan People whose surname is or was Sheehan include:
An economist is an expert in the social science of economics.[1] . He can be reached at 703/893-9185 or via e-mail at gdad@erols.com.
HOUSING CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY
(units in thousands)
Housing Starts
(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates)
Apr. May Change Apr. to May
Month 2002 2002 No. %
Total 1,553 1,733 180 11.6%
Single Family 1,267 1,389 122 9.6%
Multifamily 286 344 58 20.3%
2 to 4 units 27 25 -2 -7.4%
5 or more units 259 319 60 23.2%
Northeast 134 164 30 22.4%
Midwest 279 346 67 24.0%
South 769 815 46 6.0%
West 371 408 37 10.0%
Chang 2001-02
1st Five Months 2001 2002 No. %
Total 652.9 681.6 28.7 4.4%
Single Family 521.9 551.0 29.1 5.6%
Multifamily 131.0 130.6 -0.4 -0.3%
2 to 4 units 13.9 15.8 1.9 13.7%
5 or more units 117.1 114.8 -2.3 -2.0%
Northeast 54.3 56.7 2.4 4.4%
Midwest 125.6 126.5 0.9 0.7%
South 306.0 332.8 26.8 8.8%
West 167.1 165.6 -1.5 -0.9%
Units Completed
(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates)
Apr. May Change Apr. to May
Month 2002 2002 No. %
Total 654 1,692 38 2.3%
Single Family 1,282 1,359 77 6.0%
Multifamily 372 333 -39 -10.5%
2 to 4 units 41 72 31 75.6%
5 or more units 331 261 -70 -21.1%
Northeast 157 154 -3 -1.9%
Midwest 341 372 31 9.1%
South 796 772 -24 -3.0%
West 360 394 34 9.4%
Change 2001-02
1st Five Months 2001 2002 No. %
Total 563.9 614.8 50.9 9.0%
Single Family 448.7 498.7 50.0 11.1%
Multifamily 115.2 116.2 1.0 0.9%
2 to 4 units 12.2 14.7 2.5 20.5%
5 or more units 103.0 101.5 -1.5 -1.5%
Northeast 51.5 56.5 5.0 9.7%
Midwest 108.4 123.4 15.0 13.8%
South 264.0 286.2 22.2 8.4%
West 140.0 148.7 8.7 6.2%
Building Permits
(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates)
Apr. May Change Apr. to May
Month 2002 2002 No. %
Total 1,631 1,674 43 2.6%
Single Family 1,258 1,267 9 0.7%
Multifamily 373 407 34 9.1%
2 to 4 units 71 71 0 0.0%
5 or more units 302 336 34 11.3%
Northeast 157 178 21 13.4%
Midwest 334 331 -3 -0.9%
South 733 750 17 2.3%
West 407 415 8 2.0%
Change 2001-02
1st Five Months 2001 2002 No. %
Total 683.0 694.3 11.3 1.7%
Single Family 520.5 543.1 22.6 4.3%
Multifamily 162.6 151.3 -11.3 -6.9%
2 to 4 units 26.2 28.9 2.7 10.3%
5 or more units 136.4 122.4 -14.0 -10.3%
Northeast 60.9 65.7 4.8 7.9%
Midwest 129.3 133.2 3.9 3.0%
South 314.4 328.6 14.2 4.5%
West 178.5 166.8 -11.7 -6.6%
Units Under Construction - End of Period
(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates)
Apr. May Change Apr. to May
Month 2002 2002 No. %
Total 1,008 1,009 1 0.1%
Single Family 679 680 1 0.1%
Multifamily 329 329 0 0.0%
2 to 4 units 32 28 -4 -12.5%
5 or more units 297 301 4 1.3%
Northeast 116 117 1 0.9%
Midwest 198 195 -3 -1.5%
South 429 431 2 0.5%
West 265 266 1 0.4%
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce,
Analysis by Regis J Sheenan & Associates
CURRENT RENTAL HOUSING MARKET
Economic - Demographic Indicator
Units of Measures
Rental Vacancy Rates
Apartments percent
All Rental Units percent
New Unfurnished Rental Apartments
Unit Completed thousands
Absorption Rates
3 months percent
6 months percent
9 months percent
12 months percent
Median Rents-New Units $'s
Median Asking Rent - All For Rent Units $'s
New Condominium/Cooperative Apartments
Unit Completed thousands
Absorption Rates
3 months percent
6 months percent
9 months percent
12 months percent
Median Asking Price $'s
Total Households thousands
Rental Households thousands
% Total Households percent
Multifamily New Construction
Number of Units Stated thousands (1)
Apartment Units Stated thousands (1)
Value of Work Put-in-Place billions of current$'s (1)
Rental Property Maintenance,
Repairs, & Improvements 2 millions of $'s
Currents
Year Previous
Ago Period No.
Rental Vacancy Rates
Apartments 9.3 10.0 10.8
All Rental Units 8.2 8.8 9.1
New Unfurnished Rental Apartments
Unit Completed 56.7 42.9 46.3
Absorption Rates
3 months 75 64 67
6 months 89 81 86
9 months 96 93 93
12 months 99 97 97
Median Rents - New Units $840 $872 $900
Median Asking Rent - All For Rent Units $478 $535 $545
New Condominium/Cooperative Apartments
Unit Completed 9.7 10.5 12.8
Absorption Rates
3 months 74 71 71
6 months 92 90 82
9 months 91 92 95
12 months 98 91 94
Median Asking Price $145,300 $188,900 $174,400
Total Households 106866 108721 108158
Rental Households 34663 34418 34793
% Total Households 32.4 32.2 32.1
Multifamily New Construction
Number of Units Stated 334 348 280
Apartment Units Stated 292 295 261
Value of Work Put-in-Place 24.7 28.1 27.9
Rental Property Maintenance,
Repairs, & Improvements 2 12409 12365 13100
Change From
Reporting Year Previous
Period Ago Period
Rental Vacancy Rates
Apartments Q1 02 1.5 0.8
All Rental Units Q1 02 0.9 0.3
New Unfurnished Rental Apartments
Unit Completed Q3 01 -10.4 3.4
Absorption Rates
3 months Q4 01 -8 3
6 months Q4 01 -3 5
9 months Q4 01 -3 0
12 months Q4 01 -2 0
Median Rents - New Units Q4 01 7.1% 3.2%
Median Asking Rent - All For Rent Units Q1 02 14.0% 1.9%
New Condominium/Cooperative Apartments
Unit Completed Q3 01 3.1 2.3
Absorption Rates
3 months Q4 01 -3 0
6 months Q4 01 -10 -8
9 months Q4 01 4 3
12 months Q4 01 -4 3
Median Asking Price Q4 01 20.0% -7.7%
Total Households Mar. 1292 -563
Rental Households Q1 02 130 375
% Total Households Q1 02 -0.3 -0.1
Multifamily New Construction
Number of Units Stated Apr. -54 -68
Apartment Units Stated Apr. -31 -34
Value of Work Put-in-Place Mar. 13.0% -0.7%
Rental Property Maintenance,
Repairs, & Improvements 2 Q4 01 5.6% 5.9%
(1.) Seasonally adjusted annual rates
(2.) Also includes all vacant and seasonal properties
(3.) Not seasonally adjusted
(4.) At annual rates
(5.) Base on output per hour worked
(6.) Difference in yields between 10 year and 1 year Treasuries
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce & Labor, Conference Board,
Federal Reserve Board, Regis J Sheehan & Associates
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