Housing Market Setting New Records.Business Editors
WASHINGTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 8, 2002
Both the existing- and new-home markets will set records for 2001 and near-record activity is expected to continue in 2002, according to according to
1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of: according to historians.
2. In keeping with: according to instructions.
3. the National Association of Realtors The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is made up of residential and commercial realtors who are brokers, salespeople, property managers, appraisers, and counselors, and others working in the real estate industry. (R).
Dr. David Lereah David Lereah was chief economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Lereah served as the association's spokesman and cheerleader on economic forecasts, interest rates, home sales, mortgage rates, as well as other policy issues and trends affecting the United States , NAR's chief economist The Chief Economist is a single position job class having primary responsibility for the development, coordination, and production of economic and financial analysis. It is distinguished from the other economist positions by the broader scope of responsibility encompassing the , said housing outperformed the expectations of many analysts over the last year. "With the exception of the uncertainty cast by the fallout of September 11, our outlook for the housing market grew brighter as the year progressed. When we get the December data later this month, we expect to see total existing-home sales for 2001 to be 5.25 million, up 2.5 percent from 2000 and surpassing the previous record of 5.21 million set in 1999," he said. "Total sales will be fairly even this year, with existing-home sales projected to reach 5.23 million in 2002, down a negligible 0.5 percent," he added.
NAR NAR National Association of REALTORS
NAR Nucleic Acids Research (journal)
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NAR Nationale Arbeidsraad (Dutch: National Labor Council; Brussels, Belgium) also forecasts new-home sales for 2001 to rise 2.5 percent from 2000 to a total of 902,000 units, surpassing the previous record of 885,000 set in 1998, then slip 3.2 percent this year to 874,000 units. Housing starts are expected to rise 1.7 percent to a total of 1.60 million units for 2001, and then decline by 4.0 percent this year to 1.54 million.
Lereah expects U.S. economic growth, as measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP GDP (guanosine diphosphate): see guanine. ), to rise to a positive 1.9 percent growth rate in the second quarter. "Much of our economic activity is being sustained by the strong housing market, which will lead us out of the shallow recession which began last spring," Lereah said. Consumer price inflation for 2002 should be only 1.8 percent.
The association projects the thirty-year fixed mortgage interest rate to rise to 7.3 percent by the third quarter. "Even with this fairly modest increase in mortgage interest rates, they will remain low by historical comparisons. However, the spread between fixed and adjustable rates Adjustable rate
Applies mainly to convertible securities. Refers to interest rate or dividend that is adjusted periodically, usually according to a standard market rate outside the control of the bank or savings institution, such as that prevailing on Treasury bonds or notes. has increased, meaning adjustable-rate mortgages Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
A mortgage that features predetermined adjustments of the loan interest rate at regular intervals based on an established index. The interest rate is adjusted at each interval to a rate equivalent to the index value plus a predetermined spread, or may become more attractive to first-time homebuyers First-Time Homebuyer
An IRA owner who is exempt from the early-distribution penalty (which applies to IRA distributions that occur before the IRA owner reaches age 59.5) for distributing funds from his or her IRA to buy, build, or rebuild a home when having had no interest in a , especially in higher-cost markets," Lereah said.
The association expects the national median existing-home price for 2001 to be $146,600, an increase of 5.5 percent over 2000, then rise by 4.0 percent this year to $152,400. The typical new home price is projected to be $171,200 in 2001, up 1.3 percent from 2000, then rise by 4.7 percent this year to $179,200. "The median new-home price for 2001 is depressed because we saw a pullback Pullback
A falling back of a price from its peak. This type of price movement might be seen as a brief reversal of the prevailing upward trend, signaling a slight pause in upward momentum. from the upper end of the market, but we expect this to improve this year as the economy recovers," Lereah explained.
The association projects the unemployment rate to rise to 6.1 percent before it eases in the fourth quarter. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 2.1 percent this year.
More detailed information about the association's economic outlook, as well as other analysis of real estate industry statistics, can be found in NAR's Real Estate Outlook: Market Trends and Insights. The publication may be purchased by calling 800-874-6500.
The National Association of Realtors(R), "The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association, representing about 800,000 members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
The next existing-home sales release is scheduled for January 25. The next economic and housing forecast will be released February 6.
Information about NAR is available at http://realtor.org. This and other news releases are posted in the Web site's "News Media" section. Statistical data and surveys may be found at http://realtor.org/research.nsf.