Hot on the case.If there's anything remotely close to a thankless investing job in a year when the market has rocketed into orbit, it'd be that of a value portfolio manager. Imagine having to look for undervalued stocks late this summer, when the S&P 500 ballooned to historic highs. It's a year when the pickings have slimmed, says Eric McKissack, portfolio manager of the Ariel Growth fund. "It's not easy right now," McKissack says, "and to be truthful, we've got to be that much more diligent when examining new ideas "New Ideas" is the debut single by Scottish New Wave/Indie Rock act The Dykeenies. It was first released as a Double A-side with "Will It Happen Tonight?" on July 17, 2006. The band also recorded a video for the track. because often enough you'll find that the rally has bypassed either really bad companies or ones that have worn out investors' patience." As a value manager, McKissack is among the sleuths on the lookout for in search of; looking for. See also: Lookout cheap stocks with a twist that most everyone has overlooked--provided they have all the makings of a good three- to five-year holding. Add another wrinkle to his strategy: McKissack focuses on mid-cap stocks, concentrating most of his hunting on companies with a capitalization of $200 million to $5 billion. Studies by experts at Prudential Securities, among others, have shown that mid-cap stocks as a group seem to combine the steady, low volatility price movement of the market's better-known large-cap or blue-chip corporations with the price gains of peppy small company stocks. So far, those studies have, by and large, held up. While the S&P 500 had soared 25% by early August, McKissack's fund was up 18%--a full two percentage points above the S&P midcap 400, which managers who share the same investment style reference as a benchmark. The credo at Ariel has been to keep expenses low--Ariel Growth for instance has a 1.3% expense ratio, a tally of the percentage of overall assets eaten up by the costs of doing business. That's compared with around 1.5% for the average fund. One way to cap costs, McKissack says, is to keep turnover (or selling one company and buying another) down to a minimum. Ariel Growth switches out of 20%-30% of its portfolio annually, compared with 60% for the average- small- or mid-cap fund. Whether or not the market is overvalued Overvalued A stock whose current price is not justified by the earnings outlook or price/earnings (P/E) ratio and thus, expected to drop in price. Overvaluation may result from an emotional buying spurt, which inflates the market price of the stock or from a deterioration in a , McKissack has stuck to basic criteria when looking for Looking for In the context of general equities, this describing a buy interest in which a dealer is asked to offer stock, often involving a capital commitment. Antithesis of in touch with. stocks. First, he's keen that his investments sell at a discount to the overall stock market P/E ratio P/E ratio Current stock price divided by trailing annual earnings per share or expected annual earnings per share. Assume XYZ Co. sells for $25.50 per share and has earned $2.55 per share this year; $25.50 = 10 times $2.55. XYZ stock sells for ten times earnings. . Another way he gets an edge on the competition is to look for shares that aren't widely followed by the big Wall Street brokerages. Equity analysts are gossips; once one finds out something juicy about a company, the news is soon all over the stock market. McKissack is careful in choosing new investments now because of what he sees ahead for the market. "We'd have to say we're cautious in the current environment," he says. "I think we're in for a slowdown in earnings growth, and we could see a correction." There are mitigating factors, however. McKissack says baby boomer baby boomer also ba·by-boom·er n. A member of a baby-boom generation. Noun 1. baby boomer - a member of the baby boom generation in the 1950s; "they expanded the schools for a generation of baby boomers" boomer retirement funds and money that foreign investors are channeling into the stock market could well keep any downturn brief. That said, McKissack feels he's landed upon a few gems. First is Allergan (NYSE NYSE See: New York Stock Exchange : AGN AGN Again (Amateur Radio) AGN Active Galactic Nucleus AGN Acute Glomerulonephritis AGN Accountants Global Network AGN Air Gabon (ICAO code) ), a pharmaceutical company specializing in contact lens contact lens, thin plastic lens worn between the eye and eyelid that may be used instead of eyeglasses. Actors, models, and others wear them for appearance, and athletes use them for safety and convenience. solutions and ophthalmic drugs to treat glaucoma glaucoma (glôkō`mə), ocular disorder characterized by pressure within the eyeball caused by an excessive amount of aqueous humor (the fluid substance filling the eyeball). . McKissack says the company (trading at a P/E ratio of 21.85 as of this writing compared with 19 for the S&P 500) has gone overlooked during a time when it was restocking its product pipeline and getting approval for new products. McKissack sees Allergan earning $1.80 this year and $2.05 next year, versus $2 in 1996, and he thinks it could rise to the high $40s in the next three years. Hasbro (AMEX AMEX See: American Stock Exchange : HAS), a leading toy manufacturer, has also piqued McKissack's interest. "Hasbro's been known as a boys' toymaker
Toymaker (real name Cosmo Krank) is a brand new, original villain in The Batman. He first appeared in Cash for Toys. He is voiced by Patton Oswalt. , and the company stands to profit from movies like Star Wars, Barman and Hercules." McKissack thinks Hasbro can generate earnings of $1.80 a share in 1997 and $2.05 next year, while the stock should rise to $43 in the next three years. Lee Enterprises (NYSE: LEE), which owns broadcast properties in places like Honolulu and operates newspapers in small- and medium-size cities, is one of McKissack's favorites but it hasn't gotten a lot of attention. "It's a good time for a small media player like Lee," McKissack says. "The price of newsprint is down, and a change in government rules on the ownership of broadcasting companies has raised stock prices industry-wide." The Ariel manages sees earnings of $1.40 in 1997 and $1.60 next year, and thinks the stock could attain a price of $43 in the next three years. McKissack also likes Safety-Kleen (NYSE: SK), an environmental waste company that washes machinery used by auto mechanics and the grimier industries around. Afterward, the company recycles the oil it collects, which it in turn markets. He sees earnings rising from $1.03 for fiscal 1997 to $1.20 next year, helping to push Safety-Kleen stock from a current price of $19.50 to $30 in three years. Finally, McKissack says Century Telephone Enterprises (NYSE: CTL See control key. 1. CTL - Checkout Test language. 2. CTL - Compiler Target Language. 3. CTL - Computational Tree Logic ), which provides local telephone service in rural areas, looks good, especially since its cellular business continues to grow at a rapid rate. He thinks earnings will grow from $2.40 in 1997 to $2.70 next year, while the stock may well rise from a current level of $36.75 to $55. --James A. Anderson RELATED ARTICLE: WISE WORDS As the year winds down and you consider investment moves either now or for early 1998, MERRILL LYNCH Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER TYO: 8675 ), through its subsidiaries and affiliates, provides capital markets services, investment banking and advisory services, wealth management, asset management, insurance, banking and related products and services on a global basis. FINANCIAL CONSULTANT NORMAN N. FORRESTER (800-937-0843) says one tried and true strategy that has come up a winner again and again is buying stock in the "dogs of the Dow Dogs of the Dow An investing strategy that consists of buying the 10 DJIA stocks with the highest dividend yield at the beginning of the year. The portfolio should be adjusted at the beginning of each year to include the 10 highest yielding stocks. ." The unseemly name, one that's commonly used around Wall Street, refers to the 10 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average Dow Jones Industrial Average The best known U.S. index of stocks. A price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks, primarily industrials including stocks that trade on the New York Stock Exchange. with the highest yields at year's end. More often than not, the shares of those 10 companies have been beaten up during the previous year, hence pushing the yield or percentage of their dividends to the company's overall stock price up. Forrester says the market has always favored large caps over the long term and that investors eventually come back to even the Dow's ugliest mutts. That way, you can get into a solid blue-chip stock even after a major rally by that segment of the market, and still stand to make healthy gains. Case in point: Contenders at the beginning of this year, Caterpillar and General Electric have gained 54% and 27%, respectively, as of 8/31/97. McKissack's Picks Company Exchange: Symbol Stock PRice[*] P/E Allergan NYS: AGN $30.81 21.85 Hasbro AMEX: HAS $28.56 17.96 Lee Enterprises NYSE: LEE $25.50 19.32 Safety-Kleen NYSE: SK $19.50 19.12 Century Telephone NYSE: CTL $36.75 12.13 [*] As of 8/18/97 |
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