Hollywood has high hopes for a hot season at the box office.

With the Oscars handed out and a lethargic winter season in the books, Hollywood studios now eagerly await a potential blockbuster summer season. Studio executives and theater owners foresee about a 5 percent summer pickup powered by films such as "Jurassic Park" and "Last Action Hero."

Expectations for the film business over the next six weeks are modest, but the box office should heat up Memorial Day weekend, when the critical summer season starts and big-budget films begin playing. The Memorial Day/summer run is the industry's largest revenue period followed by the Christmas season.

"Jurassic Park," the awaited dinosaur-themed Steven Spielberg thriller, has gotten the most press and carries the highest expectations. Its price tag is estimated at over $55 million. MCA Inc. plans to unleash its monster on June 11.

Barry Reardon, president of Warner Bros. Distribution Co., said he anticipates a big summer for the industry. "The first quarter proved to be what I thought it would, down about 1 percent. We don't think the second quarter will be sensational. But I look for the market to break open in May, and we will see a gigantic summer. There are an awful lot of good pictures and this a product-driven business."

Over the next month, Warner Bros. stands to lasso the largest post-Oscar night box-office windfall for "Unforgiven." That film had box-office revenues of almost $83 million before it won four Oscars, including Best Picture.

Reardon estimates the Oscars will push Clint Eastwood's Western to $90 million in domestic box-office revenues. But the rewards will be greatest overseas and in the video market, he predicted.

"We purposely held "Unforgiven" back internationally, anticipating the win. The film hasn't gone to Japan yet, but it will now," Reardon said. He estimates the film could hit $200 million in worldwide revenues and the four Oscars could increase that take by as much as 20 to 30 percent.

Analysts said "Scent of a Woman" should be able to immediately leverage Al Pacino's Best Actor Oscar win at the box office and later at the video store. The film had reached $52.6 million just before Pacino's win.

The first quarter box-office champ was Walt Disney Co.'s "Aladdin." The animated film has rung up almost $100 million this year, after being among the top films last Christmas. Aladdin's magic ride has brought total revenues to just under $200 million.

Richard Cook, president of Buena Vista Pictures Marketing, the Walt Disney Co.'s feature film marketing arm, said Aladdin's success in 1993 came because it captured cross-over audiences. Initially it was a family movie, but teenagers have discovered it.

The film has gone way beyond Disney's expectations and further entrenches Disney's position as the industry's leader, along with Warner Bros.

Disney is marketing 30 films this year, a studio record. Cook said he is optimistic.

"Unlike many summers, where all the good films come out around Memorial Day, this summer will have a real good flow of hits that stretch into August," he said. "There are a lot of event films, but the big money-makers will be the films that nobody is talking about right now. Relatively low-budget films like "Sister Act" that end up big movies."

1993 TOP-GROSSING RELEASES
(Through March 28)
Groundhog Day             $57.6 million
Sommersby                 $43.5 million
Homeward Bound            $37.1 million
Alive                     $35 million
Falling Down              $34.2 million
Statistics compiled by Daily Variety

Buena Vista has two potential sleepers in "Guilty as Sin" starring Don Johnson and "Life with Mikey" with Michael J Fox, according to Cook. Both films are set to launch on June 4. Disney's biggest budget film of the summer is Super Mario Bros. with Bob Hoskins debuting May 28.

Disney had the most successful sleeper film last year with "Sister Act." That Whoopi Goldberg comedy was made for around $20 million, yet threw off over $120 million domestically.

John Krier, president of Exhibitor Relations Co., a box office tabulation service, said Aladdin's success allowed the industry to eke out a small gain in the first quarter. Unlike 1992 when three hits -- "Wayne's World," "Basic Instinct" and "Hand That Rocks The Cradle" -- perked up the winter box office, this year produced no comparable hits.

Columbia Picture's "Groundhog Day" has been the highest-grossing new film so far, at over $57 million, but is the lone 1993 release to go over $50 million.

Daily Variety's figures don't jibe with Krier's or studio executives'. The trade paper reported the industry had a 10 percent increase for the January-to-March period, compared to the same period in 1992, with a box office tally of $902.8 million. The all-time winter winner was 1991, when ticket sales hit $1.05 billion, the newspaper said. Daily Variety reported that March's box office was up 5 percent to $226 million.

Studio executives note the movie business in Los Angeles and Southern California seems to have run stronger than in the rest of the country. A powerful winter snow storm hurt business on the East Coast during March, while Southern California's winter rains drove people into the movies.

Studio executives estimate Los Angeles was at least 5 percent ahead in the January-to-March period compared to the 1992 winter period.

Tim Warner, president of the California's National Association of Theatre Owners said, "During a recessionary environment, people put off more-expensive forms of entertainment, such as travel. We are definitely still in a recession, but they still want to escape, and they go to the movies."

Warner said "Falling Down," the story of a laid-off defense worker who goes on a one-man vigilante spree across Los Angeles, had strong appeal, giving the local box office a boost.

Warner predicted April will be stronger than a year ago, with new films, such as "Sleeping in Seattle," starring Tom Hanks and Meg Ryan, a potential winner. The industry is up against soft April 1992 numbers, he said.

Entertainment analyst Alan Gould, of Kidder, Peabody & Co., predicted "Indecent Proposal" -- debuting this week -- could be a needed breakthrough film for Paramount Pictures. The studio has not had a big film in many months. Gould said, "That film has nice potential; its very much like 'Honeymoon in Vegas.' They (Paramount) can use a few winners and their summer line-up, with 'The Firm' and 'Sliver,' is their best in several seasons."

Gould said the success or failure of "Jurassic Park" may be "very important" to the current management at Universal. There have been industry rumors that studio chief Tom Pollock's days could be numbered if Universal comes up short this summer.

Gould estimated that Disney has spent around $40 million to produce on its major summer release "Super Mario Bros.," a high figure considering the cost-cutting crusade that Disney President Jeffrey Katzenberg has been waging. "That $40 million doesn't compare to the $70 million that Columbia is spending on 'Last Action Hero.' But for Disney to spend $40 million is unusual. I hope the film does well," Gould said.

According to figures released by the Motion Picture Association of America, the average Hollywood release cost $28.9 million to make and another $13.5 million to market in 1992. Despite the industry's attempts to contain costs, the cost figures have gone down only twice since 1980 -- in 1988 and again in 1991.

Gould estimated that costs in 1993 will rise to $30 million for the average film production cost and to $14 million for the average cost of prints and advertising. He estimated the industry will grow 4 percent in 1993, to finish the year with overall revenues of just over $5 billion.