Hizbullah Preparing For War?

In south Lebanon, where most of the 34-day war in July/August 2006 was played out between Hizbullah and Israel, villages are abuzz with talk of another devastating conflict between the two foes. Over the past few weeks, military activity on both sides of the border has contributed to war jitters as Israel and Hizbullah are seemingly poised to strike. The Israeli military on April 6-10 held a nationwide war drill called "Turning Point 2", and Hizbullah appears to have devised new battle plans which include cross-border raids into Israel and has mounted a sweeping recruitment and training drive, marshalling non-Shi'ites and former Israeli-allied militiamen into new reserve units. The Christian Science Monitor on April 14 quoted "Jawad, a Hizbullah fighter", as saying: "The holy fighters are completely focused on the next war, even ignoring families and friends. They are just waiting for the next war".

Most diplomats and analysts in Beirut say neither side has an interest in coming to blows again, despite the build-up. Timur Goksel, a Turkish lecturer in Beirut and former UN official who is a veteran observer of the Hizbullah-Israeli conflict, says: "The elements of conflict are still there, and it is possible that something small can get out of hand with neither side wanting it". But, he adds, the heightened activity is "mainly posturing".

Hizbullah's recruitment and training of new fighters has increased since Mughniyeh's Feb. 12 assassination sparked fears of a fresh war. The Monitor quoted Hizbullah fighters as saying many recruits were being sent to Iran for 45-day advanced training sessions. "Jawad" said he recently returned from Iran, his second trip in a year, where he was taught how to fire anti-tank missiles, adding: "There's a lot of training. The holy fighters are leaving universities, shops, places of work to go and train". New tactics are being taught, including how to "seize and hold" positions, a requirement which Hizbullah - traditionally schooled in hit-and-run methods - never needed before.

One local commander said Hizbullah had fought a defensive war in 2006, adding: "Next time, we will be on the offensive and it will be a totally different kind of war". Jawad said the next war will be "fought more in Israel than in Lebanon". The Monitor said this was "one comment of many from various fighters that suggest Hizbullah is planning commando raids into northern Israel". Hizbullah admits its rocket arsenal has increased since 2006 and it has the ability to strike anywhere inside Israel.

Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah on Feb. 14 said Hizbullah had evolved into an "unparalleled new school" which was part guerrilla force and part conventional army. The Monitor quoted a "European diplomat in Beirut, who has been watching Hizbullah's preparations", as likening attacking the organisation to "punching a sponge" - to absorb the blow then bounce back - and questioned whether Israel still fully appreciated what it was up against.

Hizbullah's build-up is not confined to Shi'ites. Sunnis, Christians, and Druze are being recruited into "Saraya" (battalions). Building ties to Sunnis serves Hizbullah's purpose of expanding support while helping improve Shi'ite-Sunni relations, strained due to political divisions in Lebanon. In the southern coastal town of Sidon, the Sunni Fajr Forces, which fought invading Israeli troops in the early 1980s, has been resurrected as a Hizbullah ally. Shaikh Afif al-Naboulsi, a prominent Hizbullah theologian, in March was quoted as saying next time "the Israelis will find resistance fighters from all sects and denominations".

Hizbullah is particularly active in the eastern pocket of the zone patrolled by UNIFIL. The area is the mainly-Sunni 'Arqoub district and faces the Sheb'a Farms, an Israeli-occupied mountain-side running along Lebanon's border with the Golan Heights. Sheb'a's inhabitants are Sunnis.

Having lost ground to political rivals after the 2006 war, Hizbullah is seeking to regain its influence through funding a new group called Arab Resistance Front, a reserve force for local Sunnis. Even former members of the now disbanded Israeli-allied South Lebanon Army (SLA) militia - now loyal to Gen. Aoun - have joined the new group. The Monitor quoted "Izzat Qadri, the Sunni mayor of Kfar Shuba and an ally of Hizbullah", as saying: "Hizbullah will not turn down anyone who wants to join the resistance".

Despite the frequent recruiting in the border zone, UNIFIL officials say there is no evidence Hizbullah has reactivated its bunkers and rocket-firing positions which its forces abandoned at the end of the 2006 war. Hizbullah forces now are deployed along a new front-line above the Litani River, north of the area patrolled by UNIFIL. In the past 18 months, Hizbullah has purchased land from local Druze and Christians, built an entire Shi'ite-populated village, and turned the mountains and valleys of the area into sealed-off military zones. The Monitor quoted a local resident there as saying: "There are armed and uniformed Hizbullah men crawling all over the hills. We often hear gunfire and explosions from their training".