Hizbullah's 'Divine Victory'.

Addressing a mass rally in a southern Beirut suburb to mark Hizbullah's "divine victory" in its recent 34-war with Israel, the Shi'ite group's Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Sept. 22 delivered a defiant speech, passionately reiterating the group would not disarm. In his first public appearance since the war, Nasrallah he said Hizbullah had recovered all its organisational and military capabilities, adding that its focus would be to push for a government of national unity - a direct challenge to an administration led by Prime Minister Fou'ad Siniora. This is which Syrian President Assad called for in his Aug. 15 speech.

Nasrallah said Hizbullah now was "stronger than it was before July 12" (the day the conflict began as Hizbullah captured two Israeli soldiers), gesturing with his right arm towards crowds of people in a sea of yellow Hizbollah flags. He said: "The resistance will never bow down to conditions. Any words about giving [up] the arms of the resistance in the present state would mean Lebanon will be exposed in front of Israel".

The huge display of support for the group - with the crowds estimated at hundreds of thousand - was viewed as a deliberate attempt by Hizbullah to intimidate the government with a show of strength following weeks of political bickering between the pro-West parliamentary majority which backs Siniora and Iran-sponsored Hizbullah and its Syria-backed allies. Nasrallah said: "The current government is unable to protect Lebanon, or to reconstruct Lebanon or to unify Lebanon".

Earlier, as the crowd waited for Nasrallah, chants of "Siniora get out" rang around the square. Nasrallah warned against rising sectarian tensions. (Some Sunni and Christian groups blame Hizbullah for triggering the war). Nasrallah said anybody talking about [sectarian] divisions was "playing into the hands of Israel", adding: "Please do not let anybody make the disunity that is politics become sectarian".

Hizbullah and allied Christian leader Gen. Michel Aoun have been calling for a unity government since the war ended on Aug. 14. They seek to turn the conflict to their political advantage. The move is designed to give the group a blocking minority in the cabinet which would enable it to gain greater leverage and reduce the influence of the "March 14 Bloc" which backs Siniora.

Hizbollah now has two ministers in the 24-member cabinet. Amal, another Shi'ite group also has two, while the foreign minister is a Shi'ite approved by Hizbullah. Gen. Aoun's party is outside the government.

The Financial Times on Sept. 23 quoted a Lebanese official as saying that, while Hizbullah had not been specific, "the indications are that they want to do it, implying they need change in the government that will give them a blocking minority". The official said the group could still be hedging its bets and that Nasrallah's main concern was to stem the government's insistence that Hizbullah's disarmament stay on the agenda. The government says it will not try to forcibly disarm Hizbullah, but deems disarmament, as well as the Lebanese army asserting its authority in the south, as essential to future security.

Siniora insists there would be no change of government. The danger is the tensions could push the country into a worse political crisis with an administration unable to function effectively. The FT quoted the Lebanese official as saying: "If the Shia ministers together resign and Aoun stands with them, then you have a sizeable proportion of the country withdrawing confidence in the government. Will they push us towards that? That is a big question".

Dialogue between the groups has been at minimum since the conflict ended. Siniora has met senior Hizbullah leaders, but not since Sept. 12. The mainly Sunni bloc which backs Siniora has had no talks with the Shi'ite group since the war.

At one point, Nasrallah said: "There is no army in the world capable of making us drop our weapons as long as there will be people who believe in this resistance". But he also said: "We don't want to keep our weapons forever and they will never be used against anyone inside Lebanon. These are not Shi'ite weapons but the weapons of all the religions and the Lebanese and will protect Lebanon's independence and sovereignty". He said disarming Hizbullah "under this government...means leaving Lebanon exposed before Israel to kill and detain and bomb whoever they want, and clearly we will not accept that. When we build a strong and just state that is capable of protecting the nation and the citizens, we will easily find an honourable solution to the resistance issue and its arms... Tears don't protect anyone" - in reference to Siniora, who openly wept several times when describing the destruction of Lebanon during the war. Nasrallah said: "We haven't even begun rearming, and we have more than 20,000![missiles". He warned UN peacekeepers not to spy on "the resistance". He congratulated the crowd for a "divine, historic and strategic victory" over the US as well as Israel, and said the conflict was "an American war" because Washington provided the weapons, planning and diplomatic support which made possible the Israeli assault on Lebanon's infrastructure.

When the fighting ended, he said, it was not because of the suffering of the Lebanese or any weakness on the part of Hizbullah, but because "the Zionists realised that if it continued, it would be a catastrophe. The Americans agreed to stop the war, not for the women, not for the children of the Lebanese - they stopped the war for Israel". He said the Bush administration had allowed the war to go forward as part of the plan to create "a new Middle East", adding: "This Middle East was illegitimate" and its defeat has become an inspiration "for people who fight for their freedom and dignity" around the world.

On Aug. 27 Nasrallah said in a TV address that the July 12 cross-border raid and capture of the two Israeli soldiers was a miscalculation and that he would not have ordered the raid if he had known how fierce the response from Israel would be. But on Sept. 22 he said that part of the Israeli and US plan had been to set the rest of Lebanon against Hizbullah by inflicting widespread punishment, adding: "They thought that we would be divided".

Former President Amin Gemayel, a harsh critic of Hizbullah, said portions of Nasrallah's speech were "dangerous", adding: "He linked [the proposed] giving up of Hizbullah's weapons to regime change in Lebanon and...to drastic changes on the level of the Lebanese government. This is very surprising and dangerous, and leads us to ask, what kind of government does Sayyed Hassan want for what kind of Lebanon?"

A short statement issued by Siniora's office said Nasrallah's focus "on the dialogue in his speech is a good and constructive thing and opens future horizons". It did not elaborate.

Fares Su'aid, a Christian politician close to Siniora, insisted the government would not bend to Hizbullah pressure, telling al-Arabiya TV: "It will not scare the government of Fou'ad Siniora. It will not fall, not in the street and not because of political speeches".

Israel responded quickly, saying Nasrallah had issued a challenge to the Lebanese government and the international community. Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev said: "The international community can't afford to have this Iranian-funded extremist spit in the face of the organised community of nations". On Nasrallah's claim that Hizbullah had over 20,000 rockets, Regev said that according to the UN-backed ceasefire, Hizbullah "shouldn't have any rockets". (UNSC Resolution 1701 calls for Hizbullah to eventually be stripped of its weapons).

PM Siniora on Sept. 20 said Lebanon had prevented Israel from achieving victory, but declined to credit Hizbullah with a defeat of the enemy. "We have succeeded in preventing Israel from winning the war", he told al-Arabiya in an interview, adding: "This was achieved thanks to the men who offered their lives to defend their country and those who struggled and remained in their towns, and also thanks to the diplomatic efforts deployed by the government".

As to whether he believed Hizbullah was looking to cash in on its boosted stock after the war by seeking to impose the party's policies on the internal front, Siniora said no single party could monopolise the country's decision-making process, adding: "I am sure that our brothers in Hizbullah are keen on Lebanon's national accord and coexistence". As for calls on his cabinet to resign, Siniora said the government had been up to the challenges faced during the war. "This government represents all the Lebanese factions, except General Michel Aoun's bloc. When we were forming the cabinet, we urged General Aoun to join it but he asked for some demands that couldn't be fulfilled". He said the majority of the people supported his government.

Emphasising the need to implement the Ta'if Accord, Siniora said it was in Lebanon's interests to establish good relations with Syria. He said those relations should be based on "mutual respect, the establishment of diplomatic relations and the demarcation of the borders in the Sheb'a Farms". He said the Syrian-Lebanese border should be controlled to end smuggling operations, which would serve both Lebanon and Syria's interests. Siniora also said the government was keen on implementing the Truce Agreement with Israel, but reiterated that Lebanon would be the last Arab state to forge a peace accord with the Jewish state.

Bush Sees Brighter ME Future: Addressing the UN General Assembly, President Bush on Sept. 19 rejected mounting international concern over US policies in the Middle East. He told world leaders a "brighter future is starting to take root", while stepping up pressure on Iran and Syria. Defending his freedom agenda, Bush declared that the Middle East had only experienced the "mirage" of a "false stability" in the past and that democracy and reforms were spreading from Algeria to Iraq, the Gulf Arab countries and Afghanistan.

However, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and French President Chirac presented a much grimmer assessment. Addressing his remarks directly to the people of Iran, Bush said: "You deserve an opportunity to determine your own future", accusing their leaders of denying them liberty, funding terrorists and pursuing nuclear weapons. Speaking earlier to reporters, Bush urged the Iranian side to come to the table, saying: "Time is of the essence. Should they continue to stall, we will then discuss the consequences of their stalling. One of these consequences would be some kind of sanctions programme". He said this after Bush had private talks with Chirac, who had caused a storm in Washington by saying he did not think sanctions against Iran would work.