High school dropout numbers increasing.

As Congress, governors, and state education officials turn their attention now to high school reform, a new report from ETS warns that little is being done to address rising dropout rates, declining earnings for dropouts in the job market, and reduced public investments in effective second-chance efforts.

Issued by ETS's Policy Information Center, the report, One-Third of a Nation: Rising Dropout Rates and Declining Opportunities, tracks dwindling high school completion rates throughout the 1990s, which persist today. The report also found clear evidence that more students are dropping out earlier, between ninth and 10th grades. Coupled with the finding of too few counselors and a steep decline in federal investment, from about $15 billion in the late 1970s to about $3 billion today, the outlook is not good.

"This is a story of losing ground," writes author Paul Barton. "At the same time that the dropout rate is increasing and out-of-school education and training opportunities are dwindling, the economic status of young dropouts has been in a free fall since the late 1970s. Employment and earnings prospects have declined and even for those who work full time, earnings have dropped steadily to averages around the poverty line for a family with children."

Findings from the study include:

* From 1990 to 2000, the high school completion rate declined in all but seven states. In 10 states, it declined by 8 percentage points or more.

* In high school completion rates, the United States has now slipped to 10th place in the world.

* On average, only one certified counselor is available for each 500 students in all schools, and one counselor to 285 students in high schools. And they have many assignments that leave little time to spend with students at risk of dropping out. The ratio is higher for minority students.

* A "bulge" in enrollments in Grade 9 indicates more students nationally are being flunked to repeat Grade 9. This may be reflected in the significant shift toward younger, less educated dropouts than in the past, that face more difficulty in getting jobs.

* In 1971, male dropouts, working full time, earned $35,087 (in 2002 dollars), falling to $23,903 in 2002, a decline of 35 percent. Earnings for female dropouts fell from $19,888 to $17,114.

* There has been a shift in the awarding of GED credentials to younger individuals, and the program has been revised to make it more rigorous.

* In an effort to help address the problem, Barton identifies successful programs that have a proven record of increasing student retention. They include the Talent Development High School, the Communities In Schools program, Maryland's Tomorrow, and The Quantum Opportunities Program. Each is detailed in the report, along with the growing use of alternative schools.

* And, while second-chance opportunities have diminished, Barton notes that such programs as The Job Corps, YouthBuild USA, the Center for Employment Training, and the Youth Corps, have all been effective at addressing the problem.

"One-third of the nation's young people is a very considerable proportion," says Barton. "Almost 45 years ago, James Conant, former president of Harvard, said that the dropout problem was 'social dynamite.' The explosion has occurred, and will continue to occur. This is seen in growing prison populations and increasing welfare costs; in ever lower wages; in a limited labor supply for, we are told, an economy with an increasing appetite for educated workers; and in the likelihood of raising a new generation with dim prospects of doing better--and perhaps of doing worse."

"The nation has proven it can focus on improving education achievement while students are in school," Barton adds. "In this there is a promise that it can also give such focused attention to keeping them in school until graduation."

Information for this article was provided by ETS. ETS is a nonprofit institution with the mission to advance quality and equity in education by providing fair and valid assessments, research and related services for all people worldwide.