Health impacts of Israel's transport system.

CAR DEPENDENCY AND AIR POLLUTION

Road-oriented development is a major trigger for air pollution both directly and indirectly. Cars and buses generate more pollution per mile traveled than rail and pedestrian systems. Secondly, road-oriented development spurs patterns of urban sprawl which generate more automobile use over greater distances--and therefore more pollution. (1)

The State of California Air Resources Board found that a major regional shopping center served primarily by automobiles generates 29 times more Carbon Monoxide emissions than a 1600 megawatt power plant. When a similar shopping center is located in an urban area, served by good regional transit and pedestrian systems, car travel to the center drops from 93 percent of trips to about 38 percent. At the same time, pedestrian travel and public transit trips increase from a combined 5 percent to 61 percent--resulting in enormous savings in pollution emissions. (2)

Israeli Vehicle Emissions

Motor vehicles are a major source of air pollution in Israel, accounting for over 90 percent of Carbon Monoxide pollution nationally, and roughly 40 percent of pollution from [NO.sub.x]. (3) In the Tel Aviv-Jaffa area, it is estimated that vehicle traffic accounts for nearly 40 percent of pollution from PM10s, small particles of pollutants that are one of the most health-damaging forms of pollution. Such vehicle particulate emissions are estimated to cause about 293 premature deaths annually from cancers and lung disease. Electric power generation accounts for about 47 percent of PM10 emissions in the city, and natural causes (sand and dust) account for most of the remainder. (4)

On a national level, serious questions remain as to the true contribution of vehicle emissions to total air pollution across Israel, as well as to emissions trends over the past five years--when new technology has presumably begun to lower per vehicle emissions, but travel has also grown exponentially. The problem lies in a history of inadequate government monitoring of vehicle emissions and industrial air pollutants, as well as inadequate research and reporting of available data from government ministries to the Central Bureau of Statistics--whose data is therefore, unavoidably obsolete. Estimates of vehicle and industrial emission trends, of necessity, must often be extrapolated from tests done abroad, which do not always reflect Israeli conditions. In addition, no mechanism exists for quantifying pollution generated in Israel by (generally aging) Palestinian vehicles, or emissions from idling vehicles. The result is that independent research, based on a recent study sponsored by the Ministry of Environ ment, yields figures for recent emissions that vary from official CBS statistics, as seen below. (5)

Figure 1: Trends in Motor Vehicle Emissions

The planners of the Trans Israel Highway, parts of which are currently under construction (1998), projected a 266 percent increase in private car travel between 1992 and the year 2020; a 207 percent increase in truck traffic, and a 153 percent increase in bus kilometers traveled. Those trends may even be an underestimate since between 1992 and 1997 the rate of traffic growth reported by the Central Bureau of Statistics exceeded that projected by the planners of the Trans Israel Highway. (6) Considering the trends of the 1990s, as well as the Trans Israel Highway projections for vehicle travel over the next two decades, Ginsberg anticipates that emissions of Oxides of Nitrogen and Particulates will begin rising after the year 2000. Particulates will increase by 45 percent by the year 2020, while Oxides of Nitrogen will increase by 187 percent. The rise in these emissions will be due primarily to the greater reliance on diesel fuels for small trucks and commercial vehicles.

These increases in pollution are projected to occur despite anticipated technological improvements in diesel vehicle air pollution controls. (8) In particular, it should be noted that catalytic converters cannot be affixed to diesel vehicles, which are by far the biggest generators of dangerous PM10s. Moreover, even the most advanced auto emissions controls deteriorate with age and lack of motor maintenance--which in Israelis less strictly regulated than in Europe. (9)

Emissions and Air Pollution: International Comparisons

Israel's transport emissions, per capita, are roughly on a par with those in small European states such as Denmark and the Netherlands. But because Israel is one-half the size of these states, transport emissions, per square kilometer, are more concentrated, particularly in populated areas. (10) See Figure 2 on the next page.

Figure 2: Annual Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides and of Carbon Monoxide

Due primarily to transport emissions, the air in Israel's central region is already moderately to severely polluted, according to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) definitions. (11) In Figure 3, we present for comparison the maximum recorded 1991 ozone pollution levels in selected Israeli cities with their American counterparts, and the EPA definition of pollution severity. (12)

Figure 3: Maximum Ozone Levels

It should be noted that ozone is a "secondary" pollutant that develops as the primary pollutants ([NO.sub.x], hydrocarbons) emitted by vehicles and power stations are broken down by sunlight. As a result, large concentrations of ozone can often be found in relatively "green" areas hundreds of kilometers from their original source. Thus, Ceasarea registered high ozone levels when pollution from the Haifa-Acre area drifted out over the ocean and then returned to the Mediterranean sea coast with the winds. More commonly, westerly winds carry Tel Aviv area pollution east to the Judean hills, Jerusalem and the Jordan Valley. (13)

Health Effects of Transport Pollution

The most dangerous pollution generated by vehicles--in health terms--are particulates. Emitted mostly by diesel vehicles, particulates are closely associated with higher rates of premature death, as well as lung disease in adults and children. Small particles, of 10 micrometers or less in diameter--commonly referred to as PM10s--are the major culprits. They trigger respiratory illness, cardiovascular malfunctions and cancers by penetrating deep into the lung tissues, embedded with carcinogenic compounds like benzene. In several dozen recent U.S. and European studies, beginning with a landmark 1993 study of premature mortality in six U.S. cities, published in the New England Journal of Medicine , a direct relationship was found between PM10 pollution and higher rates of premature death: premature death rates were 26 percent higher in cities with the highest PM10 rates. (14) High PM10 rates have also been related to acute respiratory hospital admissions in children, school 15 absences, and increased med ication use in children and adults with asthma. (15) Because of the close association between PM10 pollution and premature mortality, methodologies have now been devised for estimating the number of premature deaths in a given city or region, based on the ambient air levels of PM10s. (16)

As the graph below shows, PM10 levels in Israel's two largest cities are as high, or even higher than levels in some of the most polluted cities in the United States, and thus constitute a major health problem in Israel. (17) In Tel Aviv-Jaffa, vehicles account for about 37 percent of total PM10 pollution (29 percent is from trucks and buses). PM10 pollution from vehicles causes an estimated 293 premature deaths annually among the 380,000 residents of the city. (18) Reducing diesel emissions, particularly in urban areas, should clearly be a priority for public health professionals as well as transportation planners, who have so far ignored the problems of diesel.

While cleaner gasoline and diesel vehicle technology appear to have brought about a temporary decline in PM10 emissions, the rapid increase in truck traffic, and particularly the massive shift underway from small gasoline-powered commercial trucks and vans to diesel models, will reverse that trend by the year 2000. As noted previously, deadly PM10 emissions are expected to increase between 2000 and 2020 by as much as 45 percent even as diesel technologies become cleaner. (19) This projection assumes that only a moderate share of the automobile fleet would shift to diesel vehicles--10 percent by 2010 and 20 percent by 2020. Shifts from gasoline to diesel cars already are apparent in major Israeli sectors such as taxis, where 95 percent of today's fleet is now diesel. (20) It is crucial, therefore, that diesel traffic be curbed and "greener" fuels be advanced for trucks and buses immediately, in order to reduce the health hazards from diesel emissions. (21)

In Israel, as in Europe, the transfer from gasoline to diesel has been facilitated by government policies that price diesel fuel well below that of gasoline--although in Israel, vehicle purchase taxes remain higher. In Great Britain, a country with a poor track record on sustainable transport policy, new diesel car sales are already 20 percent of total car sales--prompting this caution from the British Department of the Environment: "Any increase in the proportion of diesel vehicles in our urban streets is to be viewed with considerable concern, unless problems of particulate matter and nitrogen oxides emissions are effectively addressed." (22)

PUBLIC HEALTH COSTS OF TRANSPORT

Pollution from Road Versus Pollution from Rail Transport

To measure the net pollution emissions from road and rail vehicles carrying different sized loads and different numbers of people, comparisons are usually made in terms of "passenger kilometers" or "ton kilometers," i.e. the cost of carrying one person, or one ton of freight, a distance of one kilometer. As seen in the graph on the next page, rail emits fewer pollutants per kilometer traveled by every passenger than either cars or buses. (26) In addition, pollution emitted by rail is largely indirect -- from electric power generation, where emissions can be controlled at the source or directed high into the atmosphere. In contrast, pollution from road freight vehicles, primarily diesel, is injected directly into community streets -- and into the lungs of passersby.

Figure 4: Emissions by Transport Mode

Diesel Traffic

In freight transport, where road vehicles are generally diesel, the difference between modes becomes even more pronounced.

Diesel trucks and buses also emit far more dangerous particulates than gasoline vehicles per kilometer. (27) In Israel this is a special concern -- where diesel traffic accounts for only about 17 percent of the road kilometers traveled, but for roughly 59 percent of the NOx emissions and about 81 percent of the vehicular particulate emissions. (28)

Figure 5: Diesel vs Petrol: Total Vehicle Emissions

Other Social and Health Costs of Transport

Air pollution is only one among the long list of transport's health and social costs -- and not necessarily the most expensive. Figure 6 on the next page compares the total cost of different travel modes in 17 European countries in air pollution, noise, accidents, and [CO.sub.2] emissions that contribute to global warming. (29)

Figure 6: External Costs per 100 Passengers or Ton Kilometers

Accidents: The Highest Cost of Automobile Dependency 

Traffic accidents are usually regarded as the highest single social cost of transport. (30) Road transport, moreover, is far more dangerous than rail, in terms of accidents per kilometer traveled. Accident statistics from the United States show passenger rail to be nearly 18 times safer than the private car, with 0.4 deaths per billion passenger kilometers as compared to seven deaths for the private automobile. (31) In Europe, fatality rates for rail users average less than one-quarter that of road users, and injury rates are even lower. Per passenger or ton-kilometer, the external cost of transport deaths and injuries in European car travel is 3 to 13 times higher than the cost of rail travel. (32)

Among motor vehicles, motorcycles rank as the most dangerous. In Israel, motorcycle travel accounted for only 1.8 percent of motor vehicle kilometers traveled in 1995, but 10 percent of the vehicles involved in road accidents were motorcycles, as were nine percent of the casualties. (33) In contrast, trucks (both gasoline and diesel, under and over four tons) accounted for 30 percent of total kilometers travel in 1995, but only 19 percent of the vehicles involved in road accidents. (34)

Historically, poor road conditions in Israel were considered one of the chief causes of accidents. Yet between 1990 and 1993, when massive funds were poured into road building, accident casualties rose from 594 to 723 casualties per 100,000 persons annually. (35)

Figure 7: Trends in Road Fatalities in Small Countries

Figure 7 illustrates trends in road fatalities in five small countries. Overall, road injury rates between 1989 and 1993 placed Israel ninth highest in the world in the rate of road injury growth -- outpaced mainly by Third World countries such as Thailand, Swaziland, Mexico, Syria and Costa Rica. (36) See Figure 8.

Figure 8: Injuries from Road Accidents by Selected Countries

Traffic deaths and injuries rise with speed -- and speed usually rises at least temporarily after major road improvements. (37) It has been projected, for instance, that construction of the Trans Israel Highway will translate into net highway death toll increases of at least 300 lives annually due to the increased travel speeds and new travel demands generated by the road -- despite its "safety-oriented" design. (38) The estimated accident toll from a highway oriented transport system is higher, over the long term, than fatalities in a transport system stressing safer public transport modes.

In the urban microenvironment, investment in "soft" transport modes, such as pedestrian networks, cycle paths, and traffic "calming" to slow down speeds is essential for protecting non-motorized groups from traffic accidents -- particularly vulnerable populations, such as children, the elderly and the disabled.

In 1990, 54 percent of the total trips made in Holland were on bicycle or on foot, yet the Dutch boast the lowest pedestrian casualty rates in Europe, due in part to the massive investment made in safe bicycle and pedestrian networks. (39) Conversely, Israel suffers from high per capita rates of pedestrian deaths. In 1995, twelve percent of accident casualties were pedestrians -- even while pedestrian travel appeared to be declining. (40-41) See Figure 9 and Figure 10 on the following pages.

Figures 9 and 10: Pedestrian Deaths by Selected Countries and Pedestrian Deaths as Percentage of Road Deaths

Speeding and Idling: Factors Overlooked in Pollution Generation

Cars that idle and cars that speed (above 90 km/hour) both generate excessive pollution. While emissions and fuel waste generally decline from 10 to 70 kph, emissions rise again at speeds above 90 kph. Optimal highway speeds in terms of fuel efficiency thus range between 70-90 kilometers an hour. Traffic flowing at 120 kph is as inefficient, fuel wise, as traffic at 20 kph. (42) The recent British Royal Commission report on Transport and the Environment recommended the slowing of highway traffic from 70 mph to 50 mph (90 kph) in order to lower pollution emissions, particularly emissions of ozone-forming [NO.sub.x] (43) Israel, meanwhile, has increased traffic speeds on some interurban roads from 90 to 100 kph, and the design speed for the Trans Israel Highway is 120-130 kph, increasing the likelihood that legal traffic limits on the road will be in the 100 to 110 kph range. (44)

The practice of idling is rampant in Israel. There is no driver's education that aims to curb it. In contrast, within European capitals such as Amsterdam, operating a vehicle engine for more than a minute while standing still is illegal. Warnings against idling are even printed in tourist maps of the city. (45) As of August 1998, Israel's Ministry of Transport was preparing to take a first step towards raising public awareness. The ministry had tentatively approved the issuance of a new directive to forbid the idling of buses, which often run their engines for hours while parked at tourism, educational and even nature sites. (46)

Towards a Full Accounting of Social Costs

One of the most pressing challenges in Israel today is the need for a full cost accounting of the various social costs of different modes of transport (i.e. car, bus, rail). Those costs include the health costs of air pollution and traffic accidents that are discussed in this chapter. They also include the quantifiable impacts of traffic noise and air pollution on real estate values, described in Chapter III, and the harder-to-quantify effects of traffic on community relationships and specific population groups -- discussed in Chapter IV.

Only when the full social, health and environmental costs of different transport development options is fully understood and quantified in money terms can policymakers make rational decisions about the value of shifting traffic to safer and cleaner modes like electric trains, gas-powered buses, walking and cycling.

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Fig 4

EMISSIONS BY TRANSPORT MODE: NITROGEN OXIDE (gm/passenger km)


CAR               2.1
BUS               0.79
INTER-URBAN RAIL  0.46
MOTORCYCLE        0.16
TRAM/METRO        0.15

Source: Whitelegg J. (26)

Note: Table made from bar graph
Transport Emissions in Israel (thousands of tons/year).

                            Nitrogen Oxides
Year  Carbon Monoxide (CO)   ([NO.sub.x])    PM10s  Total Particulates

1996         487.5               91.3        4.61          4.79
2000         400.1               92.1        3.92          4.07
2010         312.0              125.9        4.25          4.41
2020         325.0              172.7        5.69          5.91

Source: Dr. Gary Ginsberg (7)
Particulate Pollution in Selected cities in Israel and the US (PM10s in
micrograms per cubic meter of air, annual average)


TEL AVIV  -- CENTER  56  (1996)
JERUSALEM -- CENTER  47  (1991)
LOS ANGELES          48  (1992)
NEWARK, NEW JERSEY   37  (1991)

Sources: Dr. Gary Ginsberg, Mordechai Peleg, The Ministry of
Environment, U.S. EPA and the South Coast Air Quality Management
District, California (23)
Index of Air Pollutants and Health and Environmental Effects

Pollutant (24)     Source & transport         Health and environmental
                                              effects

Carbon monoxide    Transport is               Deprives body of oxygen.
(CO)               responsible for            Causes unconsciousness
                   over 90 % of CO            and death in
                   pollution in Israel.       high amounts. Long term
                   Emitted due to the         exposure may aggrevate
                   incomplete combusion       cardiovascular disease.
                   of fossil fuels.

Nitrogen oxides    Transport is               Irritates lung tissue,
([NO.sub.x])       responsible for 32         increasing susceptibility
                   -43% of [NO.sub.x]         to viral infection,
                   emissions in Israel.       bronchitis and pneumonia.

Particulates and   37 % of particulate        The most costly pollution,
Hydrocarbons (HC)  pollution in Tel           in health terms.
                   Aviv-Jaffa is from         Heavy metals and
                   transport sources,         polyaromatic hydrocarbons
                   mostly diesel.             carried deep into
                                              lungs on fine particulates
                                              are responsible for
                                              increased respiratory and
                                              cardiovascular illness,
                                              as well as cancers

Ozone ([O.sub.3])  [NO.sub.x] and HC          Irritates eyes, nose,
                   react in the presence      throat and lungs causing
                   of sunlight, forming       coughing, headaches and
                   ozone. Tel Aviv area       reducing to respiratory
                   traffic generates high     infections. Aggravates
                   levels in the Judean       asthma and bronchitis,
                   hills, Jerusalem           worsens heart disease.
                   and Jordan. (25)

Carbon dioxide                                The most important
 ([CO.sub.2])                                 "greenhouse" gas
                                              contributing to global
                                              warming.

Lead (Pb)          Lead is an anti-knocking   Impairs mental development
                   element used as a petrol   in children, affects
                   additive in older Israeli  nervous, circulatory,
                   model cars.                and reproductive systems.

Sulphur Dioxide    Source: Sulphur in fuels   Exacerbates lung problems
([SO.sub.2])                                  and asthma, irritates
                                              eyes and mucous membranes.

Benzene            80% of Benzene pollution   Associated with leukemia
                   in OECD countries is from  and other cancers.
                   auto emissions.

Sources: The Public Health Alliance, Great Britain; Menachem Luria,
Hebrew University; Israel Statistical Abstract; Dr. Gary Ginsberg.
Pollution Emissions for Freight Transport, by Mode (grams/ton-km)

POLLUTANT   RAIL  ROAD  AIRPLANE

[CO.sub.2]  41    207   1,206
CO          .05   2.4   1.4
[NO.sub.x]  0.2   3.6   5.5

Source: The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, Transport and
the Environment.

"Freight Transport Modes, Energy Uses and Emissions," p. 167.
Cost of Transport Deaths and Injuries in ECUs

COUNTRY         CAR (per 1000 pkm)  TRUCK (1000 tkm)  TRAIN (1000 ptkm)

Denmark          8.5                2.2               0.9
Germany         13.7                3.5               1.4
United Kingdom   8.9                2.3               3.8

Source: The European Federation for Transport and the Environment.
CARBON MONOXIDE (gm/passenger km)


CAR               11
MOTORCYCLE        10
BUS                0.28
INTER-URBAN RAIL   0.13
TRAM/METRO         0.01

Note: Table made from bar graph
CARBON DIOXIDE (gm/passenger km)


CAR               180
MOTORCYCLE        100
INTER-URBAN RAIL   78
TRAM/METRO         61
BUS                48

Note: Table made from bar graph
Fig 5

DIESEL vs PETROL: TOTAL VEHICLE EMISSIONS (1996)

                      DIESEL VEHICLES  PETROL VEHICLES

KILOMETERS TRAVELLED  17.1%            82.9%
NOx EMISSIONS         59%              41%
PM10 EMISSIONS        81.2%            18.8%

Source: Ginsberg G. & CBS (28)

Note: Table made from bar graph
Fig 6

EXTERNAL COSTS: EUROPE (1991) PER 100 PASSENGER or TON KMS


     MOTORCYCLE  $15.86
    LIGHT TRUCK  $7.47
    PRIVATE CAR  $6.24
    HEAVY TRUCK  $6.03
            BUS  $2.55
PASSENGER TRAIN  $1.24
    GOODS TRAIN  $0.81

Source: Israel Rail Authority (29)

Note: Table made from bar graph

(1.) Daniel Carlson and Don Billen, Transportation Corridor Management: Are We Linking Transportation and Land Use Yet? University of Washington, Institute for Public Policy and Management, October, 1996.

(2.) California Air Resources Board, "The Linkage Between Land Use and Air Quality," 1994, pp. 2,8. In the urban shopping centers surveyed, travel by private vehicle averaged: 38%; Transit: 32%; walking 29%; In the suburban centers, the modal split was: private vehicle: 93%; public transit: 4%; walking: 1%.

(3.) Central Bureau of Statistics, Statistical Abstract of Israel 1997. "Emission of Air Pollutants, By Type of Consumer," Table 1.8. The proportions cited here are obtained by dividing the total amount of CO and NOX emissions from all sources, by those generated from vehicles. However, since the CBS methodology for calculating vehicle emissions is obsolete, and is itself undergoing revision for the year 1998, the numbers cited here are estimates, reflecting not only the CBS estimates of emissions, but other alternative calculations which take into account more up-to-date data on vehicle emissions in the Israeli fleet (see note # 5).

(4.) This mortality estimate is made by Dr. Gary Ginsberg, A. Serri, E. Fletcher, Dani Koutik, et al. in the paper, "Mortality from Vehicular Emissions in Tel Aviv-Jaffa," World Transport Policy and Practice, (Great Britain) Volume 4, No. 2, 1998, pp. 27-31. It is derived from local measurements of ambient air pollution levels and pollution emissions from industry, transport and natural sources, as recorded by the Tel Aviv Municipality's Department of Environment. Estimates for PM10 emissions per vehicle are based on data on comparative vehicles in the Dutch transport fleet in 1994 -- yielding a much more conservative estimate of overall emissions than that provided by the standard methodology of the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, for its emissions estimates (see below). The methodology for calculating the deaths from particulate pollution is based, in part, on the World Health Organization's Office of Global and Integrated Environmental Health, "A Methodology for Estimating Air Pollution Health Effects ," WHO, Geneva, 1996.

According to Ginsberg, (personal communication) the contribution of various sources to PM10 emissions in Tel Aviv-Jaffa are as follows:

Plan: Transport in a Sustainable Society, 1989-1990, p. 11; Ministry of Transport, The Netherlands Meerjarenprogramma Infrastructuur en Transport. 1996-2000, pp 9, 19.; Israeli data prior to 1996 is from the Central Bureau of Statistics, Statstical Abstract of Israel 1996, Table 1.8. For 1996 and 2000, emissions are calculated by Dr. Gary Ginsberg, as explained in notes # 4-7, and the graph "Trends of Motor Vehicle Emissions."

Electric generation  47.1%
Other industry        1.3%
Gasoline Vehicles     7.7%
Diesel Vehicles      29.5%
Sand                 14.4%

(5.) Dr. Gary Ginsberg, health economist, Ministry of Health, Dr. Ruth Chichesky, Central Bureau of Statistics, Dr. A. Seeri, Ministry of Environment, personal communications, 1998. Note: Emissions trends are usually calculated from the Central Bureau of Statistics, Statistical Abstract of Israel 1997. Table 1.8 "Emissions of Air Pollutants by Type of Consumer, in Tons." However, as noted previously, vehicle emissions data, as reported by the Central Bureau of Statistics in the 1997 Statistical Abstract, is based on vehicular emissions data from the 1980s, data which is out of date today, given the mass introduction of new vehicle emissions technologies. Revisions are now underway in the methodology for calculating vehicle emissions for the forthcoming 1998 Statistical Abstract. However, attempts to calculate up-to-date estimates, and to estimate the contribution of cars to total emissions, are still impeded by the absence of up-to-date Israeli test data both from vehicle emissions, as well as the scarcity of up-to-date emissions data from other sources, i.e. heating and industrial emissions.

To obtain more accurate measurements for vehicle pollution only, the Israel Ministry of Environment together with the Technion, initiated a program of research measurements of NOX and CO emissions from Israeli cars in 1997-98, but the program has yet to be extended to trucks and buses, a major source of pollutants. So far, no measurements have yet been made for vehicle particulates. Data on vehicle emissions is thus presented here as a graph of "high" and "low" ranges. The ranges are reflected in the table below. The complete 1996 CBS data on vehicle emissions is presented along with an alternative estimate of emissions by Gary Ginsberg. Ginsberg's alternative estimate is based on methodology developed in the paper by Ginsberg, et al., "Mortality from Vehicular Emissions in Tel Aviv-Jaffa," (see note #4).

In the case of CO emissions, Ginsberg's revised estimates take into account the recent-testing for COs and NOX emissions in about 500 Israeli cars by the Technion. However NOX data on trucks and buses is not available locally, and is derived from the latest data from the British Ministry of Transport's Emissions Database. (http://www.london-research.gov.uk/emission.htm.) In the case of PM10s, no data is available locally, and Ginsberg's estimate is wholly derived from the British Ministry's of Transport's Emissions Database, as applied to the age and makeup of the Israeli vehicle fleet. The calculations do not include emissions from Palestinian vehicles traveling through Israel, or emissions from idling vehicles, which in cities may be of some significance.

It should also be noted that in Ginsberg's estimates, the kilometrage reported by the CBS for 1996 (31.656 billion kilometers) was also adjusted downwards by a factor of 8.1 percent as a "correction" to CBS kilometrage estimates. A similar downwards correction was originally made by the Trans Israel Highway Co. in the previously cited 1994 "Traffic Analysis and Economic Evaluation," on the basis of evidence indicating that actual Israeli vehicle gasoline consumption reflected a somewhat lower kilometrage than that reported by the CBS.

Ginsberg's final pollution estimates for 1996 exceed the official CBS estimate by 4 percent, in the case of CO, but are 10.7 percent lower for [NO.sub.x]. In the case of particulates, his estimates are significantly lower than official estimates. The alternative estimate provided by Ginsberg here should still be compared very cautiously with data on other kinds of emissions -- i.e. statistics from heating or industry as recorded by the CBS-- since CBS date for those kind of emissions may also be obsolete, in some cases.

EMISSION (TONS)                 1980      1996      1996
                               (CBS)   (GINSBERG)   (CBS)

CO                            280,929   487,468    466,966
[SO.sub.x]                      6,976      --       12,220
[NO.sub.x]                     41,983    91,253    101,585
Hydrocarbons                   34,383      --       31,660
Suspended Particulate Matter    4,797     4,789     15,367
PM10 *                           --       4,612       --

* According to Ginsberg, et al. PM10s constitute, on average, 96% of
SPMs from gasoline vehicles, and 99% of SPMs from diesel vehicles.

Trans Israel Highway Co. Traffic Analysis and Economic Evaluation. November, 1994, (in Hebrew) Section 4-17. "Summary of Projections for Annual Kilometrage Between the Years 2000 and 2020 by Vehicle Type." & Central Bureau of Statistics, 1997 Statistical Abstract of Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, 1997 Kilometrane Survey Central Bureau of Statistics, Motor Vehicles. 31 .XII, 1997, Selected Data. No. 12, 1998.

Note: Estimated travel for the base year of 1992, as calculated by the Trans Israel Highway Co. report was 21.40 billion kilometers, as compared to the 22.795 billion kilometers reported by the Central Bureau of Statistics -- a discrepancy of about six percent. The lower estimate of the Trans Israel Highway report was based on reports of actual gasoline consumption for travel in the same year. However since 1992, the relative rate of increase in traffic kilometrage has been faster than that which was projected in the Trans Israel Highway report. By 1996, for instance, kilometrage reported by the CBS was roughly 17.6 percent higher than that projected by the Trans Israel Highway report. Between 1992 and 1996, therefore, kilometrage figures cited in this report are the mid-point between the CBS figures and the Trans Israel Highway figures and projections. For the years 2000, 2010 and 2020, we assumed that overall trends in kilometrage will follow the pattern of the Trans Israel Highway Co. projections (in a bus iness as usual scenario). However, those projections were adjusted upwards by a factor of 8.82% -- the 1996 midpoint average. This reflects the expectation that actual traffic growth will continue to outstrip the projections somewhat, as it has in the past decade. The kilometrage projections were also broken down more precisely by vehicle type, average amount of travel, type of engine (diesel or gasoline); and changes in fleet makeup (the transition from small gasoline trucks to diesel). In order to make more precise pollution projections in Chapter 1, trucks under four tons and small buses were removed from the category of "cars" and "other" and considered as a separate category.

For the purposes of travel projections, in Chapter 2, the Route Six definitions of "Private Cars" was preserved to include 2/3 of the commercial vehicles under four tons. Below is a summary of the kilometrage figures underlying all pollution and kilometrage projections in the report.

Vehicle Kilometrage Summary (billions of kilometers annually)

YEAR  ROUTE SIX  CBS     PRESENT STUDY

1992  21.40      22.795  22.10
1993  --         24,710  23.64
1995  --         30,633  28.54
1996  26.91      31.656  29.28
2000  32.43      --      35.29
2010  45.57      --      49.59
2020  55.13      --      59.99

(7.) These projections, prepared by Dr. Gary Ginsberg, are based on the national kilometrage figures noted in note no. 6, as well as on methodology for pollution emissions calculations described in the paper "Mortality from Vehicular Emissions in Tel Aviv" cited in notes #4-5. Similar methods were used by Dr. Yosef Basis to generate long-term pollution projections in, "Preventing Pollution From Automobiles in Large Cities," The Biosphera. Volume 5-6, February-March, 1995. (in Hebrew)

Ginsberg's projections estimate emissions from the present -day vehicle fleet, based on vehicle kilometrage for different vehicle types. Emissions per kilometer were measured between 1995 and 1997 on Israeli vehicles at the Haifa Technion, as part of research sponsored by the Ministry of Environment In the case of trucks and buses, as well as in the case of PM10 emissions, Israeli data was unavailable, and emissions factors were obtained from the British Ministry of Transport's Emissions Database. The British data provide emissions projections for all major vehicle categories and motor types from the present until the year 2020, projections which incorporate anticipated changes in technology. (see the internet-site: http://www.london-research.gov.uk/emission.htm.)

Other factors considered in the calculation were average vehicle kilometrage in Israel by type of vehicle, differences in emissions factors in Israeli urban/rural driving conditions, the vehicle type and age spread of the Israeli car/bus/truck fleet, emissions according to the different categories of trucks and buses in the Israeli fleet, the rate of Israeli car, truck and bus vehicle turnover; a shift of small trucks and vans (under four tons) from gasoline-powered engines to diesel engines. It is expected that 60 % of small truck and van travel will be via diesel Vehicles in the yea 2010 and 84 % by the year 2020. Also projected was a shift of 1.5 % of private car travel to diesel cars by the year 2000; 10 % by the year 2010 and 20% by the year 2020; as well as the fitting of all gasoline-powered cars with catalytic converters.

(8.) Note: The British Ministry of Transport's emissions factors, used in the emissions projections made here, are projected year by year, and by vehicle type, until the year 2020. See also: Ewing and Reid, Transportation Quarterly, Vol. 49, No. 1, Winter, 1995, p. 94. See also California Air Resources Board, "The Linkage Between Land Use and Air Quality, 1994 p. 2.

(9.) Jose C. Carbajo, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Editorial, London School of Economics and Political Science, and the University of Bath. January, 1995. p. 5.

(10.) Sources of demographic data: EEC, Annual Bulletin of Transport Statistics, United Nations, 1995, p. 11. & Central Bureau of Statistics, Israel Statistical Abstract. 1996.

Demographics: Israel, Denmark, Netherlands

Country      1993 Population   Area (km2)  Population Density
             (thousands)                   (per km2)

Israel       5,260             21,946 *    239.6 *
             (Yr. 2000: 6040)              (Yr. 2000: 275.2)

Denmark      5,180             43,094      120.2

Netherlands  15,240            40,844      373.1

* includes pre-1967 Israel, the Golan Heights and east Jerusalem

European pollution data is from: "Strategies and Policies for Air Pollution Abatement," Economic Commission for Europe, Convention on long-Range Tansboudary Air Pollution, New York and Geneva, 1995, pgs. 81, 83, 108, 110.; Government of The Netherlands. Second Transport Structure

EMISSIONS TABLE (All Motor Vehicles) (THOUSANDS OF TONS A YEAR)

Year  Israel             Denmark            Netherlands

      CO     [NO.sub.x]  CO     [NO.sub.x]  CO     Nox
1985  367.8  54.0        496.1   91.4       923.0  262.0
1990  485.7  71.2        526.2   98.8       675.0  272
1992  603.7  88.1        542.6  100.3       584.0  262
1993  668.7  97.2        444.1   88.4       --     255
1994  667.2  91.3        --     --          --     248
1996  487.5  91.3        --     --          --     --
200   400.1  92.1        378.2   61.5       --     149

(11.) Darnay, Arsen J. (editor). Statistical Record of the Environment, Gale Research Inc., Detroit, Michigan, 1992. Table: "Ozone: U.S. Urban Areas Failing to Meet Standards," p. 37.

(12.) Sources: (U.S. Data) U.S. EPA, National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report. "Metropolitan Statistical Area Air Quality Factbook: Peak Statistics for Selected Pollutants by MSA." 1991 & "EPA National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1994," Data Appendix, October 1995 from the EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.

(Israeli Data) Statistical Abstract of Israel, Central Bureau of Statistics, Jerusalem, 1991. Also, M. Peleg, M. Luria et al. "Ozone Levels in Central Israel," Israel Journal of Chemistry. Vol. 34, 1994, pp. 375-386. Also, D. Alper-Siman Tov, M. Peleg et al. "Recirculation of Polluted Air Masses over the East Mediterranean Coast," Atmospheric Environment, November, 1996.

Notes: Ozone readings for Ceasarea were measured in five minute averages daily between May and October, 1993. The maximum daily five minute average was in excess of 230 ppb, yielding an equivalent value of about 200 ppb for a half-hour period, according to Luria.

The translation from ppb to micrograms/[cm.sup.3] is ppb * 1.91 = micrograms/[m.sup.3] as explained in The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, Eighteenth Report. Transport and the Environment. His Majesty's Publishing House, London, p. 34.

The EPA reports the second-highest daily maximum reading of the year, rather than the highest day's reading. The aim in this practice is to discount severe weather aberrations. EPA readings are typically averaged in one-hour sequences, rather than in half-hour sequences as in Israel. Despite such differences, the numbers are still comparable, according to Luria.

Maximum Recorded Ozone Levels (1990/1991)

City                Ozone: Parts Per     U.S. EPA   Measure
                    Billion (Israeli     Pollution
                    Standard - 120 ppb)  Rating

Jerusalem           180                  Serious    Highest 1/2 hr. avg.

Gush Etzion         133                  Marginal-  Highest 1/2 hr. avg.
                                         Moderate

Ceasarea (1993)     200                  Severe     Highest 1/2 hr. avg.

New York City       180                  Serious    2nd highest avg.

Neward, N.J.        140                  Moderate   2nd highest avg.

Pittsburgh, PA      120                  Marginal   2nd highest avg.

England 4/8/90      169                  Serious    Highest nationwide
                                                    average since 1984

Los Angeles (1994)  240                  Extreme    2nd highest avg.

(13.) M. Luria, M. Peleg et al, "The Formation of [O.sub.3] Over Israel: A Growing Concern and a Potential International Issue," Y. Steinberger (editor) in Preservation of Our World in the Wake of Change, Volume VI A/B ISEQS Publishers, Jerusalem, 1996. pg. 13-16.

(14.) DW Dockery et al, "An Association Between Air Pollution and Mortality in Six U.S. Cities," The New England Journal of Medicine, Dec. 9, 1993. p. 1756;

See also: David V. Bates, "Air Pollution, Time for More Clean Air Legislation?" British Medical Journal, London, Volume 312, March 16, 1996. p. 649.

B. Ostro et al. "Air Pollution and Mortality: Results from a Study of Santiago, Chile," Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, California Environmental Protection Agency, Berkeley, U.S.A.

GD Thurston, New York University School of Medicine "A Critical Review of PM10 Mortality Time-Series Studies," Journal of Exposure Analysis and Environmental Epidemiology, Jan-Mar, 1996.

(15.) CA Pope, "Particulate Pollution and Health, A Review of the Utah Valley Experience," Journal of Exposure Analysis and Environmental Epidemiology, Jan-Mar, 1996.

See also: J. Schwartz et al. "Acute effects of Summer Air Pollution on Respiratory Symptom reporting in Children," American Journal of Respiratory Critical Care Medicine, November, 1994.

Committee of the Environmental and Occupational Health Assembly of the American Thoracic Society. "Health Effects of Outdoor Air Pollution," American Journal of Respiratory Critical Care Medicine, January 1996. pp. 3-50.

I. Romieu et al. "Effects of Air Pollution on the Respiratory Health of Asthmatic Children living in Mexico City," American Journal of Respiratory Critical Care Medicine. August, 1996.

(16.) See "A Methodology for Estimating Air Pollution Health Effects, Office of Global and Integrated Environmental Health, World Health Organization, Geneva, 1996. & Kenneth A. Small and Camilla Kazimi, "On the Cost of Air Pollution from Motor Vehicles" The Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, January 1995, Table 4, pg. 13. See also the work of Joel Schwartz, Department of Environmental Health, Harvard University.

(17.) See Particles in Our Air: Concentrations and Health Effects, eds. Richard Wilson and John D. Spengler, Harvard University Press, 1996.

(18.) Ibid. Dr. G. Ginsberg, A. Seeri, E. Fletcher, Dani Koutik Phd, et al. "Mortality from Vehicular Emissions in Tel Aviv."

(19.) Dr. G. Ginsberg, personal communication. As noted previously with regards to CO & NO, the 1996 estimate of PM10 emissions by Ginsberg varies greatly from the baseline provided by the Central Bureau of Statistics, which based its calculations of emissions per/km of travel on vehicle emissions data from the 1980s. The estimates and projections are as follows:

PM10 Emissions from Vehicles -- In Tons

                   1996   2000   2010   2020

CBS *             14,800  --     --     --
Revised Estimate   4,612  3,920  4,250  5,690

* The CBS baseline figure cited in the 1997 Statistical Abstract of
Israel is 15,367 tons. But this is adjusted here to reflect PM10s, only,
which are generally assumed to constitute 96-97 percent of the Total
Suspended Particulate matter emitted by vehicles.

(20.) Aryeh Avraham, Transport Division, Central Bureau of Statistics, reports in a personal communication, May, 1998, that the total number of taxis registered in 1997 was 11,563, of which only 537 were gasoline powered, and the remaining 11,026 diesel.

(21.) Dr. G. Ginsberg, A. Seen, E. Fletcher, Moshe Tenne PHd, et al. "Mortality Reductions As a Result of Transferring To Alternative Fuel Powered Vehicles in Tel Aviv-Jaffa," World Transport Policy and Practice, Vol. 4, No. 4, 1998, p. 4. Ginsberg estimates here that the transfer of trucks and buses to cleaner, compressed gas fuels can reduce PM10 tailpipe emissions, and hence deaths by about 80 percent, while fitting diesel vehicles with an oxidizing catalyst is a more immediate, and inexpensive measure that can reduce PM10 tailpipe emissions by about 25 percent.

(22.) Ibid. The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, "Transport and the Environment," pp 129-130.

(23.) For figures on PM10 pollution levels in Jerusalem see: Yosef Ben Ami, "Characteristics of Suspended Particles in Jerusalem," Hebrew University M.A. thesis, written under the direction of Professor Menachem Luria and Doctor Mordechai Peleg. May, 1992. Personal Communication. Tel Aviv PM10 levels are averages of tests from three monitoring stations maintained by the Israel Electric Corporation and the Tel Aviv Municipality, as reported to the Environment Ministry, and contained in G. Ginsberg et al "Mortality from Vehicular Emissions in Tel Aviv." Los Angeles PM10 level (Annual Arithmetic Mean) is contained in the 1992 Air Quality Report, supplied by the South Coast Air Quality Management District., Diamond Bar, CA. The Newark, New Jersey figure (Weighted Arithmetic Mean) is from the EPA's National Air Quality Emissions Trends Report, 1991, U.S. EPA office of Air Quality Standards and Planning.

(24.) Table is adapted from Health on the Move: Policies for Health Promoting Transport. The Public Health Alliance, Great Britain, 1991, p. 7.

(25.) M. Luria, M. Peleg et al, "The Formation of [O.sub.3] Over Israel: A Growing Concern and a Potential International Issue," Y. Steinberger, ed. in Preservation of Our World in the Wake of Change, Volume VI A/B ISEQS Publishers, Jerusalem, 1996. pg. 13-16.

(26.) John Whitelegg, Transport for a Sustainable Future: The Case for Europe, John Wiley Press, 1993. Fig. 3.11, pg. 57-58.

(27.) Dr. Gary Ginsberg, personal communication and http:www.London-research.gov.uk/emission/empm10.htm. Note: for automobiles: The weighted Israeli fleet average of gasoline automobile particle emissions are estimated to be .0325 grams/kilometer, based on British emissions factors, adjusted to the age of the Israeli fleet. In comparison, for Trucks and Buses: Estimated average particle emissions in 1996 were as follows:

Trucks (over four tons)  urban cycle   .996 grams/kilometer
                         rural cycle   .583 grams/kilometer
Buses                    urban cycle  1.347 grams/kilometer
                         rural cycle  1.178 grams/kilometer

(28.) Central Bureau of Statistics, Statistical Abstract of Israel 1993, Table 1:19; Ibid. The Trans Israel Highway Company, Traffic Analysis and Economic Evaluation pp. 11, 30, 94 & Table 4-17. Total Israeli emissions of diesel and (petrol)gasoline vehicles were calculated by Dr. Gary Ginsberg according to the formula described in notes # 4-7. A breakdown of the fleet by diesel and petrol vehicles, and of average kilometrage for both diesel and petrol vehicle types, including trucks under and over four tons, was obtained from the Central Bureau of statistics, Statistical Abstract of Israel 1997, Table 18:17 & from Arye Avraham, Central Bureau of Statistics, personal communications, July, 1998.

The estimated breakdown in emissions for 1996 is as follows:

1996             Vehicle       Nox Emissions  PM10 Emissions
                 Kilometers    (Thousand      (Thousand
                 (billions)    Tons)          Tons)

Diesel Vehicles   5.0 (17.1%)  53.83 (59.0%)  3.75 (81.2%)
Petrol Vehicles  24.3 (85.9%)  37.41 (41.0%)  0.86 (18.8%)

Total            29.3 (100%)   91.25 (100%)   4.61 (100%)

(29.) "External Effects of Transport" Interim Report, Infras, Zurich, IWW Karlsruhe, May 1994. Cited in Israeli Institute for Transport and Planning Research. Development Plan 2000: Economic Evaluation of Externalities. Working Paper No. 10, pg. 4.(in Hebrew).

(30.) D.M.G. Newberry, "Road User Charges in Britain," The Economic Journal. Volume 98 (1988): 161-176; Ibid. Getting the Prices Right. A European Scheme for Making Transport Pay its True Costs, The European Federation for Transport and Environment, May 1993. p. 108-9. John Whitelegg, Transport for a Sustainable Future: The Case for Europe pp. 109-112.

(31.) Worldwatch Institute, State of the World, W.W. Norton, 1993, pg. 124.

(32.) Per Kageson, Getting The Prices Right: A European Scheme for Making Transport Pay its True Costs. The Europe an Federation for Transport and Environment, May, 1993, pp. 15-17. See also full report. pp. 108-109.

(33.) Ministry of Transport, Representative Statistics of the Transport Branch, May, 1996. pp. 12,24 & Central Bureau of Statistics, Statistical Abstract of Israel 1996, Jerusalem, Table 18.22.

(34.) Ministry of Transport, Representative Statistics of the Transport Branch, May, 1996. p. 24 and Statistical Abstract of Israel 1996, Jerusalem, Table 18.17.

(35.) Central Bureau of Statistics, Statistical Abstract of Israel 1995, P. 551.

(36.) International Road Federation. World Road Statistics 1989-1993, Geneva, p. 109.

(37.) Paul Barach, "100 Kilometers Per Hour: What Have We Gained? Impact of Raising the Speed Limit on Interurban Highways on Accidents, Deaths and Injuries in Israel." Thesis for Master of Public Health degree. The Hebrew University, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, 1996. Following Yisrael Kessar's November 1993 decision to raise the speed limit on Israel's three interurban highways from 90 kph to 100 kph, the death toll jumped by an additional 40 to 60 fatalities annually -- both on the highways themselves and throughout the system

(38.) G. Ginsberg, E. Fletcher, B. Michael and E.D. Richter, "Deaths Resulting from the Trans Israel Highway and Alternatives: A Risk Assessment." World Transport Policy and Practice, UK, 3/4 1977, 4-10.

(39.) Dutch Ministry of Transport, "Bicycle Master Plan," Structured Scheme for Traffic and Transport. 1993.

(40.) Ibid. Trans Israel Highway Company, Traffic Analysis and Economic Evaluation pp. 12-13. A travel survey of Israeli holders of driver's licenses revealed that the number of people who walk to work declined from around 20 percent in 1984 to about 10 percent or less in 1994.

(41.) Comparative statistics on pedestrian deaths per capita are drawn from: European Conference Of Ministers of Transport. Urban Travel and Sustainable Development ECMT-OECD, Paris, 1995, p. 53; "Statistics on Pedestrian Deaths (1991) as a Percentage of Road Deaths" are from New Scientist and Central Bureau of Statistics, Statistical Abstract of Israel 1992 Table 18.27.

(42.) Ibid. The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, Transport and the Environment p. 129. & Ibid. Per Kageson, Getting The Prices Right p. 88.

(43.) Ibid. The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, Transport and the Environment. "Freight Transport Modes, Energy Uses and Emissions," pg. 167.

(44.) Ya'akov Garb, "The Trans Israel Highway: Do We Know Enough to Proceed?" The Floursheimer Institute for Policy Studies, Working Paper No. 5, Jerusalem, April, 1997.

(45.) City of Copenhagen, "P-Guide to Copenhagen," parking guide for tourists, 1996.

(46.) Aharon Seeri, Ministry of Environment, personal communication, July, 1998.