Happy days are here again, the sky above is clear again.

For some people, those words are a refrain from an old 1930's campaign song of Franklin Roosevelt's. The melody and words allow the singer to bring many meanings and interpretations. It can be a song of happiness and joy or as a Streisand recording has done make the lyric one of sarcasm, betrayal and utter despair. A song perfect for the ups and downs of our world.

Our current real estate market has prices spiralling upward for properties. Banks are once again eager to finance deals. Brokers are calling, searching for product to sell. It's amazing how the cycle works, running from the depths of depression to the dizzying heights of ecstatic jubilation.

"Lets sing a song of cheer again. Happy days are here again."

Franklin Roosevelt was a masterful politician. He instinctively knew that people felt better when they saw something happening. Even if the noise and excitement accomplished nothing, it was better than inaction. Inaction reminded the electorate of Hoover and the Republicans, whose answer to the economic depression was that government had no place meddling in the nation's economic well-being. Home relief (welfare) was not in the best interest of the people. Better that they should rely on private charities for help when adversity came their way.

Just as we have a real estate cycle, it seems we have a government cycle. Sixty years ago, aid programs (that are now very suspect) were started to alleviate the problems of the poor and workers who couldn't find employment because of the depression. My grandfather was a W.P.A. beneficiary. Roosevelt spent money the government didn't have to stimulate the economy and make sure people didn't starve. As time went on, the deficit mentality became the credo of Washington, culminating in the sad fiscal state we find our nation in today.

So how does the same Washington that made this mess propose fixing it? They do not want to consider cutting middle class entitlements such as social security, but have instead eliminated AFDC. Welfare for the rich is okay, but the poor have become dependent and therefore don't deserve it. The one place where the poor can gain the skills necessary to support themselves - our class rooms - aren't teaching much of anything, while bureaucracies continue to address nonsense such as the legitimacy of theories like ebonics.

"All together stand and shout. There is no one who can stop us now."

New York City was one of the last places in the nation to show economic growth in this current cycle. The only good local news we have had in the last few years is that our crime rate has fallen precipitously. Of course, with people not afraid of being killed and mugged on the street, they tend to go out more, shop, eat in restaurants and go to the movies. This in turn means they spend more money, which stimulates the economy.

As the financial capital of the world, we rely on the national and global economy for the economic health of our city. Who contributes more to the local economy; the two million dollar stock broker or the ten thousand dollar clerk? That is why it is important for us to remember that when the stock market inevitably falls, our local economy will once again be in a recession.

As I quote and paraphrase an old song, I do so not to return to those fabled yesterdays, but rather to show how all of history runs in patterns, including the political and economic cycles. Some experts will tell you that we are entering a new epoch where past performance has no bearing on the future. That is ridiculous and simply not true. What better indicator of predicting the future is there than our knowledge of the past.

The same arguments used 60 years ago are still being used today. Common sense on either side of the debate is lacking, so we end up with a most illogical result. Our nation's policies, for example, fluctuate from no aid to the indigent to a supposed constitutional right to receive government hand-outs indefinitely, regardless of circumstances. We travel from one extreme to the other, while the rational middle ground is left untried.

Happy days and happy times can now be sung with joy. Will we use these good years to help us plan for the inevitable bad ones that will follow? Or will we, as has been done in the past, ignore history and sing those same words in the future with sarcasm and hopelessness.

(The author is a real estate consultant advising owners, co-ops and condominiums. To respond, write him at 21 West 46th Street, NY, NY 10036 or call 212-921-8043).