HOW TO DUMP A GOVERNOR THE RIGHT WAY RECALL PROPONENTS MUST PAINT DAVIS AS THE SELLOUT THAT HE IS NOWADAYS.

Byline: Arnold Steinberg

FROM: Garry South, political guru 

TO: Gray Davis, governor

SUBJECT: Recall campaign

I have good news and bad news.

The good news is that the recall campaign against you is awkward. Therefore, you can play statesman. You can rally Democrats and independents, and even a few Republicans. You can enlist unfriendly columnists and even anti-Davis editorial writers to oppose this recall. Here's why:

(a) The recall campaign against you started too early. They should have waited until your tax hikes and budget cutbacks took hold, or at least were confirmed. Now, they risk being perceived as naysayers, obstructionists. They're politics-as-usual. Attack them for preventing you and other elected officials from resolving the state fiscal crisis.

(b) The recall campaign against you is too Republican. They should have enlisted independents, Democrats and good-government types in a broad coalition. Now, they risk being perceived as sore losers, opportunists. They're sour grapes. Attack them for a narrow political agenda and abusing the electoral process for partisan ends.

(c) The recall campaign against you has no strategy. They should have planned ahead and studied your vulnerabilities and your defenses, then simulated the campaign before a real one. Now, they are throwing everything against you. They're reckless. Attack them for being negative and setting a dangerous and radical precedent. If this recall gets on the ballot, and you defeat it, you'll be the giant slayer. Maybe you could still run for president in 2008.

Alas, the bad news is that a recall campaign against you might be successful. There are two ways that you become history. First, this recall campaign, however clumsy, might succeed directly. The recall needs roughly 900,000 valid signatures. The reality is that at least 8 million voters have an unfavorable opinion of you. With enough money, this recall campaign could gather enough signatures within the prescribed 160 days. Then, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante must call a special election to decide your fate. If a majority of voters in that special election votes to recall you, then a plurality of voters elects your successor.

But, as I implied, the current recall campaign appears so partisan that the media and Democrats almost certainly would circle the wagons around you. But can they protect you against the momentum of recall fever?

Second, the recall campaign might succeed indirectly. Even if this recall self-destructs in a matter of weeks, it could set the stage for a more credible effort. That could mean a more serious and broader-based recall campaign. The reality is that many non-Republicans would support a more thoughtful recall campaign. They simply must feel it's not a Republican scheme to replay last year's election. But, as I implied, the current recall campaign then could be a stalking horse for the real thing. We could be diverted into attacking this Republican recall, while they bring on the heavy artillery. Can you survive the real thing?

So far, this recall campaign is inconsistent. They criticize you for ``out-of-control spending.'' Then, they attack you for proposing ``massive cuts.'' They're all over the map. They don't make the case. They don't bear the burden of proof. What about the people in the middle they need? Recall proponents must paint you as the failure that you are. After all, you did sign long-term contracts to buy energy at outrageous prices. We can keep blaming Enron, but people realize you really messed up. You made really bad decisions. The recall campaign must convince voters that you are uniquely, not routinely, incompetent.

Recall proponents must paint you as the sellout that you are. After all, you did spend more time than any other politician on fund raising. We can keep saying there is no connection between campaign contributions and public policy, but nobody believes us. The recall campaign must convince voters that you are egregiously worse than other politicians.

Voters must feel: ``We're mad as hell, and we're not going to take it anymore.'' Yet, voters must see the recall campaign as more than punitive. They must feel that some good will come of it. That requires the nonpartisan spin that cannot be provided by the usual suspects.

Above all, the recall campaign must focus on why you should be recalled. Not on who will take your place. That's difficult for them. They've made this a Republican campaign to recall a Democrat. Not smart. But they can still regroup. Start over. Do it right.

Let's hope they don't read my memo.