HOUSING SALES, PRICES RISE IN VENTURA COUNTY.

Byline: Terry Kanakri Daily News Staff Writer

Homes sales in Ventura County increased by 32 percent in Feburary compared with year-ago figures, while the average price of homes increased slightly.

Analysts, saying they expect the housing market recovery to be gradual, warned that any further increase in mortgage rates could slow down home buying activity and send the real estate market back into decline.

The latest statistics, however, are proof that the county's real estate market is benefiting from recent upswings in the economy, according to Chris McClintock, president of the Conejo Valley Association of Realtors.

"I'm not an overwhelming optimist, I'm rather cautious by nature. But I'm looking at these figures and I'm seeing the brightest picture that I've seen in a long time," she said.

TRW REDI Property Data reported 643 single-family homes, condominiums and town houses were sold in Ventura County in February, up from 486 during the same month of 1995.

That increase came after a 7.5 percent improvement in home sales reported by TRW REDI in January compared with year-earlier figures.

TRW REDI also reported that home prices are stabilizing after several declines in 1995.

Last month, the average sale price of a home was $223,401, up from $221,872.

Despite that, TRW REDI market research analyst Nima Nattagh said prices are not yet stable enough to convince many home owners to sell and make a move to a larger house.

"In many cases, they still continue to decline," Nattagh said. "The demand for housing is simply not there and, if the means is not there, it's not going to push up the prices."

So far, 1996 home sales have been promising, Nattagh added, but he warned against overconfidence.

"I don't think the evidence is there to suggest that we're out of the woods," he said. "But it's a good start."

TRW REDI reported February home sales in Simi Valley increased by 10.4 percent for a total of 106. Thousand Oaks reported a 27.7 percent increase for a total of 129. In Moorpark, however, home sales declined by 5 percent for a total of 38.

Debbie Rodgers Teasley, district manager of Coldwell Town & Country, which serves Simi Valley and Moorpark, said the threat of increasing interest rates has spurred many people to buy a home now. A 30-year fixed interest rate is about 8 percent now.

"People always want to take advantage of interest rates before they skyrocket," she said. "Not knowing where it's going to stop, it's much smarter if you can qualify at 8 percent to purchase the home now and take advantage of whatever the current interest rate is. Don't wait for it to make another change because it may continue to go up."

The Labor Department reported that the nation's economy boomed in February, producing 705,000 new jobs - the biggest monthly gain in 13 years. However, such a boost has triggered fears of inflation and of interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve Bank.

"Whenever there's a threat of inflation, the Fed does not lower interest rates," Nattagh said.

McClintock said she does not foresee interest rates surging to a point where they will stifle home sales, however.

"It may affect a few sales where people are stretched out to the max," she said. "It may affect slightly the maximum price that a buyer can pay."

HOME SALES

The sale of new and existing homes in Ventura County increased by 32 percent in February compared with year-ago figures, rising from 486 to 643. The following is the breakdown of sales in east county cities:

City 1995 1996 Change

Simi Valley 96 106 10.4 %

Thousand Oaks 101 129 + 27.7 %

Moorpark 40 38 - 5.0 %

TRW REDI Property Data

CAPTION(S):

CHART

Chart (Color) HOME SALES (See text)