HOUSING MARKET SOFTER YET.

Byline: GREGORY J. WILCOX Staff Writer

The San Fernando Valley's residential real estate market continued weakening in October with home and condominium sales well under the year-ago level and prices making modest gains, a trade association said Wednesday.

Last month homes sales fell an annual 22.7 percent to 771 transactions, the lowest level for the month since 642 sales in 1992, said the Southland Regional Association of Realtors.

Sales have been under the year-ago level every month since last October. They made annual declines in both 2004 and last year but the 12-month totals still ranked among the best ever for the Valley.

The median house price increased an annual 1.7 percent in October, or $10,000, to $610,000, a record for the month. But it was $15,000 shy of June's all-time record of $625,000.

``I think the market has found its level,'' said Jim Link, executive vice president at the Van Nuys-based association. ``This is the type of solid activity we'll see for a while, at least until spring of next year.''

The median price is expected to bounce around its current level well into next year, he said.

The condominium market followed a similar pattern. Sales fell 31.2 percent to 249 transactions, the lowest October since 257 sales in 1998.

The median price rose 6.5 percent, or $25,000, to $410,000. The record is last February's $415,000.

Association President Steve White said October's numbers equal about 80 percent of the past boom markets.

``One of the myths out there is that prices are plunging, but they are not. In fact prices are still rising but at a reasonable pace,'' he said.

That means the market is likely reaching a balance point.

At month's end there were 6,791 houses and condominiums listed for sale, a 6.7-month supply at the current sales pace and up 58.7 percent from a year ago.

In March 2004 inventory hit a record-low 1.7 months.

The buildup means that buyers have more choice, and this has helped cool the once-hot price appreciation.

``There are no panic sales, no one is losing money,'' Link said. ``All that has been lost is the madness and the quick profits. Those days are gone.''

Neither he nor White anticipate a big price drop, big inventory increase or a return to the days of multiple offers from buyers.

Daniel Blake, director of the San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center at California State University, Northridge, agrees with the association's outlook.

``That's what we believe and that's what the (economic) models are saying. Basically (prices) are going to be flat, but there will be up and down wiggles in the median.''

greg.wilcox(at)dailynews.com

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SOURCE: Southland Regional Association of Realtors

Gregg Miller/Staff Artist