HOUSING BOOM WIMPS OUT EXPERTS ANTICIPATE THAT VALLEY HOME PRICES WILL STABILIZE, NOT PLUNGE.

Byline: JULIA M. SCOTT Staff Writer

The national boom that has doubled and tripled the price of homes in the San Fernando Valley region and beyond in recent years is over.

The inventory of homes for sale in the Valley has more than doubled since August 2005 and while prices are just inching up locally, they actually dipped nationwide for the first time in 11 years, according to figures released Monday.

``This isn't a bursting bubble or sky falling,'' said John Karevoll of DataQuick Information Systems in San Diego. ``It's just the end of a real-estate cycle.''

The stockpile of Valley homes reached 6,832 properties, compared with 3,167 this time last year.

Sales of single-family homes in the Valley dropped 32.9 percent in August compared with a year ago, amounting to 11 consecutive months of decline. Statewide sales of existing homes fell 30.1 percent, a mark that hasn't been matched since 1982.

However, Valley home prices last month rose 4.7 percent, to $560,000 from $535,000 a year ago, according to the California Association of Realtors, which provided data comparing sales in August with those a year ago for all types of homes.

Nationwide, median prices year to year slipped 1.7 percent, to $225,000, according to the National Association of Realtors. In Orange County, they slid 2.5 percent, and in San Diego, they dropped 3 percent.

Being a Realtor these days is harder than it was three years ago, said Sylvia Matchett of Century 21 in Encino.

``Buyers now have a choice,'' Matchett said. ``Three years ago it was like, `This is in our price range. Let's make an offer and hope we get it.'''

Slackening prices are part of a balancing act that experts have been predicting after seeing years of double-digit price increases.

Lower prices will be a good thing -- for some.

``In California, people have been priced out of the housing market,'' said Nima Nattagh, an independent market analyst. Relatively low interest rates and a fair economy could put more people in a position to buy.

Interest rates rose for 30-year fixed mortgages to 6.52 percent from 5.82 percent year to year, CAR reported. Adjustable-rate mortgages increased to 5.64 percent last month from 4.55 percent last year.

For those looking, there are plenty of properties to consider.

In the Santa Clarita Valley, the number of homes on the market ballooned from 1,400 to 3,600 from August 2005 to last month, said Jim Link, Southland Association of Realtors spokesman.

Houses are sitting around longer once they are listed. It took a median of 52 days for a home to sell last month, with half the homes selling quicker, and half selling slower. Last year the median was 29 days.

At that rate, it would take almost seven months to sell all the houses on the market. A year ago, it was 2.6 months.

Inventory could well shrink in the fall, said Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist at CAR.

``Partly because of looky-loo sellers who don't really need to sell but are hoping to get top dollar,'' Kleinhenz said. ``People will take it off if it doesn't sell in 60 days when the listing expires.''

Sellers may bristle, but market forces may push prices down 4 percent to 5 percent by year's end, Nattagh said.

``The longer you hold out there is a possibility of getting a better deal,'' he said. ``But if you're looking for discounts upward of 10 percent, it's not going to happen.''

julia.scott(at)dailynews.com

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Sources: California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors