HOUSING'S HURTING, BUT IMPACT WON'T HIT HARD.Byline: GREGORY J. WILCOX To Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA UCLA University of California at Los Angeles UCLA University Center for Learning Assistance (Illinois State University) UCLA University of Carrollton, TX and Lower Addison, TX Anderson Forecast, they are the Big Three. And they have only a passing relationship to the Motor City. Their names are The Housing Market, The Labor Market labor market A place where labor is exchanged for wages; an LM is defined by geography, education and technical expertise, occupation, licensure or certification requirements, and job experience and The Foreign Exchange Market. This triumvirate Triumvirate (trīŭm`vĭrĭt, –vĭrāt'), in ancient Rome, ruling board or commission of three men. Triumvirates were common in the Roman republic. will determine the U.S. economy's future. One, THM, is now being roiled to the point that last week UCLA devoted its entire second- quarter forecast to it. Signs of weakness in the residential real estate market are visible wherever you look -- in the San Fernando Valley San Fernando Valley Valley, southern California, U.S. Northwest of central Los Angeles, the valley is bounded by the San Gabriel, Santa Susana, and Santa Monica mountains and the Simi Hills. , Southern California Southern California, also colloquially known as SoCal, is the southern portion of the U.S. state of California. Centered on the cities of Los Angeles and San Diego, Southern California is home to nearly 24 million people and is the nation's second most populated region, and the state. We'll find out this week what the bigger California picture looks like. We already know that the local ones are no longer pretty. For example, in the Valley, sales have been falling from their year-ago level since last October. And in May the median price, the point at which half the homes cost more and half less, increased a scant 4.3 percent. That was the smallest amount in more than five years. Those heady times of strong double-digit price appreciation appear over. May's rate also indicates that prices have been relatively flat for 12 consecutive months, though with the median Valley price at $600,000, a 4.3 percent gain equaled $25,000 in equity. And the median price is still closer to the March record of $615,000 than the year-ago level. The ramifications ramifications npl → Auswirkungen pl will play out over the summer. UCLA's detailed analysis indicates that the damage may be confined to THM. ``Our best guess is that, this time ... the problems will be mostly in real estate and will not produce a national recession,'' Leamer wrote in his assessment. He likened the housing market to a rocket that is running out of fuel. This will result in some job losses in real estate-related professions but it won't leak to other sectors such as manufacturing. One reason is that manufacturing hasn't yet recovered from the 2001 recession so ``there may be very few (jobs) left to lose.'' Daniel Blake, director of the San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center at California State University, Northridge CSUN offers a variety of programs leading to bachelor's degrees in 61 fields and master's degrees in 42 fields. The university has over 150,000 alumni. It's also home to a summer musical theater/theater program known as TADW (TeenAge Drama Workshop) that leads teenagers through an , concurs. What might be the wild card is TFEM TFEM Territorial Force Efficiency Medal (UK) TFEM Thanks for Enlightening Me , commonly referred to as the bond market. It's an international beast. ``The liquidity is coming from overseas and it's China and Japan that are largely supplying the funds to the U.S.,'' Blake said. They do that by purchasing treasury bonds, and that in turn creates a symbiotic relationship symbiotic relationship (sim´bīot´ik), n in implantology, that relationship assumed by an implant and the natural teeth to which it has been splinted. with the good old 30-year fixed-mortgage interest rate. Basically, more foreign investment means a better deal interest rate-wise for anyone talking out a long-term home loan. Possible trouble could come from Japan, which has had a zero short-term rate for a while. Some European countries are also starting to tick up short-term rates. That, in turn, could reduce the flow of foreign funds into the U.S. bond market. ``The threat is not so much from the job market. The housing market is slowing and that isn't the threat either. It's the bond market,'' Blake said. greg.wilcox(at)dailynews.com (818) 713-3743 |
|
||||||||||||||||
Printer friendly
Cite/link
Email
Feedback
Reader Opinion