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HOME BUILDING SLAMS ON THE BRAKES.


Byline: GREGORY J. WILCOX

The home-building sector received a pounding in the second quarter. And the hammering is going to continue in this quarter, too.

``If bad news came in torrents in the first quarter, the second quarter was a tidal wave tidal wave, term properly applied to the crest of a tide as it moves around the earth. The wavelike upstream rush of water caused by the incoming tide in some locations is known as a tidal bore. ,'' analyst Steven East of Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP LLLP Limited Liability Limited Partnership  said in an assessment that arrived in my in-box on Friday.

``We believe participants in this sector will look back and say this was the quarter that reality set in for both investors and management teams.''

The badness that came forth in earnings reports included widespread land option write-offs, plummeting order rates and gross margins, and skyrocketing cancellation rates, according to according to
prep.
1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of: according to historians.

2. In keeping with: according to instructions.

3.
 East.

Some of this visited Calabasas-based The Ryland Group, which sells homes in 16 states coast to coast.

For example, in its second- quarter earnings released in the middle of last month the company reported that:

Orders plunged 39.4 percent to 3,023 units from the like period in 2005, the second-biggest decline for the sector.

Profits fell 9.1 percent for the quarter ended June 30 to $94.8 million, equal to $2.03 per share, from $104.3 million, $2.10 per share, in the year-ago period.

Revenues totaled $1.2 billion for the quarter ended, up 3.2 percent.

In a conference call at the time, Ryland Chief Executive Officer Chad Dreier said that selling homes is now a challenge in nearly every market.

``While we knew that eventually there would be a slowdown in housing, this downturn happened quicker than expected,'' he said during the call, according to the Web site MarketWatch.com.

Ryland officials could not be reached on Friday.

East doesn't see much relief in sight.

``Orders are negative for all builders and a disaster for most,'' he said, noting that they were down nearly 25 percent sector-wide.

``We wish we could say at least one builder had growth, but we can't ... Dramatically ballooning cancellation rates created carnage in the industry.''

Hanley Wood Market Intelligence released on Friday offered more evidence that the slowdown has traction.

Both the new and previously owned housing markets showed signs of malaise in June. New home sales New Home Sales

An economic indicator that measures sales of newly built homes. Released by the U.S. Department of Commerce's Census Bureau, it includes both quantity and price statistics.
 fell 3 percent May to June.

Year-over-year they are off 11 percent. At this pace there is a 6.1-month supply on the market, the company said.

And May's 6.8-month supply of previously owned homes for sale is a glut glut pronounced as rut, slut Vox populi An excess of a service or skilled labor in a particular area. See Physician glut.  not seen since May 1993.

On a seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted

Mathematically adjusted by moderating a macroeconomic indicator (e.g., oil prices/imports) so that relative comparisons can be drawn from month to month all year.
 basis, sales of previously owned homes have fallen from their year-ago level for seven consecutive months. June's 8.94 percent drop was the biggest since April 1995.

Sales declines are bigger in California. Weakness in the resale market is not going to help the new home market get out of its funk, either.

``In the months ahead we can expect to see continued volatility in the market as many homebuyers remain on the sidelines On the sidelines

An investor who decides not to invest due to market uncertainty.


on the sidelines

Of or relating to investors who, having assessed the market, have decided to avoid committing their funds.
 to ensure they won't be buying homes that could be in the middle of a downward turn in valuation,'' Hanley Wood said.

One thing is certain.

We haven't seen a prime homebuying season like this in a long time.

Finally: E-mail from Happy Renter offers this observation on the observation of Jay Brinkmann, vice president of research at the Mortgage Bankers Mortgage Banker

A company, individual or institution that originates, sells and services mortgage loans.

Notes:
Don't confuse a mortgage banker with a mortgage broker.
 Association, about the spike in foreclosure foreclosure

Legal proceeding by which a borrower's rights to a mortgaged property may be extinguished if the borrower fails to live up to the obligations agreed to in the loan contract.
 activity during the second quarter.

Brinkmann: ``There is nothing in economic fundamentals in household creation or job creation that is looking toward any kind of meltdown meltdown

Occurrence in which a huge amount of thermal energy and radiation is released as a result of an uncontrolled chain reaction in a nuclear power reactor. The chain reaction that occurs in the reactor's core must be carefully regulated by control rods, which absorb
 in housing prices. I think we are just getting back to a more normal market.''

Happy Renter: ``Oh, yes! There is! Most people's incomes aren't going up, yet everything else that is necessary (food, gas, housing, medical) is going up.''

greg.wilcox(at)dailynews.com

(818) 713-3743
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Title Annotation:Business
Publication:Daily News (Los Angeles, CA)
Date:Aug 6, 2006
Words:625
Previous Article:ONE IDEA.(Business)
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