HOLLYWOOD BANKING ON `DA VINCI'.

Byline: GREG HERNANDEZ Staff Writer

The movie industry is counting on the controversial film ``The Da Vinci Code,'' arriving in theaters today amid international furor and mostly tepid reviews, to kick the summer box office season into high gear.

May had widely been thought to be a month with record-setting potential, but ``Mission: Impossible III'' performed below its lofty expectations and the big-budget disaster film ``Poseidon'' is quickly sinking.

``Da Vinci,'' which squares off against ``Over the Hedge,'' a highly anticipated release from DreamWorks Animation, has box office prognosticators predicting a three-day opening weekend from $50 million to nearly $100 million.

Distributor Sony Entertainment Pictures is keeping its expectations in the $50 million to $70 million range. ``Anything over that will be huge,'' said a studio source, acknowledging that ``Hedge'' will draw the families and kids while ``Da Vinci'' is tracking ``very, very well'' primarily with adults.

``Da Vinci'' will be opening in 3,700 theaters and in 95 percent of foreign markets, although some theaters have decided not to show it. It had been kept tightly under wraps until its poorly received premiere at the Cannes Film Festival this week, followed by some harsh reviews.

``Da Vinci,'' directed by Ron Howard and starring Tom Hanks, has also been the target of protests and boycotts from various Christian groups including the Vatican itself. The movie is based on Dan Brown's blockbuster novel that suggests Jesus fathered a child with Mary Magdalene and that the secret is being covered up by the Catholic Church at all costs, even murder.

Will all of this hurt or help opening weekend business? Opinions are mixed.

Box office tracker Robert Bucksbaum, president of Reel Source Inc., said Thursday that ``Da Vinci'' has the highest awareness factor of any film he has tracked since the first ``Spider-Man,'' which opened to a record $114.8 million, and ``The Passion of the Christ,'' which had an $83.8 million opening.

``Forty million books translates into $80 million at the box office, and even people who haven't read it know about it. The awareness and interest is through the roof,'' Bucksbaum said. ``Religious themes were once the death of box office, but since `The Passion of the Christ' are now the hottest ticket around. It could open close to $100 million.''

But Gitesh Pandya, editor of BoxOfficeGuru.com, thinks the reviews and protests could result in a lower opening weekend figure than he originally expected,and now his prediction is in the $50 million to $60 million range.

``This is an adult-skewing film, and adults listen to critics, so there is going to be somewhat of an impact, but it's just a matter of how much,'' Pandya said. ``I think the hard-core fans of the book are going to be coming out regardless. The other half of the audience would be people who did not read the book but were sucked into the media hoopla.''

But Bucksbaum downplayed possible impact from critics, including one review in The New York Times with a disparaging headline: ``A Code That Takes Longer To Watch Than Read.''

``This is something that people are just going to have to see for themselves, and critics will not matter,'' he said.

Online ticket seller Fandango released advance-sales figures Thursday that showed 81 percent of its ticket sales this week were for ``Da Vinci,'' with only 4 percent for ``Over the Hedge,'' 2 percent for ``MI:III'' and 1 percent for ``Poseidon.''

Fandango surveyed ``Da Vinci'' ticket buyers and found that 88 percent of them had read the novel, 74 percent said their religious beliefs did not affect their interest in seeing the film, and 71 percent said the controversy surrounding the movie did not affect their interest in the movie.

Of the advance ticket buyers, 31 percent were Catholic and 21 percent Protestant, while 17 percent described themselves as ``spiritual without choosing any specific sect.''

Pandya said there is heavy pressure for ``Da Vinci'' to perform well, especially after ``MI:III'' bowed about $10 million below expectations domestically ($47.7 million), while ``Poseidon'' washed up at $22.2 million last weekend.

``I think it will open with a bang and the second weekend should be solid also, but I think the long-term strength will be dependent upon the word of mouth,'' Pandya said. ``I think the industry is looking at `The Da Vinci Code' as the savior.''

greg.hernandez(at)dailynews.com

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