HOLLYWOOD'S BIG GAMBLE ON WINTER : WILL BLIZZARD OF BLOCKBUSTERS FOLLOW NEW RELEASE STRATEGY?

Byline: Janet Weeks Daily News Staff Writer

If snuggling in front of a warm fire on a cold day is good, then snuggling before a raging volcano spewing molten lava is better, right?

At least, that's what Hollywood is hoping as it unleashes a record number of films this winter, including a big-budget volcano movie along with some other high-profile films.

With its harsh weather, winter is traditionally a slack time for films. But this year, a film industry undaunted by rain and snow is sending a flood of new movies into release.

Thirty-three films are set to open nationwide in January and February - up 27 percent from 26 titles in 1996 and a new record for releases in the first two months of the year.

Throw in March openers and movies in limited release, and you have a whopping 87 films debuting this winter, up 17 percent from the 73 movies released in the first quarter of last winter, according to Exhibitor Relations, a distribution tracking service.

Analysts attribute the increase to two factors: the industry's search for cine-seasons beyond summer and Christmas and the construction of new movie theaters.

``This is a 52-week-a-year business, and we can't crowd everything into Christmas and summer and Easter and Memorial Day,'' says Tom Sherak, senior executive vice president of Fox Filmed Entertainment.

And unlike past years, when winter was a niche for studio leftovers bumped from the crowded Christmas schedule, '97 winter films include some big-budget, would-be blockbusters being given big pushes.

Originally there were two volcano movies scheduled to open this winter, but Universal's ``Dante's Peak'' won the race, sending 20th Century Fox's ``Volcano'' to a later opening.

Besides lava, there also won't be a shortage of star power with ``Absolute Power,'' the Clint Eastwood political thriller, Val Kilmer's remake of ``The Saint'' and Jim Carrey's comedy ``Liar, Liar'' set to open this winter.

20th Century Fox also is re-releasing a much-anticipated made-over version of the ``Star Wars'' trilogy.

Altogether, the films are hoped to bring audiences into theaters and keep them coming back throughout the year.

``I think that (movie theater owners) finally have what they've always asked for - a steady flow of product,'' says Phil Barlow, president of Disney's Buena Vista distribution.

According to the National Association of Theater Owners, 1,888 new screens were added to the American landscape in 1996, which represents a 6.3 percent growth rate. Association spokesman Jim Kozak called last year's jump ``well above average.''

There are no signs of that growth rate slowing down, Kozak says. AMC alone will add 500 new screens in the next 12 months - more than triple the 136 screens the company added last year.

``There are a lot of wonderful new theaters and a much better concept on exhibition's part in terms of sound and picture,'' says Barlow. ``Things are picking up. Maybe we're in a period that allows a few more films to be released. I think it's exciting.''

Although perhaps less exciting for Disney than the other studios. Truth is, Disney has been releasing films in winter for about 10 years, with successful results. Disney's past January hits include ``The Hand That Rocks the Cradle'' ($88 million in domestic grosses), ``Mr. Holland's Opus'' ($82.6 million) and ``Down and Out in Beverly Hills'' ($62.1 million). Disney's Hollywood Pictures opens ``The Shadow Conspiracy'' with Charlie Sheen on Friday.

``We discovered January a long time ago,'' Barlow says. ``And we've had good luck with January.''

Of other studios now hoping to copy Disney's ``good luck,'' Barlow jokes: ``I wish all movies success, and I wish they would all stay away from us.''

Fox's Sherak, however, says studios and independent distributors are not quite as dedicated to winter as Disney, and probably won't be after this year. He says this year's winter boom has to do with capturing audience momentum built up during the last seven months.

He credited the summer mega-movie ``Independence Day,'' which broke records by becoming the fastest movie ever to reach the $100 million mark, as the source of the momentum. ``The First Wives Club'' furthered the frenzy in the fall and helped make a strong Christmas.

``Movies have been, over the last 20 years, a way to get out of the house,'' he says. ``People go to movies to have a good time. When there are movies they're having fun with, that's when they go.''

But entertainment analyst David Davis of the Los Angeles-based investment banking firm Houlihan, Lokey, Howard and Zukin says that despite optimism about winter, most producers still would prefer to release films in summer and December, when ticket buyers have more free time.

In summer, there's also the time-tested lure of air conditioning on a hot day.

He says that often studios have no choice but to release a film in winter because there are no other slots in a crammed calendar.

``It's more of a result of having to settle for January,'' Davis says. ``January is like September. It's really a time that most people are going back to school and work. That's why, historically, it's been a lull period.''

Indeed, January is even trickier than September because one raging blizzard in the Midwest or Northeast can destroy a weekend's box office.

But Hollywood is willing to take the gamble, says Barlow.

``There's always an excuse for never releasing a picture - the weather, the opposition product, school's in, school's out. And of course there's always the danger of an earthquake in California.

``So where do you go? This is a business that relies on creative marketing. And for that, we remain pragmatic optimists.''

CAPTION(S):

Drawing, 4 Photos

Drawing: (Cover--Color) IT'S RAINING FILM

With a record number of releases, Hollywood is trying to make winter the new season for movies

Jon Gerung/Daily News

Photo: (1) This winter's releases include Paramount's remake of ``The Saint,'' starring Val Kilmer and Elisabeth Shue.

(2) The first volcano-themed film to explode on the screen this year is ``Dante's Peak,'' with Pierce Brosnan and Linda Hamilton.

(3) Clint Eastwood directs and stars in the thriller ``Absolute Power.''

(4) Charlie Sheen is a Washington insider marked for death in another winter release, ``Shadow Conspiracy.''