HOLLYWOOD: THE RISE OF FALL SMASH-HIT SEASON OF GOLD FORECAST FOR SILVER SCREEN.

Byline: Greg Hernandez Staff Writer

The coming fall box office season is quickly shaping up to be one of the most competitive ever as the movie industry is poised to cross the $9 billion threshold for the first time in a single year.

More than 50 major movies, including new chapters of the hugely successful ``Harry Potter'' ``Lord of the Rings,'' James Bond and ``Star Trek'' franchises, will be tripping over each other for available screens in the coming months, vying for the attention of moviegoers and Academy Award voters.

``I think $9 billion is certainly possible with all that firepower at the end of year,'' said Gitesh Pandya, editor of BoxOfficeGuru.com. ``November and December are two months that are packed with can't-miss blockbusters.''

Last year's total box office take was a record $8.35 billion, with admissions also at a record level. While Hollywood continued this wave during a summer of record business, audiences have dwindled for seven consecutive weeks as the late-summer films proved to have little appeal, with the notable exceptions of ``Signs,'' ``XXX'' and ``My Big Fat Greek Wedding.''

Experts don't expect a return to record numbers until November, when the studios begin to unleash their heavy artillery again.

``I don't think this is going to be a fall filled with blockbusters but a fall filled with Oscar contenders,'' said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box office tracker Exhibitor Relations Co. ``There are so many interesting and seemingly high-quality films.''

Dergarabedian mentions ``Moonlight Mile,'' starring Oscar-winners Dustin Hoffman and Susan Sarandon, and ``White Oleander,'' which features Michelle Pfeiffer and Renee Zellweger as potential standouts. Pandya is bullish on Disney's ``Sweet Home Alabama,'' starring Reese Witherspoon, and Universal's ``Red Dragon,'' in which Anthony Hopkins reprises the role of Hannibal Lecter.

``Reese Witherspoon is red-hot after 'Legally Blonde' and there's a large, growing audience that wants to see her in pictures like this,'' Pandya said. ``It will be a big hit and a great date movie.''

Movies that have made huge impressions during the early fall months in previous seasons range from comedies like ``First Wives Club,'' ``Meet the Parents'' and ``You've Got Mail'' to the dramas ``Remember the Titans'' and ``Double Jeopardy,'' as well as the thriller ``I Know What You Did Last Summer.''

``Films from every genre have thrived in this time period,'' Dergarabedian said. ``It's not normally a boom time but a time for quality movies to shine.''

But come November, experts say the lines at the megaplex will reappear with the same fervor as early summer when ``Spider-Man,'' ``Star Wars: Episode I - Attack of the Clones'' and ``Men in Black II'' brought in massive crowds.

Warner Bros.' ``Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets'' is expected to do the same kind of phenomenal business as last year's ``Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone.'' The first ``Potter'' film grossed $317.6 million at the box office making it the eighth-highest moneymaker of all time.

Following ``Potter'' into the theaters will be New Line Cinema's ``The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers,'' a follow-up to last winter's smash ``The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring,'' which had a stellar $313.4 million box office performance and is also in the top 10 of all-time grossers.

Dergarabedian said ``Potter'' and ``Rings'' films are just two of a series of movies expected to grab large audiences.

``Die Another Day,'' MGM's latest James Bond film starring Pierce Brosnan should easily surpass $100 million, based on the performances of the three most recent Bond films dating back to 1995 when Brosnan took over the title role. Also expected to hit big is Paramount's ``Star Trek: Nemesis,'' the latest offering from a classic sci-fi franchise that continues to endure both on television and the big screen.

High-profile sequels include Disney's ``Santa Clause 2,'' Warner Bros.' ``Analyze That,'' and Disney's ``Shanghai Knights.''

November and December will bring such high-profile films as Disney's animated holiday release ``Treasure Planet,'' which comes on the heels of the studio's major summer animated hit ``Lilo & Stitch.'' Another big commercial title is Warner Bros.' ``I Spy'' starring Eddie Murphy and Owen Wilson.

``All of a sudden it becomes like summer again and people getting excited about going back to the movies,'' Dergarabedian said. ``You lose the children's audience pretty much in September and October and you get them back in November and December.''

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Photo:

(1 -- color) Sean Astin and Elijah Wood star in ``Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers,'' expected to be huge from its opening Dec. 18.

Pierre Vinet/New Line Cinema

(2 -- color) Daniel Radcliffe will return as the famed child wizard in ``Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets'' on Nov. 15.

(3) Made a star by ``Legally Blonde,'' Reese Witherspoon, left, is expected to score big Sept. 27 with ``Sweet Home Alabama,'' kicking off a lucrative fall season for the major studio releases.

Peter Iovino/Touchstone Pictures