HOLIDAY FORECAST UPBEAT THIS SEASON OF SHOPPING IS NO TURKEY.Byline: JULIA M. SCOTT Staff Writer Holiday spending is expected to rise by 5 percent this year with retailers anticipating $457 billion in sales during the Nov. 1 through New Year's shopping spree, the National Retail Federation said Friday. Those spending increases are a notch above the average over the past 10 years, but a step down from how much holiday spending rose in 2005. ``Overall, a 5 percent increase in the current economic climate is very good,'' said federation spokesman Scott Krugman. Sales levels in the San Fernando Valley are often higher than the national average. ``Our income levels are above the nationwide levels so on that basis (people) will be spending more,'' said Dan Blake, director of the Economic Research Center of the San Fernando Valley at California State University, Northridge. But this year there are plenty of reasons why that might not come true. Record gas prices may set people back, even though filling up has dropped a few bucks in past weeks. A deflating real estate market has translated into lagging residential construction, offset slightly by spurts in commercial and industrial construction. Job growth has dropped slightly from 150,000 new jobs each month to about 125,000, Blake said. ``Some of the prognosticators say they are looking for more sluggish growth, so that could cut into the holiday spirit,'' Blake said. Retailers are making changes to encourage customers to spend big. This year, price scanners and digital signs will ``help the consumer make wise choices and informed choices,'' said Dan Butler at the federation. A handful of stores will open earlier than the Friday after Thanksgiving, the traditional start of holiday shopping. ``Last year we saw some indications of a couple of retailers that were open Thanksgiving day Thanksgiving Day, national holiday in the United States commemorating the Pilgrims' celebration of the harvest reaped by the Plymouth Colony in 1621, after a winter of great starvation and privation. The celebration was probably held in October. The neighboring Wampanoags, who outnumbered the colonists, joined them for three days and contributed food to the celebration. or Thanksgiving day at midnight,'' Butler said. ``This year we see a few more retailers following suit.'' julia.scott(at)dailynews.com (818) 713-3735 CAPTION(S): box Box: Holiday retail sales forecast Sales forecast A key input to a firm's financial planning process. External sales forecasts are based on historical experience, statistical analysis, and consideration of various macroeconomic factors. Source: National Retail Federation |
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