HOLIDAY BOX OFFICE GIFTS MOVIE INDUSTRY LOOKS TO BOND AND OTHERS FOR STRONG FINISH TO '06.

Byline: GREG HERNANDEZ Staff Writer

This year's slate of holiday season films has a tough act to follow when it comes to drawing a crowd.

The box-office trifecta of ``The Chronicles of Narnia,'' ``Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire'' and ``King Kong,'' released in the final six weeks of 2005, combined to gross almost $800 million domestically, giving the movie industry some badly needed momentum and helping to make up for a miserable year.

Year-to-date revenue in 2006 is up nearly 7 percent and attendance up 3.5 percent as of Sunday. But other than the new James Bond feature, ``Casino Royale,'' out Nov. 17, there are no other sure-fire blockbusters to guarantee the year will end with a similar bang, according to some box office analysts.

``Overall, the November-December slate is weaker than last year with no mega-franchises coming out,'' said Gitesh Pandya, editor of the Web site BoxOfficeGuru.com. ``But we do have James Bond, and I think that has mass appeal.''

The stellar performances of ``Saw III'' and ``The Departed'' aside, the months of September and October were fairly sleepy, which is typical. Still, it was nearly 3 percent ahead of 2005's fall season.

But starting today, the holiday season competition is officially on. Disney is releasing the Tim Allen comedy ``The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause,'' which runs smack up against the DreamWorks Animation title ``Flushed Away.'' To make things even more crowded, 20th Century Fox debuts its comedy ``Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan'' in more than 800 theaters, relying on word-of-mouth buzz rather than traditional marketing.

``The best tool for selling the movie is the movie,'' said Bruce Snyder, Fox's president of distribution. ``One of the issues is, there's nothing you can compare it to. The best weapon we have is to put it out in 837 theaters and let it crackle, then go wide the following week.''

The movie industry is enjoying a solid run, with box office receipts up over 2005 for five weekends in a row and 26 out of the last 32 weekends. Even if the box office exceeds last year's diappointing total, it will still be difficult to top 2004's record total.

November and December will be the real test.

``On a week-by-week basis, the holiday season can be one of the biggest- grossing periods of the year and is also important psychologically,'' said box office analyst Paul Dergarabedian, president of Exhibitor Relations Co. ``We're looking good right now, but we are now heading into a period where there are some tough comparisons to last year. I think there are enough big movies out there that we can maintain this lead, but the movies are going to have to be pretty strong.''

No blockbuster

fantasies

This will be the first time since 2001 that there hasn't been a fantasy epic on tap in December. Last year had the blockbuster ``Narnia,'' while the previous three Decembers were boosted by the hugely popular ``Lord of the Rings'' movies as well as some of the ``Harry Potter'' movies.

In the absence of those two franchises, Pandya is pointing to 20th Century Fox's ``Eragon'' to possibly be a breakout hit when it hits theaters Dec. 15.

Fox is hoping his instincts are correct. ``It's a fantasy-adventure that we are looking for that `Narnia' (audience),'' said Snyder. ``Obviously it won't do as high a gross, but we'd love to see something in that area.''

Sony Pictures Entertainment, which is distributing the ``Bond'' film, is bullish on its box-office chances, despite Pierce Brosnan being replaced as Agent 007 by Daniel Craig.

``Daniel Craig is James Bond,'' said Rory Bruer, Sony's president of distribution. ``I think everyone is going to be excited to see how this incredible franchise is being brought back in a very terrific and fresh way.''

Comedies on tap

Sony also has high hopes for ``Stranger than Fiction,'' (Nov. 10) starring Will Farrell, who is coming off the enormous success of the summer smash ``Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby.'' Fox is pointing to its Dec. 22 comedy ``Night at the Museum,'' starring Ben Stiller, Owen Wilson and Robin Williams, to do major business.

Additional comedies on tap include the animated ``Happy Feet'' from Warner Bros., ``Deck the Halls'' from Fox, ``Let's Go to Prison'' from Universal, and ``The Holiday'' from Sony.

High-profile releases will also come from New Line Cinema's period drama ``The Nativity Story,'' Will Smith displaying his dramatic chops in Sony's ``The Pursuit of Happyness,'' while Disney will unveil the Mel Gibson-directed period adventure ``Apocalypto.''

``It's a better year. I think we feel better,'' said Dan Glickman, head of the Motion Picture Association of America, which represents the interests of the major studios. ``To a large extent, it's better because the public like the movies that are out there. The last few months will have some very big movies, like the Bond movie, `Dreamgirls' and several holiday movies.''

Glickman said the rise of new technology that allows movies to be seen basically anywhere from a video iPod to an elaborate home theater ``is healthy, but at the same time, we remain very committed to the theatrical box office. It's just critical to the future of this business to get people to go to the movies in the traditional way.''

greg.hernandez(at)dailynews.com

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