HARD to Find EASY MONEY

A monstrous economic tsunami of epic proportions has enveloped the U.S. economy and its trading partners, triggering record unemployment and posing an unprecedented threat to global financial markets and households across America.

The dramatic upheaval continues to erode whatever benefits were derived from the vaunted trickle down Reaganomics policies of the '80s and '90s.

It's difficult to fathom, and even more difficult to find solutions, according to Philip Kirschner, who heads the 23,000-member New Jersey Business and Industry Association.

"I've talked to a number of people who've been in business 30, 40 years, they've all been through downturns, they've all been through recessions and what they're saying is that this has a different feel to it," said Kirschner.

"This is a recession that could last nine, twelve, eighteen months, with the credit markets being stuck and people not being able to get credit lines, the collapse of the stock market, this really put people back on their heels and has made them very, very anxious," he continued. "This is something new; we don't know how to react. People can't get their arms around it.

"Bottom line, there's no demand out there," he said.

As goes the world, so goes Mercer County.

"The numbers say we're not getting hit as hard as other places and that has a lot to do with our location and industrial mix," said Dr. Herbert Gishlick, a professor of economics at Rider University in Lawrenceville. "Going forward, it's really the global economic environment that drives a local economy, it's not the other way around, just like we don't drive the state economy, it comes from the top down," he added.

"To the degree we're not more vulnerable than the nation as a whole I would say that in the future we're not going to be any worse than what's happening nationally."

Bad credit, bad loans, bank failures, a dismal real estate market, an unprecedented federal bailout of financial institutions, a plunging stock market, excess inventory, fear and trepidation have triggered a flood of layoffs and shutdowns, with more than 1.2 million jobs lost in the U.S. this year:

* The U.S. auto industry is in serious trouble, with auto sales at their lowest point in 25 years; General Motors and Ford last month reported disastrous third-quarter results with both manufacturers warning they will run out of cash by next year unless the federal government helps to bail them out. Tens of thousands of auto workers have already been laid off this year, with more to come;

* Toyota, the world's second largest automaker behind GM, also reported steep losses in the third quarter;

* Earlier this year, Chrysler announced a massive cutback of 18,600 employees;

* Last month, international shipper DHL announced it was shutting down its U.S. operations, eliminating 9,500 jobs;

* Wholesale layoffs are coming fast and furious, touching all sectors - financial, service, manufacturing, transportation, construction, pharmaceuticals, publishing, leisure and hospitality; during the first week of November, eight companies announced significant layoffs: Circuit City said it was cutting its workforce by 17 percent, roughly 7,000 employees; Fidelity Investments, 1,300; drug company GlaxoSmithKline, 1,000; furniture maker La-Z-Boy, 850; toymaker Mattel, 500 and the Borgata Hotel Casino in Atlantic Cty, 375;

* In October, Goldman Sachs began laying off 12,000 workers; Pepsico announced a cutback of 3,300 workers; Xerox, 3,000; magazine publisher Time, 600, and Gannett, the publisher of USA Today and six daily newspapers in New Jersey, announced its third and largest round of layoffs this year, 3,000 workers nationwide at all 85 daily publications it owns.

The national rate of unemployment continues to climb, from 6.1 percent in September to 6.5 and though the New Jersey unemployment rate continues lower than the national average, another 3,900 jobs were lost in the Garden State in October.

The market jubilation that greeted Barack Obama's election as the 44th president of the United States was short-lived. The day following his election, the stock market tanked 500 points, and the following day, another 425 points, showing that rhetoric and promises of bi-partisanship will not be enough to return some semblance of order to the world's financial markets.

China last month announced a $586 stimulus plan for its stalled economy, which relies on its exports to markets worldwide; its central banking system has already cut interest rates three times this year.

The state of New Jersey has yet to recover the jobs it lost in the wake of the last recession triggered by the 9/11 terrorist attacks, according to Kirschner.

"It's been a slow, slow climb, our economy has not been strong here for quite some time," he said.

The credit crunch, the slumping stock market, an erosion of consumer confidence and less inclination to spend money suggests the likelihood of a prolonged economic downturn, Kirschner noted, and those factors will impact commerce and employment.

"It's pretty much across the board, which is actually a scary thing," he said. "I'd feel better about it if it was concentrated in one or two sectors; the only possible exceptions are health care and education.

"The longer it goes the more unemployment there will be," Kirschner said.

He said it is likely the downturn will continue well into next year.

"I don't hear may people talking about a turnaround anything sooner than the third quarter next year and probably the fourth quarter." He explained. "I think we're looking at 9-12 months minimum, maybe more. In addition to how long is the other question, we don't know how deep the recession will be."

Employment in New Jersey contracted by 3,900 jobs in September and the state's 5.8 percent unemployment rate in September was slightly lower than the prior month's rate of 5.9 percent; there were 4,061,500, wage earners in New Jersey in September, according to the Department of Labor and Workforce Development's monthly survey of employers.

During the first three quarters of 2008, New Jersey employment has mirrored the national trend, falling by 21,100 jobs - 0.52 percent - a similar percentage-drop to the job loss of 760,000 nationwide -0.55 percent, according to the DLW report.

The majority of the September job loss in New Jersey - 3,700 jobs - was recorded in the private sector while government employment declined by 200 jobs. The largest employment loss was seen in the banking and financial services sector, which fell by 1,900. The majority of the drop was due to cutbacks at firms across the finance and insurance segment, banks, mortgage companies and brokerage securities firms, according to the DLW report.

Another significant loss - 1,800 jobs - was in manufacturing. Other areas recording losses included construction - 800 jobs and information, 600 jobs.

New Jersey Labor Commissioner David J. Socolow said, "Today's employment report underscores that New Jersey's employment situation, like the nation's, continues to be negatively impacted by weakness in the financial, credit and housing markets."

The only industry sector in New Jersey that saw notable growth in September was education and health services, which increased by 1,000 jobs. Hiring in the health services segment was responsible for the gain in this sector. Smaller gains occurred in professional and business services - 200 jobs - and another 200 jobs in trade, transportation and utilities.

"For Mercer County, the good news is that we are an intellectually-based economy, bio-techs, information services, pharmaceuticals, as opposed to working for General Motors in Michigan," said Joan Verplanck, president of the New Jersey Chamber of Commerce. "We have a little more resilience, we're a little more diversified in Mercer County and that will hold us in good stead, but there will be pain," she warned.

According to Gishlick, the unemployment rate for the Greater Mercer metro area, which encompasses Trenton and Ewing Township, was 5.8 percent in August, as opposed to 3.7 percent the previous August.

"Mercer County has actually if anything flattened out over the last year in many areas," he explained.

In September 2007, there were 237,200 people employed in Mercer County; in September, 2008, that number had decreased to 236,800, according to the DLW.

"The downside for us is the significant part of the economy that is financial," Verplanck said. "There are a lot of Wall Streeters who live in New Jersey and we've been dependent on them and their bonus checks. We have some problems ahead but people are capable of drawing on savings; maybe they're not going to be doing as much as they would normally do until things settle down."

Kirschner says the next year will be tight.

"That's what everyone is saying; people are very uncertain, they're not going to make any big moves in terms of hiring or purchasing new equipment. I think they're going to try and keep the status quo, try to get by with what they have and that will further slow things down," he said.

"That breeds uncertainty which generally means people standing pat."

There are some signs, however, that business will continue as usual, though somewhat restrained, according to Verplanck.

"By and large most of the well-entrenched businesses in Mercer County have long term financial relationships with their banks; if their credit has been strong and they have a credit line that can get them through cycles," Verplanck said. "One of my board members wanted to test that and called his bank. They told him, 'If you want to double it you can,' " she added.

"I think the big concern is that we have a lot of small bio-techs and small tech companies in Mercer County that come in and take off, those are the ones that require so much financial help at the front end of the growth cycle, they need access to capital to keep their momentum. Hopefully that will happen," she said.

Kirschner also suggested that some good will come out of the downturn.

"Maybe long term this will be good for the economy," Kirschner said. "People aren't just going to whip out their credit cards and say 'put it on there,' consumers are sensitive about going into any more debt than they already are.

"This has opened peoples' eyes, they thought easy money would go on forever; in fact, they are adjusting their buying habits; if they can't pay for it they're not going to buy it. It's a whole new world."

© 2008 Mercer County Chamber of Commerce Provided by ProQuest LLC. All Rights Reserved.