Ground-based Weapons.

As seen in the Weapons for Helicopters section, weapons such as the Tow, Hot, Hellfire and Trigat-LR can also be fired from ground vehicles, but infantry weapons are generally lighter far portability.

Lightness is achieved by restricting range. This may at first appear detrimental, but is justified by the fact that a man on the ground can rarely see as far as a helicopter crew.

Milan

As a starting-point in discussing this category, we may take the Euromissile Milan, which weighs just over half as much as that company's Hot, and has half the range, i.e. 2000 metres. The Milan 1 entered service in 1974 with a warhead of 103 mm diameter, giving an armour penetration of 650 mm. It was followed in 1984 by Milan 2 with a 115 mm warhead and an improved filling, giving 880 mm of penetration. In 1991, the Milan 2T added a precursor charge to give the same penetration against a tank protected with ERA. The Milan 3 of 1995 added a coded xenon beacon for improved countermeasures-resistance and the Mills thermal sight, which provides vehicle detection at up to 4000 metres in night operations.

The Milan series has been used in many conflicts, starting with Lebanon in 1976, then 1982 to 1988 Iran-Iraq War, the Falklands in 1982, Desert Storm in 1991 etc. More than a third of a million rounds have been produced, including 76 000 for France, and the licensed manufacture of 100000 in Britain, India and Spain. The Milan is still in service in 44 countries around the world. Hit probability in Desert Storm was 92 per cent. However, in spite of its numerous upgrades, the Milan, with a limited diameter warhead, will not be able to cope with future armour, especially since future ERA requires at least 50 mm diameter precursor charges to defeat them.

Trigan

The missile developed to replace the Milan was to have been the EMDG Trigat-MR (medium range), which employs laser beam-riding for an unjammable day/night adverse-weather capability. Technical features included thrust-vectoring control, a laser proximity fuze and an on-top attack.

It was cleared for service in 1996, but when the British decision to drop out of the programme -- ironically the nation that had the requirement for the largest numbers of firing posts and missiles -- on the last week day of the 2000 Farnborough Air Show, it became clear that the five-nation anti-tank missile programme had breathed its last. Aerospatiale Matra Missiles, however, had a card up its sleeve.

Britain was not entirely responsible for the Trigat's demise. Mr Delay was, showing once more how difficult a multiple-nation programme is to bring to fruition. The catalytic factor came from the Netherlands which, by undertaking endless investigations over other missile types, postponed its signature of the industrialisation and production memorandum of understanding sine die after the other nations minus Belgium (change of government) finally had -- causing impatience among the other nations.

Whilst the Trigat was initially intended to fulfil the requirements of Belgium, Britain, France, Germany and the Netherlands, it was clear that ultimately some of the 44 Milan anti-armour missile customer nations were expected to stretch the Trigat user list. Thus, there was still a strong customer base to capitalise on (some 10000 Milan launch units and 340 000 missiles sold to date).

Within six weeks -- between early August and 15 September 2000 -- Aerospatiale Matra Missiles was able to present a new tangible proposal, which, in a curious twist of events as we shall see, ironed out some of the criticisms made to the Trigat programme, particularly in terms of weight and guidance emissions.

Basically, the idea is to use the fully developed Trigat missile and have it fired by a modified Milan firing post. Modifications to the latter take only 30 minutes to perform and concern the replacement of the launch ramp and the deletion of the electronic guidance unit, which saves five kilos in the process. Another modification could also see the magnification of the sight from 7X to 10X.

The Trigat missile, through numerous tests (including at Dera's in Great Britain), proved that its 150 mm diameter warhead was perfectly able to defeat more than the expected armour with add-on armour. Nevertheless, it still has potential growth, hence its new designations: Trigan I and Trigan II. The Trigat, it must be remembered, was to be a laser beam rider (thus no wire). On the other hand, its distracters had often questioned the emission of laser that could put the operator in danger during the twelve seconds it took the missile to reach its maximum range of 2.5 kilometres. The advantage of the system, however, was that the missile carried its own command electronics, which means that by adding a wire that forwards the deviations of the missile in respect of the firing post's localiser inputs, both the laser transmitter of the original Trigat firing post and the electronic guidance unit of the Milan firing post could be deleted. On the missile, this meant that the expensive laser sensor-cum-cooler could also be deleted and replaced by a repackaged version of the beacon developed for the Milan 3. A reconfigured rocket motor nozzles at the rear to diminish the body diameter and accommodate the guidance wire complete the modification.

The end result is the Trigan I, a missile system the 50 percent industrialisation and manufacturing cost cuts of which should enable it to fit in exactly the same financial budget as the Trigat if it were to be built by France alone for entry into service in 2004. Depending on development speed, the wire could be an optical fibre that conveys much more information than copper in a diameter reduced by half.

Like the Trigat, the Trigan retains its confined space launch capability thanks to its very low launch speed (hence launch rail incident angle increased from about one degree to seven) and lateral forced guidance called Pif by the French. Incidentally, at 16 metres per second, the Trigan is believed to have the lowest soft-launch speed in its category of weapon.

The Trigan II aims at an entry into service in 2010 or 2015. Envisaged options include a molybdenum-lined warhead with a larger precursor charge (around 80 mm instead of 55) able to defeat expected third-generation armour (typically as would be found on a further upgraded T-80U) and a optical fibre relaying data from a nose-mounted imaging infrared sensor for positive identification of targets at much longer ranges (indeed, the need for launcher-mounted sights able to identify a target at ranges of more than 3.5 kilometres can be questioned as there are very few places around the world that provide such a clear straight line vision from man's height). On the other hand, ranges of 5000 metres for vehicle-mounted applications could be afforded by new propellants and a stretched motor combined with a thinner and therefore longer optical fibre compared to a copper wire.

All other Milan operators could benefit from the programme as the cost of the launcher unit is really minimal.

Bill

Other weapons in the 2000-metre class include the Bofors Bill. A fly-over top-attack weapon with optical (laser-ranging) and magnetic sensors, the Bill is simplicity itself to use: the gunner keeps the target centred in the reticle, but the missile, which is wire-guided, automatically flies at a height of about a metre above the line of sight. When the missile senses an object resembling a tank, it fires a downwards-canted warhead.

The newer Bill 2, which has recently been put into production, operates along the same lines, but has two downward-firing shaped charge warheads, the front one of which is toed-in to produce a common impact point with the larger rear one. The forward charge of 80 mm diameter (taken from the Bofors AT4 lightweight anti-tank weapon) detonates the ERA and produces a small hole in the top armour, facilitating penetration by the main 115 mm charge. The Bill 2 can also be fired in an overfly mode against soft targets, using only its optical sensor, and in a direct attack using an impact fuze. The sensor has been further refined so as to detonate the charges when the missile overflies the turret. A live demonstration witnessed by one of the authors simply proved what was claimed.

Javelin

A much lighter 2000-metre missile is the Javelin, a joint project by Lockheed Martin and Raytheon. Designed to replace the wire-guided Dragon, the Javelin is now in production for the US Army and Marine Corps. A fire-and-forget weapon, its imaging infrared seeker is locked on to the target before launch and it is fired at an elevated angle to attack the top armour of the tank with tandem warheads -- which it has to do because of its smaller diameter warhead.

Gill, Spike

In a head-on competition with the Javelin in the fire-and-forget category is the lock-before-launch Gill from Rafael. Guidance for the 13 kg (including storage/launch canister) Gill is provided by an auto-tracker, and its quoted range is 2.5 kin. The gunner acquires the target through an optical or thermal imaging sight and fires the missile, which is launched at an elevated angle to provide a top attack.

The Spike is identical to the Gill but the switchable daylight TV charge coupled device camera/3-5 micron imaging infrared sensor relays target imagery to the operator via an optical fibre wire which also facilitates damage assessment. This system is in service with the armed forces of Israel and Singapore, where the system is also produced under license from Rafael. This form of guidance also allows maximum range to be increased from 2500 to 4000 metres, due to easier target acquisition. In May, the Finnish Army chose Spike as its medium-range weapon for high-readiness brigades. Ironically, whilst the Gill had been developed to specifically fill a requirement of the Israeli Forces who wanted a fire-and-forget weapon, they eventually selected the optical wire-assisted Spike. Asked by one of the authors why should one "waste" the smart autotracking electronics that are still onboard the Spike, a Rafael official said that the idea of adding an optical cable to the Gill was a private initiative (one may even speculate that this derived from the need, at early development stage, to check out what the missile was doing or seeing in flight, particularly in the final dive under difficult conditions) and that the Israeli Forces finally realised what benefits could be drawn both in terms of safety and range, as the optical fibre enables the operator to see as far as the motor is able to take the missile (hence the longer range of 4000 metres). Rafael also indicated that Israel wanted to keep a high commonality between the two variants.

Metis, Konkurs, Kornet

The only Russian missile in a similar range-class appears to be the wire-guided KBP 9M131 Metis-M (or AT-13). The design aim was to reduce cost by eliminating expensive components such as gyros and on-board power sources. The 9M131 is nonetheless claimed to have a hit probability of 90 per cent at 1500 metres. This range represents a 50 per cent increase over the original 9M115 Metis (Mongrel).

Russia has developed a surprisingly large number of different weapons for both vehicle and infantry applications. Some have been in service for many years. The wire-guided, KBP 9M113M Konkurs-M or AT-5 Spandrel is still being marketed. The munition has a similar weight to Milan, but with twice the range, at 4000 metres. It is manufactured by the Tulsky Oruzheiny Zavod, in KBP's home town of Tula.

The missile that KBP regards as its third-generation competitor to the Trigat-MR is the relatively new, laser beam-riding 9K129 Kornet-E, developed to replace KBP's own 9K111M Fagot or AT-4 Spigot and 9K113 Konkurs.

The Kornet-E weighs almost as much as the Hot and has a daylight range of 5500 metres. Night-time range is restricted to a nominal 3500 metres by the quality of the thermal imager on the launch unit. KBP feels that improving night performance to match that available in daytime would require an imager similar to the French Sat CN-type, costing three times as much.

KBP regards infrared homing as susceptible to countermeasures and incapable of dealing with a wide variety of targets. It is also felt that saclos guidance is effectively limited to 4000 metres. Like the third-generation, short-range Metis, Kornet is available with two types of warhead: tandem shaped charges or a general purpose incendiary round.

The latest KBM product in this category appears to be the 9M123 Khrizantema (Chrysanthemum) or AT-15, a millimetre-wave beam-rider with a range of 6000 metres by day and night. The missile can alternatively employ semi-automatic laser beam-riding, which allows a second target to be engaged while the radar is locked on to the first target. The 9M123 is designed to be used on a pedestal mounting on the BMP-3 chassis, with an automatic reloading system. The vehicle can house 15 ready-to-fire rounds.

Red Arrow

The idea of a weapon that can use either of two guidance systems is certainly innovative. China's Norinco Red Arrow 9 does not go that far, but it is available in two forms: the millimetre-wave saclos-guided 9A, and the laser beam-riding 9B. The Red Arrow 9 made its public debut at a military parade in Beijing in late 1999 conspicously mounted on a Norinco 4 x 4 armoured personnel carrier. At 37 kilograms including launch-tube, the Red Arrow 9 is one of the heaviest weapons in its class. It has a maximum range of 5000 metres

RELATED ARTICLE: Market Trends

The primary drivers in the development of anti-tank missiles are twofold: the threat, and the technology to be employed to counter the threat. The development of anti-tank systems is based on defeating a specific generation of tanks, whether they are in production or under development. Once the threat has been specified, the development program turns toward the technology which will be used to defeat it.

Among the major world powers, the technology trend is toward the fielding of a wider number of fire-and-forget weapons, although the development of tethered guided systems is also continuing. Generally, the anti-tank missile market is separating between high- and moderate-to-low technology segments. The high technology systems, primarily being developed by European and North American firms, are exemplified by their advanced fire-and-forget guidance units.

As the new century begins, the major Western powers will have deployed a significant number of these new anti-tank systems. However, large numbers of less capable tethered missiles will also continue to serve and remain in production throughout the world.

Over the next ten years, various European military forces are expected to retire older weapons as their military forces shrink. At the same time, they will maintain combat capabilities through the introduction of the most advanced systems available.

The anti-tank missile market is expected to continue to be dominated by a small number of firms located in North America and Europe. These nations have the funding and requirements to support expensive missile development/ acquisition programmes [but] the market has become less competitive due to the presence of fewer competitors [due to mergers]. Yet, the effect appears to have been mostly on domestic markets of the given defence industries.

Overseas, competition is more heated than ever. Although the major players will remain dominant, competition from new non-traditional entrants (South Africa, India, Taiwan, etc.) could develop slowly and gain strength as the 21st century progresses. A main avenue of entry for these new competitors seems to be the licensed production of the dominant players' hardware, via direct offset agreements.

(Nota Bene: this market analysis, part of "The Market for Anti-Tank Missiles Through 2009" survey, has been reproduced with kind permission of Forecast International/DMS Inc. -- www.forecast1.com).