Greenspan's candor.

Byline: The Register-Guard

Alan Greenspan, who during his 20 years as the nation's central banker could roil the financial markets by raising an eyebrow, has exchanged oracular ambiguity for bracing frankness with the publication of his memoir, "The Age of Turbulence." In it he offers candid assessments of George W. Bush's fiscal policies, China's future and the nature of the Iraq war: "I am saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil."

That doesn't mean Greenspan will be slapping a "No blood for oil" sticker on the bumper of his limo. The former Federal Reserve chairman also writes that he advised the White House in 2003 that toppling Saddam Hussein was an "essential" step toward preventing disruption of the world's oil supplies. Greenspan believed the Iraqi dictator was bent upon gaining control of the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which Persian Gulf oil flows.

It has been "politically inconvenient" to acknowledge the importance of Iraq's oil reserves because the Bush administration has based its case for war on other justifications: the threat of weapons of mass destruction; the opportunity to replace a dictatorship with a model for democracy in the Middle East; Iraq's post-invasion emergence as a haven for terrorists and, now, the obligation to avoid the chaos that might follow an American withdrawal.

The inconvenience has been compounded by the fact that prominent mention of Iraq's oil in connection to the war would open the door for critics to question the motives of an administration with close personal and political ties to the oil industry.

Yet "everyone knows" that Iraq's strategic importance floats on a sea of oil. Iraq's petroleum reserves total an estimated 115 billion barrels, about 12 percent of the world's total. Only Saudi Arabia has more. Saddam Hussein demonstrated his ambition to enlarge the pool of oil under his control by invading Kuwait, with reserves of nearly 100 billion barrels, in 1990. Everyone knows that the world economy depends on oil imported from the Middle East, and that Iraq is at the region's heart.

So Greenspan concludes that the war in Iraq "largely about oil," and he's right. The first Bush administration would not have repelled the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1991, and the second Bush administration would not have invaded Iraq in 2003, if oil weren't at stake. Other than oil, the United States has few strategic interests in Iraq or the Persian Gulf region. Saddam's regime was financed by oil wealth, as was his ability to threaten Iraq's neighbors. Control over Iraq's oil resources remains a key issue for global energy companies, for oil importing nations and for Iraqis themselves.

The war in Iraq is largely about oil - but no one should be startled by that claim. Everything in Iraq is largely about oil. Indeed, everybody knows, though it's politically inconvenient to say, that this key resource is at the root of much of what happens militarily, politically and economically around the world.