Greatest show on earth.

Some days I feel like a member of the Ringling Brothers Circus. While my critics would say it is because I am a clown, I say it is due to the regular "barnstorming" city-to-city tours I take to visit North American metalcasters and suppliers.

A recent tour through Detroit and Cleveland provided me the platform to showcase our forecast for casting supply and demand from 2004-2013. I use the term showcase for this forecast because the news is good.

As you can see from the cover of this issue and the feature article on p. 27, we are forecasting a 5.1% increase in total casting shipments for 2004 with a cumulative 18% increase in casting demand though 2009. The level of casting demand in 2009 is expected to be at a 25-year high in total tonnage. With shipment increases expected across almost all cast metals next year (some forecast to see year after year increases through 2009), skeptical optimism is, at minimum, what our industry should be expressing at the prospects for our future.

For those of you who follow' economic data and forecasts closely, this news should come as no shock. The economy is picking up and greater numbers of manufactured goods are required. Many of these manufactured goods require cast metal components as part of their make-up. When asked why such high growth is forecast through 2009, my response is to refer to the following quote:

"One fundamental that drives the economy in a predictable manner is consumption. Baby boomers are entering their peak earning and spending years from 2004-2009."

While I can't argue with that statement, others try to.

One comment that invariably arises during forecast discussions is the portion import castings are going to take from this overall casting demand and shipment pie.

Our forecast has foreign metalcasters meeting 18% of the casting tonnage demand (15% of the sales dollars) in 2004 on their way lip to 20% in 2013. This import figure includes all imported castings, including those from Europe, South America and Asia, that are meeting the demand of U.S. casting buyers.

While I am all too familiar with the level of devastation imports have caused our industry (having sat across the table from metalcasters losing their life's work to the practices of unfair foreign competition), my response to you is that these import figures must not be the insurmountable death blow to our industry. When the economy fully rebounds, we must leave those shipment totals behind us and in the back of our mind.

Currently, with profit margins as low as they are, a loss of 18% of tonnage to imports can amount to financial ruin for a metalcaster because of the share of the overall sales revenue it represents. However, as overall casting demand from our facilities increases, this percentage of sales decreases and provides some relief.

While this theory negates the continued downward price pressures being exerted by our strongest foreign competition to eat away at our profit margins, the reality is that individual foundries will have a hard time instituting any changes to help this situation anyway. We must trust those in the industry that can affect the situation--the American Foundry Society Trade Commission, our lobbying groups in Washington, D.C., and the state and national metalcasting associations--and let them worry about the value of the dollar, the value of our foreign competition's currency, tariffs, duties, and Section 332 and 421 studies. Those groups will alert us when they need our help to push the cause on Capitol Hill. When they call, we must be ready to help, but until then we must focus our efforts in our metalcasting facilities and on our technology and production efficiencies.

It seems as if every year this editorial page espouses the importance of reinvesting in our facilities in good times and bad. In addition, we run numerous foundry profile features, such as this issue's piece on Wisconsin Aluminum, "WAFCO: Reinvesting to Compete," p. 22, that detail the success of foundries that have followed this philosophy. Hopefully, this year is the time everyone decides to embrace this philosophy.

It has been at least three to four years since many of our operations have stepped to the plate and truly reinvested in ourselves, with the forecast on the rise and greener pastures ahead, take a cue from the Ringling Brothers Circus and make your metalcasting facility the "Greatest Show on Earth."