Grandmaster Powell: before September 11, he seemed all but invisible, losing policy disputes to others in the Bush administration. What a difference a war makes. (National).

WITHIN THE HEAVILY FORTIFIED RESIDENCE OF the American ambassador in Islamabad, Secretary of State Colin Powell found himself dining last fall with his improbable new best friend, General Pervez Musharraf, the President of Pakistan.

Only months earlier, the Bush administration would have labeled Pakistan a terrorist-cradling rogue nation. But war changes everything, and Powell was now cementing relations with Musharraf, our partner in the war against the terrorists in neighboring Afghanistan.

As they dined, cell phones trilled--first in the pocket of Pakistan's head of intelligence, then in that of the CIA's station chief--with news that India was firing artillery in the disputed border province of Kashmir. India, which has fought three all-out wars with Pakistan in the last 50 years, was feeling jilted by the attention Powell was giving Musharraf. "It's a way of saying, `What about us?'" said one member of the Islamabad dinner party.

RETURN TO RELEVANCE

Such is the volatile new world of American foreign policy over which Colin Powell presides. And for now at least, he does preside--his comforting charisma, his ally-charming skills, and his experience of war all placed at a premium by the terror attacks of September 11.

Before the attacks, the conventional wisdom about Powell was reflected in an end-of-summer Time magazine cover that asked, "Where Have You Gone, Colin Powell?" The new Secretary of State had become all but invisible, which is a serious liability in the corridors of Washington power. He had suffered several minor humiliations in which various Bush administration figures won policy disputes involving North Korea, global warming, and other issues.

But that's all changed now. The campaign against terror has created the kind of crisis-management world in which Powell thrives. And while Powell has his critics--many within the Bush administration and outside it believe that his view is naive or amoral in a dangerous world--at the moment he has one very important person in his corner: George W. Bush.

After September 11, Powell went to work quickly. By September 14, when he helicoptered to Camp David for dinner with Vice President Richard Cheney, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, he had already won Musharraf's agreement that Pakistan would cooperate with the U.S. war effort in Afghanistan. At Camp David he argued for a careful, methodical response.

PULLING BACK ON "SMACKING" IRAQ

"There is always the pressure to go back and smack somebody right away," Powell told me later. But, he went on to say, the question was "who that somebody was, one; and how to do it so that you were hitting that someone, or some group, and not just hitting for the sake of hitting."

At Camp David meetings the next morning, the Bush foreign-policy team debated whether the U.S. should focus on Al Qaeda, the terrorist network constructed by Osama bin Laden, or move against other groups and nations that support terrorism. Many inside and outside the administration were calling for an attack against Iraq and its leader, Saddam Hussein, whom the U.S. had driven from neighboring Kuwait in a 1991 war.

Powell pointed out that there was no evidence connecting Iraq to the September 11 attacks. Others said that was irrelevant, that the administration came to power promising to do more to topple Saddam from power. Powell warned that the international coalition against terrorism would not hold together if the United States targeted Iraq.

The next day at the White House, Bush called in Rice and said that he had made up his mind. Iraq was left for the future.

"Iraq isn't going anywhere," Powell told me a few days later. "It's in a fairly weakened state. It's doing some things we don't like. We'll continue to contain it. But there really was no need at this point, unless there was really quite a smoking gun, to put Iraq at the top of the list."

INFIGHTING IN THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH

Powell won the battle over Iraq policy for now, but he has not silenced his critics. While the division has been temporarily bridged, it is a real fault line that runs through the administration, and it could open again.

On one side are neoconservatives who flowered in President Reagan's first term. Suspicious of treaties and alliances, unsentimental about missions of humanitarian aid, though strongly supportive of beleaguered democracies like Israel and Taiwan, this group includes Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Rice.

The second group reflects a more traditional Republican foreign policy--comfortable with alliances and treaties, less assertive, more realistic. Powell is the standard-bearer for this camp, which includes many in the State Department, outside foreign-policy experts, and notably, the President's father, former President George Bush.

Powell himself has not spent all those years in the executive branch without becoming adept at close bureaucratic combat. His infighting style is patient and discreet. He gives his interviews on the record so he cannot be accused of bad-mouthing rivals, except implicitly. (At one point, he firmly denied jostling for influence with Rice, then added that he regarded the National Security Adviser "like a daughter," which left no doubt about who was the alpha dog.)

THE POWER OF POWELL

Those who have worked with him say that Powell is usually the best-prepared person in any meeting and has anticipated the arguments several steps out.

"He's a smart linear thinker with iron self-control, tremendous pride and self-confidence, great leadership skills, great presentational skills, limited analytical skills, and a commanding presence," says a diplomat who has sparred with Powell. "It's an amazing package."

Plus, there is the aura: The decorated warrior. The intimate of, now, four Presidents. The man many felt could become the first African-American President. His story of accomplishment is the subject of more than 20 books, including his own best-selling memoir. None of this is likely to awe men of comparable experience, like Cheney and Rumsfeld, but it cannot fail to impress a President with none of those credentials.

Powell has managed a schedule of accelerated diplomacy since September 11 to assemble a war coalition, which is a little like playing chess on 20 boards at once against challengers with wildly differing opening gambits. Since the attacks, he has met with Russia's Foreign Minister, Igor Ivanov, 13 times. That's a tiny fraction of the meetings and phone conversations he has had with dozens of other world leaders.

Powell's increasing influence has, of course, only elevated the alarm of hawks, who see him as too moderate. Powell is by and large a centrist who supports affirmative action and abortion rights.

"A GOOD SOLDIER"

His old mentor, former Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger, sums up Powell this way: "Colin is quintessentially a good soldier. He does his duty and carries out orders."

From his service in Vietnam, Powell brought home two wounds, a chest full of decorations, and a determination to use force only to achieve definite ends--and with enough power to guarantee victory. That set of guidelines has become known as the "Powell Doctrine."

But the unconventional war against terrorism seems tailor-made to undercut Powell's demand for clear objectives and decisive commitments. And with each new event in Afghanistan, things seem to get more, not less, complicated.

That means that even with the Afghanistan campaign completed, Powell will have his hands full with postwar Afghanistan, the Middle East, and other trouble spots.

And the minute the Afghan phase of the war on terror seems near an end, the Secretary of State may again have his hands full maintaining that other troublesome coalition, the Bush administration.

TEACHING OBJECTIVES

To help students understand how Secretary of State Colin Powell emerged from the shadows of the Bush administration to assume the leadership of the anti-terrorism coalition.

Discussion Questions:

* Why do you think writer Bill Keller says the war against terrorism seems tailor-made to undercut Powell's demand for clear objectives and decisive commitments?

* Do you think Powell is right to hold back on attacking Iraq's Saddam Hussein?

* How would you describe yourself--as a "hawk," "dove," or a Powell-style centrist?

CLASSROOM STRATEGIES

Debate/Discussion: This article offers a unique opportunity to help students understand how government really works. Direct students to page 16, where writer Bill Keller describes the split between those in the Bush administration who are suspicious of treaties and alliances with other countries and those, like Colin Powell, who support such agreements.

Have students debate the merits of each side, or open the class to discussion. Ask students to identify the merits of the U.S. going it alone in its relations with the rest of the world and the merits of joining with other nations in treaties and alliances. (Going it alone frees the U.S. from constraints imposed by such agreements. But working within the bounds of treaties and alliances conveys the image of the U.S. as cooperative and helps rebut the argument of those who say the U.S. is a bully.)

Next, ask students to consider how Powell's middle-of-the-road style helped him assemble the war coalition against terrorism. Note the analogy on page 17, which compares assembling the war coalition to playing chess on 20 boards at the same time. Is this a valid analogy?

Why might it be difficult to assemble a coalition against terrorism even when terrorism threatens so many countries--including Russia? (See article on terrorism in Russia, Upfront, November 26, page 15.) Explain that countries have different priorities. In Pakistan, for example, there was significant, vocal opposition to a war against fellow Muslims in Afghanistan.

RISING Star

KEY YEARS IN THE LIFE OF COLIN LUTHER POWELL 

* April 5, 1937: Born in New York City and reared in the South Bronx, the son of Jamaican immigrants.

* 1954: Powell graduates from high school and heads to college (he majors in geology).

* 1969: Powell ends a second tour of duty in Vietnam, after being wounded twice and decorated for heroism.

* 1989: After commanding troops and holding key posts in Washington, Powell--now a four-star Army general--is named chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in charge of the entire U.S. military, by President George Bush.

* 1991: Powell oversees the Persian Gulf War, in which U.S.-led forces free Kuwait from Iraqi invaders.

* 1993: Powell retires and starts America's Promise, an organization dedicated to helping children.

* 2001: Powell becomes the first black American to serve as U.S. Secretary of State, appointed by President George W. Bush.

BILL KELLER is a columnist for the The New York Times and a senior writer for the Times Magazine.