Governor orders tougher vehicle emissions curbs.

Byline: Diane Dietz The Register-Guard

Gov. Ted Kulongoski brought the nebulous topic of global warming in for a hard landing on Monday when he ordered the state to adopt California's tough auto emissions standards.

Now's the time to confront the twin challenges presented by "global warming and the end of the oil era," the governor said in a Portland speech.

`Recognizing that the science around global warming is now clear, I am committed to combating this problem to save our quality of life for our children and grandchildren,' he said.

The governor's action comes amid mounting concerns about global climate change that's expected to make Oregon hotter and drier in coming decades.

Scientists have measured a 1 to 3 degree temperature change in the Pacific Northwest over the past 100 years. And they're predicting increases of 1 to 5 degrees over the next 15 years.

For Oregon, that means water shortages, longer wildfire seasons and intense allergy seasons, they suggest.

The rise in temperatures is attributed to the rise of industrial and agricultural practices that speed the build-up of gasses in the atmosphere.

The gasses - carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide - blanket the Earth and trap heat, causing warming at the surface.

Kulongoski means to help pressure the U.S. automotive industry to produce cleaner cars, including wagons, SUVS and pickup trucks.

Cars are in the cross hairs because collectively they are one of the largest sources of carbon dioxide on the planet.

"And they are a source we can moderate, said professor Sherman Bloomer, dean of the College of Science at Oregon State University.

California's rules require new cars to emit 30 percent less carbon dioxide, 20 percent fewer toxic pollutants and up to 20 percent fewer smog-causing pollutants than the established federal standards.

Kulongoski means for them to take effect in Oregon for the 2009 model year. And he appointed a task force to work out the details.

He assigned a second task force to scrutinize the utility sector for ways to also reduce carbon emissions.

The governor acknowledged that not everyone agrees with his assessment of the problem, and he singled out the Bush administration and big oil interests as two chief opponents.

But he also has to overrule Oregon lawmakers to advance his plan.

In the just-completed session, they attached a clause to a budget bill that prohibited the state from adopting or enforcing California's stricter standards.

The governor said on Monday he'd veto the clause.

Still, the issue is far from settled. Automakers are challenging the California standards in court - and the outcome will likely affect Oregon's ability to regulate auto emissions.

But Kulongoski's decision was significant as a first act after years of academic debate about whether global warming was, in fact, occurring, supporters say. And he's bolstered by a gathering consensus.

"There are doubters, just as there are doubters about evolution. The first question you have to ask is are those doubters scientifically credible?" said Ron Mitchell, a UO assistant professor who served on the governor's global warming task force.

"In general, the vast consensus - the view of most credible scientists - is that climate change is happening and humans are contributing to it," he said.

Science is based on probabilities and likelihoods and not certainty. It asks the question and makes observations to get the answers.

"We may get new information in the future that says it's not a problem, but that seems unlikely to me. And it seems worth the cost to avoid those risks," Mitchell said.

"We can't be 100 percent positive, but we're sure enough that it makes sense to have an insurance policy. What Kulongoski is doing is beginning the process of developing an insurance policy," he said.

Kulongoski's decision also locks the three West Coast states into a joint strategy.

Washington state earlier adopted the California standards contingent on Oregon's participation.

Kulongoski leaves himself open to criticism in his own state, where many lawmakers prefer that the free market set vehicle standards and where a good share of the population drives the heavy, carbon-producing SUVs.

"He simply demonstrates strength of character by continuing to pursue what may be untimely and unpopular initiatives," said Randy Berggren, general manager of the Eugene Water & Electric Board, who also served on the governor's task force.

"On the other hand, it's an act that demonstrates commitment to the citizens of Oregon and their future," Berggren said.

"We're going to have to step up to some of those less popular issues, like looking for new and creative ways to get better mileage and lower emissions out of transportation systems," he said.

"Even more powerful: Look for transportation systems that don't have everybody driving one person a car for thousands of miles every year," he said.

"It's going to challenge our lifestyle, but then so will global warming challenge - if not our generation - our future generations' lifestyle."

READ ALL ABOUT IT

Here are Web sites where you can read Gov. Ted Kulongoski's plan to reduce greenhouse gases, the California clean car rules and scientific views on global warming:

Clean car rules: www.deq.state.or.us/aq/aqplanning/CalLev/index.htm

Oregon Strategy for Greenhouse Gas Reductions: egov.oregon.gov/ENERGY/GBLWRM/Strategy.shtml

Scientific Consensus Statement on the Likely Impacts of Climate Change on the Pacific Northwest: inr.oregonstate.edu/download/ climate_change_consensus_statement_final.pdf

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Global Warming Site: www.epa.gov/globalwarming/index.html

National Climate Data Center: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ol/climate/globalwarming.html

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: www.ipcc.ch/

U.S. Global Change Research Program: www.usgcrp.gov/

Implementing Climate and Global Change Research, a review of the final U.S. Climate Change Research Program Strategic Plan: books.nap.edu/catalog/10635.html

Implementing Climate and Global Change Research: www.co2science.org/scripts/Template/ MainPage.jsp?MerchantCode=CO2ScienceB2C&Page=Index

Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change: www.co2science.org/

UO Department of Geography Environmental Change Research Group: geography.uoregon.edu/envchange/