Governor's backing of measures, candidates puts his clout to test.

His name will not appear on the ballot, but Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger could be a potent factor in the Nov. 2 election.

The movie-hero governor has thrown his considerable clout at a number of ballot measures and legislative races, attempting to repeat his success in turning around a falling $15 billion bond initiative in March.

Schwarzenegger, the most popular governor since Ronald Reagan, has already forced backers of Proposition 68, the measure to expand slot machines to card clubs and racetracks, to fold their campaign.

And the mere threat that he would launch his own initiative forced a workers' compensation reform package through the Legislature.

"When he takes his considerable ability and political support and applies it to a campaign, he makes a big difference," said Darry Sragow, a Democratic political strategist.

Even so, some cracks are beginning to emerge in the governor's image. Schwarzenegger has gotten caught up in some highly partisan political battles in Sacramento, and in recent months, his support among Democrats has slipped below 50 percent.

As a result, he will have a tougher time convincing Democratic voters to cross over and vote for the Republican legislative candidates in head-to-head races. "You're not seeing huge numbers of Democrats defecting to the Republican Party," Sragow said. "So his ability to affect these races will be quite limited, unless you've got a razor-thin margin."

Schwarzenegger lost crossover support from Democrats beginning with budget negotiations this summer.

At first, Schwarzenegger promised to work with Democrats in the Legislature to pass a budget on time. But Democratic leaders--especially Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez--resisted many of the cuts in the Schwarzenegger budget. They urged students and others impacted by the cuts to come to Sacramento to protest.

Instead of agreeing to a compromise, Schwarzenegger tried to stick by his budget proposal. He took to the road, holding rallies in districts with Democratic incumbents regarded as vulnerable in the November elections. At one such rally at a shopping center in Assemblywoman Gloria Negrette McCloud's district in Ontario, Schwarzenegger called Democratic legislators who resisted his proposals "girlie men ... They should get back to the table and they should finish the budget."

That remark instantly made the rounds of the late night talk shows; it also angered many Democrats. From that time on, Schwarzenegger's approval ratings among Democrats fell below 50 percent.

Priority races

At the top of the governor's list of election priorities is an all-out campaign against gambling-expansion propositions 68 and 70 and rallies for Proposition IA, the codification of his agreement not to raid local coffers in the future.

Schwarzenegger might also campaign against Proposition 66, which would roll back some of the provisions of the 1994 "three strikes" law, according to Rob Stutzman, spokesman for the governor's California Recovery Team, a political action committee that has raised $15 million in this election cycle.

Schwarzenegger has taken positions on nine other ballot measures, although he has not actively campaigned on any of them. He has endorsed Proposition 64, a controversial measure that would limit the filing of "unfair business competition" lawsuits, and he opposes Proposition 72, the employer health-care mandate.

"To the extent he's opposing initiatives, he'll probably succeed in those, since it's almost always easier to defeat initiatives than to campaign for them," said Elizabeth Garrett, professor of law at the USC School of Law. "What will be more interesting to see is whether his endorsements of initiatives will make a difference."

The latest poll numbers show that Schwarzenegger has his work cut out for him on Proposition 64, the tort reform measure, which is trailing badly in the polls with 26 percent support.

He has also made campaign appearances on behalf of several Republican legislative candidates. Four of them are incumbent Assembly members: Guy Houston of Livermore, Abel Maldonado of San Luis Obispo, Shirley Horton of San Diego and Bonnie Garcia of El Centro.

Schwarzenegger has also campaigned on behalf of incumbent state Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks and for Gary Podesto, who is challenging Stockton Democrat incumbent Sen. Mike Machado.

(During summer budget negotiations, Schwarzenegger appeared in Long Beach with Republican Steve Kuykendall, who is challenging termed-out state Sen. Betty Karnette for a hotly contested open Assembly seat.)

In most of these races, Schwarzenegger is backing Republicans who, like himself, are social moderates and fiscal conservatives, according to Republican political consultant Allan Hoffenblum.

But Schwarzenegger has not made appearances on behalf of some Republican challengers in close races, including Greg Hill, the Redondo Beach mayor who is battling Democrat Mike Gordon, former mayor of El Segundo, for an open Assembly seat in the South Bay.

"Schwarzenegger is being very selective and protective of his resources," said Tim Hodson, executive director of the Center for California Studies at California State University Sacramento.

This could also be an acknowledgement Schwarzenegger's coattails may not be as extensive in legislative races.

One campaign appearance he did make on behalf of a challenger--Bakersfield Republican businessman Dean Gardner--appears to have backfired. Since the Schwarzenegger appearance, allegations surfaced that Gardner, who is running against incumbent state Assemblywoman Nicole Parra, had used seven different aliases and filed for personal bankruptcy six times in the last 25 years.

"It's a high-risk business," Hoffenblum said. "Yes, his clout is enhanced every time a candidate or measure he pushes wins. But there's also a downside. If he shows he can be beaten or backs the wrong horse, his clout in the future goes down."