Gov. Democrat: the gubernatorial races are looking bad for the repubs.

REPUBLICANS are playing defense on both the federal and the state levels this election season. Along with the Senate and House, they also hold a majority of governorships. While the fate of the GOP's congressional majorities may be in doubt, it's a sure bet that Republicans will lose their 28-22 gubernatorial majority in November.

The Republicans are up against some bad math this year. Democrats hold only 14 of the 36 governorships on November ballots, and Republicans hold nine of the ten without an incumbent seeking reelection. Noting that "the math is terrible for us," Gov. Mitt Romney, chairman of the Republican Governors Association, would regard a net loss of four Republican governorships as "a dream come true." As head of the Republicans' campaign arm, Romney has set a record for fundraising, with $20 million in campaign cash this year compared with $14 million raised on behalf of Democratic candidates. But this year Republicans face an electoral map that money can't alter.

Romney's own blue state is expected to revert to a blue governor when former Clinton Justice Department official Deval Patrick beats Massachusetts lieutenant governor Kerry Healey. In New York, attorney general Eliot Spitzer leads his Republican opponent by 50 points. Neither race appears to be a referendum on the incumbent. Mitt Romney and George Pataki governed differently--the first as a conservative, the second as a liberal--but the vacancies in these overwhelmingly Democratic states provide the opportunity for Democrats to claim the top job.

There is no vacancy in the solidly blue state of Maryland, but incumbent Bob Ehrlich, who beat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend four years ago, trails in the polls against Baltimore mayor Martin O'Malley. Ehrlich has repeatedly had his sensible vetoes overridden by a hostile Democratic legislature, and has recently wondered aloud about whether he is a "historical accident" in a state that Gore and Kerry comfortably carried.

In red states with open GOP governorships, things also look blue. Democratic candidates in Arkansas, Ohio, and Colorado all enjoy double-digit leads. In Arkansas, attorney general Mike Beebe is favored to win over former congressman and Bush Homeland Security official Asa Hutchinson. Conservative critics rightly fault the term-limited Gov. Mike Huckabee for damaging the Republican brand by supporting the largest tax increase in Arkansas history. But at the state level the parties' brand labels typically don't represent the stark policy differences of Nancy Pelosi and George W. Bush.

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Since 1994, Democrats have been winning governorships in the South, where Democratic congressional and presidential candidates fare poorly. Democrats who have won gubernatorial contests in Virginia, North Carolina, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Oklahoma have set their own agendas on local issues. They don't face charges of being weak on national security or backing amnesty for illegal immigrants. John Hood--president of the John Locke Foundation, a conservative think tank in North Carolina--points out that southern Democratic governors are often indistinguishable from moderately conservative Republicans. The GOP had trouble finding a candidate to run against Tennessee governor Phil Bredesen, who holds the only statewide office not in Republican hands. The moderate Bredesen, in a state Bush carried with 57 percent of the vote in 2004, leads his Republican challenger by a margin of nearly three to one. In Oklahoma, Democratic governor Brad Henry has cut spending and taxes and backed a ban on adoption by same-sex couples. He has allowed local law enforcement to enforce federal immigration laws and leads his Republican challenger, Rep. Ernest Istook, by over 20 points.

If Democratic fortunes improve when their candidates behave like Republicans, critics point to trouble for Republicans where their candidates behave like Democrats. In Pennsylvania, Gov. Ed Rendell has a 20-point lead over Lynn Swann; Matthew Brouillette, president of the conservative Commonwealth Foundation in Harrisburg, faults not Swann but the local GOP. "The big problem is that Republicans have been the problem here in Pennsylvania," he argues. Brouillette explains that under former governor Tom Ridge and a Republican legislature government grew at a faster rate than under the late governor Bob Casey Sr., and that there is a deficit in "champions of conservative policy positions." He insists it doesn't have to be that way, even in a "purple" state that Bush failed to carry in 2000 and 2004: "We're more Arlen Specter than Pat Toomey to be sure, but you can still sell the message."

In Ohio, policy sellouts and scandals have turned a red state blue this year. Republican Bob Taft, who raised taxes and pled no contest to corruption charges, is the least popular governor in the country. Arecent poll found that 80 percent of likely voters give low marks to the state's economy and favor Democrats by 20 points on the issues of job creation, education, and corruption in government. In the race for this open GOP seat, secretary of state Ken Blackwell, a talented conservative campaigner, trails Democratic congressman Ted Strickland by 15 points.

Heading west, Republican prospects don't improve. Since 2002, Democrats have won governorships in Wyoming, New Mexico, Arizona, and Montana. With the exception of New Mexico, which Bush narrowly carried in 2004 (and where he basically tied in 2000), all of these states have been comfortably red in the past two presidential contests. As in the South, Democratic governors out west typically favor low taxes, the death penalty, and gun rights. In New Mexico, Gov. Bill Richardson cut the state income and capital-gains taxes; in Arizona, Gov. Janet Napolitano avoided tax increases and has backed medical-malpractice reform. None of these Democratic governors faces a serious reelection threat; if Republican governor Bill Owens is replaced by a Democrat in Colorado, Democrats will control five of the eight governorships in the Mountain West.

Although Republicans enjoy a voter-registration advantage of 175,000, former Denver district attorney Bill Ritter is expected to beat two-term Republican congressman Bob Beauprez in Colorado's gubernatorial race. A good candidate and smart campaign can overwhelm party-affiliation advantages, and Ritter is credited with having the right political profile and message for this year. He ties his ideologically conservative GOP opponent to the bitter partisanship in Washington, by declaring that "the people of this state want problem-solvers who are pragmatic and who won't allow government to be polarized."

President Bush and national issues don't appear to be having much impact on these state races, except in the case of candidates based in Washington, D.C. In the race to succeed Democratic governor Tom Vilsack in Iowa, eight-term Republican congressman Jim Nussle, who is chairman of the House Budget Committee, is being tied to Washington by his Democratic opponent, secretary of state Chet Culver. At their first debate in early October, Culver asked: "Would you be better off running things here in Iowa like Congressman Nussle and President Bush have been running things in Washington, D.C.?" The candidates are currently tied.

If Republicans lose governorships in Massachusetts, New York, Maryland, Arkansas, Ohio, Colorado, and Minnesota--where Gov. Tim Pawlenty faces a surprisingly tough challenge--there are nonetheless a handful of states where prospects are brighter. Democratic governors in Wisconsin, Oregon, and Michigan are in virtual ties with their Republican challengers, and Governor Romney thinks that Illinois, where the former Republican governor is heading to jail and Democratic governor Rod Blagojevich faces corruption charges, could "surprise everyone."

Unfortunately, the bigger surprise would be if Republicans held a majority of the governorships after this election.