Googling newsprint.

Conventional wisdom is that printed newspaper demand, primarily in North America, is decreasing approximately 1% per year. Pundits wiser than me called this a "generational difference," i.e., younger people had not grown up reading newspapers and hence they were the source of decline. Recently, this decline has increased and in some cases has been cited as reaching 3% per year. I have jokingly said this occurred when I, and everyone else with geriatric relatives in Florida, bought them computers. Data from the Newsprint Producers Association seems to back up this decline, citing a drop in demand from 2003 to 2004 of 4.4% in Canada and 1.8% in the United States.

Now, however, signs are appearing that seem to indicate that the declines of the recent past have been mere baby steps. For instance, 20 million Americans are writing blogs (web logs) at least weekly. This may not represent the same quality editorial content one finds in leading newspapers of the past, but in the matter of editorials, quality seems to be evolving to being defined by the reader. Every other component of the paper can be found on line, grouped together or as separate deliveries (in late October, my cell phone goes off every night at 3 a.m. as the Weather Channel provides a frost warning).

However, the most ominous threat to newsprint is not novel content delivery--it is where the advertising dollars are going. If print newspapers do not have ads, there will be no print newspapers. EBay is no doubt a force to be reckoned with in this venue. However, the real 800 pound elephant at the party is Google. At this writing, early November 2005, it appears that Google will soon be ready to launch classified advertising. When this comes, newsprint manufacturers will be longing for the days of 3% per year declines.

So, in the first 330 words of this column, I have stated the obvious. The question is what to do? Let me start you down a path of thinking a different way, and, hopefully, you can pick it up from here for profit and success in your own enterprise.

CAVE DWELLERS

To start with, let's imagine we are sitting in our cave, chomping on a roasted leg of deer, and still marveling over the invention of fire. That geek three caves over just discovered fire two weeks ago, and although we all make fun of him, we still are appreciating eating cooked meat. As we eat, we are discussing his invention of last week, the wheel, when he comes rushing in, loin cloth disheveled as usual, and announces: "I have simultaneously invented newsprint and Google!" So, now that we have newsprint and Google invented on the same day, we can compare their utility with a contrasting SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis without any prejudice as to past histories of either one. After a bit of discussion, we scratch the chart above on a rock near where we live in southern Utah (see www.go-utah.com/Newspaper-Rock).

There are some qualities of newsprint that Google does not have, as well as some qualities of Google that are a threat to newsprint. It does appear to this humble writer that if you want to be making newsprint in another 10 years, an approach similar to the one I have outlined will be needed to begin that strategy. Good luck!

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Thompson is CEO of Talo Analytic International, Inc. (www.taii.com), a member of the Solutions! editorial board and executive editor of PaperMoney (www.globalpapermoney.org), which is published by TAPPI and TAII. Contact him at [e-mail].

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

                        STRENGTHS            WEAKNESSES

GOOGLE                  Cheap delivery       Requires electricity
                        Instant searching    Long term archiving
                        Speed of delivery    Not a legitimate record
                                               of notice
                                             Advertising not portable
                                               without printing
                                             Reader dependent on health
                                               of Google
NEWSPAPERS              No electricity       Expensive delivery
(end use of newsprint)    required           Difficult searching
                        Semi permanent       Requires reading skills
                          record             Slow delivery
                        Portability
                        Legal notice of
                          record tradition
                        Source of obituary
                          tradition
                        Clip an ad, follow
                          it to garage sale
                        Many sources

                        OPPORTUNITIES             THREATS

GOOGLE                  Most of the world moving  Instant censorship
                          to verbal and video
                        Improve portability
NEWSPAPERS              Tradition of free press   Electricity in
(end use of newsprint)  Promote as classic          developing
                          learning tool             countries