Global warming challenges African development. (Eightfold Rise in [CO.sub.2] in Fifty Years).

Sharp increases in air and water pollution, land degradation, droughts and wildlife losses are facing Africa unless urgent action is taken to deliver environmentally-friendly development, states a report released by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Growing populations, wars, high levels of national debt, natural disasters and disease have all taken their toll on the people and the rich natural environment of Africa in the past three decades. Over the coming three decades, new and emerging threats, including climate change, the unchecked spread of alien, introduced species, uncontrolled expansion of cities, and pollution from cars and industry, are likely to aggravate levels of poverty, environmental decline and ill-health.

Many African countries are attempting to address some of the root causes of environmental degradation through initiatives such as the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD). But a far bigger effort within and outside the continent is needed to steer Africa on a prosperous, environmentally-sustainable course. Actions include deeper cuts in its debt burden, a boost in overseas aid, the empowering of local communities, enforcing environmental agreements, introducing green and clean technologies, and allowing African countries fair access to international markets for their goods and services. Without this, Africa is unlikely to develop in a way that benefits its people, landscapes and wildlife, and ultimately the world, states the Africa Environment Outlook, the most comprehensive and authoritative assessment of the continent's environment ever produced, compiled by UNEP for the African Ministerial Conference on the Environment.

Climate. Africa's people are heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture. Records from 1900 show that its annual rainfall has been decreasing since 1968, possibly as a result of global warming due to man-made emissions. where is also evidence that natural disasters, particularly drought in the Sahel, have become more common and severe. Droughts and floods are increasing pressure on fragile lands, leading to the displacement of people and wildlife, adding to increased soil erosion and the silting up of rivers, dams and coastal waters. There canal so be severe economic consequences. In Uganda, record rains of 1997 destroyed 40 per cent of its 9,600-kilometre feeder road network. Between 1997 and 1998, a prolonged drought in Seychelles led to the closure of the Seychelles Breweries and the Indian Ocean Tuna Company.

Emissions of carbon dioxide, the main global warming gas, have risen eightfold in Africa since 1950 to 223 million metric tons. However, those are still less than the emissions of a developed country such as Germany or Japan. South Africa accounts for 42 per cent of these emissions, while Egypt, Nigeria and Algeria combined account for 35.5 per cent. Despite contributing very little to global greenhouse gas emissions, Africa is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of global warming as a result of its dependency on agriculture and lack of financial resources to offset these impacts.

The Gulf of Guinea, Senegal, Egypt, the Gambia, the eastern African coast and the Western Indian Ocean islands are at particular risk from rising sea levels. A one-metre rise would flood large areas of the Nile Delta, and the Egyptian city of Alexandria would be severely affected; a similar rise would swamp 70 per cent of Seychelles.

Meanwhile, significant extinction of plants and animals is anticipated over the coming decades, affecting rural livelihoods and tourism, if global warming continues unchecked. Hartebeest, wildebeest and zebra in South Africa's Kruger National Park, Botswana's Okavango Delta and Zimbabwe's Hwange National Park could be severely threatened by a predicted 5-per-cent drop in rainfall. Crop yields in some parts of southern Africa may fall by as much as 20 per cent. It is also predicted that malaria-carrying mosquitoes will spread to Namibia and South Africa over the coming decades, the Outlook states. Early warning systems on rainfall and drought have been established across the continent. Mechanisms agreed under the Kyoto Protocol, the legal instrument on climate change, could benefit Africa economically and socially by providing cleaner and greener energy sources and financial incentives to plant carbon dioxide absorbing trees. Fifty-two African countries are parties to the United Nations Convention to Combat De sertification and sixteen have now drawn up action plans aimed at improving land productivity, land rehabilitation and sustainable management of water resources.

Air pollution. Africa has the highest rate of urbanization in the world. That, alongside taxes that encourage dirty fuels, a sharp rise in import of often older model cars and outdated, inefficient industrial plants, is increasing levels of air pollution. The number of motor vehicles in northern Africa has nearly doubled in the past 10 to 15 years. In Uganda, eastern Africa, the number of road vehicles has quadrupled since 1971. Older cars emit up to twenty times more pollution than newer ones.

Health costs associated with vehicle emissions were among the factors costing Senegal the equivalent of 5 per cent of its gross domestic product. Tighter controls on the importation of cars from abroad, including a requirement that they not be older than five years, have been proposed there and could be a blueprint for other African countries. Egypt has introduced unleaded petrol, and South Africa has signed the United Nations Motor Vehicle Emissions Agreement.

In northern Africa, many cities experience levels of sulphur dioxide that are double the World Health Organization standard, especially where there are refineries and coal power stations. The use of wood as a fuel can increase the health risks for women and children at home. In the United Republic of Tanzania, for example, children under five who die from acute respiratory infections are three times more likely to have been exposed to the burning of such fuels.

Many countries have brought in air quality standards and regulations to control pollution, although a lack of resources makes enforcement difficult. Renewable energy schemes, e.g. wind, solar and waste-into-energy projects, are being introduced in some countries, such as Algeria, Morocco and Mauritius.

Coastal and marine environments. Africa's rich coastal and marine areas are under threat from pollution, over-harvesting of resources, erosion and the potential impacts of climate change, the report states. Indeed, an estimated 38 per cent of coastal ecosystems, such as mangrove swamps and coral reefs, are under threat from developments like ports and the growth of coastal settlements and their sewage discharges. Forty per cent of Nigeria's mangrove swamps, important fish nurseries, buffers against erosion-causing waves and sources of construction materials had already been lost by 1980.

The damming of the Nile River at Aswan has reduced the level of nutrients so much that the sardine catch in the Nile Delta has slumped from 22,618 million tonnes in 1968 to under 13,500 million tonnes, and is still declining.

Over-harvesting of fish by local and foreign fleets is leading to a decline in stocks. Local supplies across most of Africa are forecast to decline over the next ten years as a result of insufficient resources, such as fishery patrol vessels, to enforce controls. Fish farming is unlikely to help as farmers are expected to focus on high-value species for export to places like Europe. But in Northern Africa, total catches of marine fish has climbed by 30 per cent since 1990 to about 1.1 million tonnes; however, its marine environment is at risk. In the Red Sea, pollution linked with insensitive tourism, dumping of wastes, and leaks and oil spills from ships is seen as a key threat.

In eastern Africa, as in many parts of Africa, sediment from coastal erosion clogs up and chokes important marine habitats, such as coral reefs, damaging their value for tourism and fisheries. Coastal erosion rates along some parts of western Africa, such as Togo and Benin, are now as high as 30 metres a year. The problem is aggravated by environmental degradation in the interior, including poor agricultural land use and felling of trees that stabilize soil during heavy rains.

In the western Indian Ocean islands, dynamite fishing, walking on coral reefs, recent high-sea temperatures and illegal use of nets are damaging the economically important reefs. In Mauritius, two thirds of coastal residents discharge wastes into the sea, and in the Comoros there are no wastewater treatment works at all. Laws requiring environmental impact assessments before development have been introduced by many African countries, including Egypt, Gambia, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Nigeria and South Africa.

Regional and subregional programmes and action plans, such as the UNEP Regional Seas Programme, are providing the framework for a more holistic management of Africa's coastal zones. Several important agreements and conventions have been created, including the Nairobi, Abidjan and Jeddah Conventions. However, there is a desperate need for more trained staff, finance, equipment, research, monitoring, surveillance and enforcement of regulations.

Africa Environmental Outlook is available at http://www.unep.org/aeo or http://www.grida.no/aeo or at Earthprint http://www.earthprint.com.

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