Global bomb bazaar.

The Cold War is at an end. The arms race is winding down. And, there's a lot of plutonium, the highly toxic stuff that nuclear weapons are made of, looking for new homes. According to U.S. officials, at least 50 tonnes of plutonium will come from both the U.S. and Russia in the next decade as they dismantle their nuclear weapons. And, while the U.S. tries to find safe ways to get rid of this toxic waste, Russia wants to save it and dreams of making more.

Most arms control experts see this growing supply of nuclear material as a long-term global security risk, an invitation to terrorists or countries that want to make nuclear weapons. A fistful of plutonium, about four kilos, is enough to make such a weapon.

In the past, the West has been most concerned about Moscow's 30,000 warheads falling into the hands of terrorists or countries such as Iraq and Iran that have nuclear ambitions. But, the supply of plutonium and highly enriched uranium at scores of research institutes, weapons laboratories and assembly plants, power plants, storage sites, and naval fuel depots now are considered a far greater threat. None of these locations are as well protected as military installations. There also have been major staff cutbacks and drastic drops in salary among Russian nuclear scientists. Many see the resulting discontent, coupled with well-financed Middle Eastern nations seeking bomb materials, as a perfect breeding ground for bribery and smuggling. There are clear signs that the diversion of Russian nuclear materials has already taken place.

German authorities have seized plutonium and highly enriched uranium thought to have come from Russia; some from laboratories once considered to be among the world's most strictly guarded. Four radioactive samples, three of deadly plutonium-239 and one of highly enriched uranium, were seized in Germany between May and September 1994.

According to an article in the German news magazine, Stern, Germany has become a centre for international nuclear smuggling largely because of the chaos in the former Soviet Union. The magazine reported that the Russians have registered more than 200 incidents of theft and sale of radioactive material since 1992 -- the real number is thought to be much higher. It's estimated that Russia has more than 130 tonnes of weapons-grade plutonium, enough to make 16,000 bombs larger than the one used on Hiroshima.

As Time Magazine recently explained: "The security concern focusses on what weapons makers call the `pits,' grapefruit-size plutonium or enriched-uranium spheres ... that form the cores of warheads. Once the radioactive material is at hand, a competent nuclear engineer or even a bright high school student can turn a couple of finished pits into a bomb..."

Time described this emerging black market as "a historic and nightmarish challenge for the world. It makes the threat of nuclear proliferation far more urgent and increases the number of characters who could do it themselves."

And, the New Internationalist pointed out in November 1994 that: "Predictably, most of the governments actively trying to acquire [nuclear] weapons are oppressive, ruled by a military elite prepared to beggar their countries" to develop nuclear capability.

Although not as oppressive as some, India is one nation that has become a nuclear power, and with Canadian help, albeit unwitting. In the 1960s, Canada agreed to supply India with two CANDU reactors. The reactors were intended to be used solely for the generation of electricity. India promised not to use the Canadian technology to develop weapons, but, by 1971, it had started a secret bomb project. In May 1974, India exploded its first nuclear bomb.

India's old enemy, Pakistan, responded. In August 1994, it announced that it also had the nuclear bomb. Continual tensions between the two countries make this a global concern.

Some observers fear that China could become another India. China is, of course, already a nuclear power, but Canada recently signed a $3.5 billion deal to sell the country two CANDU nuclear reactors. In June 1994, the Chinese ignored Canadian requests to halt their nuclear weapons testing program. They detonated an underground device, with about twice the destructive force of the Hiroshima bomb.

And, last November, Japan disclosed that it has nearly 10,900 kilos of plutonium. The secrecy surrounding Japan's nuclear program has raised criticism and prompted the government's Science and Technology Agency to release a detailed account of the country's plutonium supplies and how it plans to use it.

So, the end of the Cold War has not brought a reduction in nuclear tension. If anything there's been an increase.

SUGGESTED ACTIVITIES:

1. In the August 1990 issue of Atlantic Magazine, U. S. political scientist John J. Mearsheimer, said he saw the world becoming more dangerous not less with the end of the Cold War. Europe especially would become a more complex place with several powers vying for ascendancy -- a situation that, earlier this century, led to the outbreak of World War L His solution to the new danger is more weapons, especially nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons, he argues, equalize arsenals; once two nations can annihilate each other, any further differences are trivial. The best hope for peace in a more fragile Europe is to make more nations, especially Germany, nuclear. Discuss.

2. Debate the following: "Resolved that, as rogue nations will never agree to the terms of a Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, negotiating such a deal is a pointless exercise."

RELATED ARTICLE: FACT FILE

The bomb that levelled Nagasaki in 1945 produced an explosive force equivalent to 20,000 tonnes of TNT, puny by today's standards in which one rocket could deliver a punch equal to more than 300 Nagasaki-sized bombs.