GRAMMY CONUNDRUM; HIPPER NOMINATIONS FOR MUSIC'S COVETED AWARDS MAY NOT MATTER WHEN IT COMES TO FINAL VOTE.

Byline: Thomas O'Neil Special to the Daily News

Predicting Grammy winners is usually a snap. Just look over the top categories, find a beloved music veteran snubbed in his prime, and you can count on him finally taking an overdue bow. (Eric Clapton must be developing a trick hip by now.) Or spot a pop rock diva without a crown and just wait for the coronation of the next Bonnie Raitt or Sheryl Crow.

But this year, beware: There are so many old pros and sultry divas crowding the top slots that the Grammys could turn into a palace coup when the ceremony is broadcast at 8 p.m. Wednesday on CBS.

What's up?

Three years ago, the National Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences overhauled its system of picking nominees in order to make the lineups in the top four categories (Album, Record, Song of the Year and Best New Artist) more hip. The academy's 9,000 members still submit their ballot choices, but a secret committee of 25 picks the final five nominees from a list of the top 20 vote-getters. The final decision on who wins is then returned to the full membership for a vote.

The result: Progressive music critics must now be happy that their favorite CD of 1997, Radiohead's ``OK Computer,'' is in the running for best album. It probably wouldn't have made the cut under the old voting system. But that didn't help the critics' pick last year: Beck's ``Odelay'' scored a bid, too, but then got trounced by Celine Dion's ``Falling Into You,'' the same kind of ballad-heavy mega-seller that usually wins. Grammy grousers must wonder: Has anything really changed?

Answer: yes. Grammy's old biases are now more evident than ever. Two veteran rockers are competing for Album of the Year (Bob Dylan, Paul McCartney) and three pop rock divas for Record of the Year (Paula Cole, Shawn Colvin and Sheryl Crow). If befuddled voters split their votes, teen sensation Hanson's ``MMMBop'' might even snag the latter prize, leaving the long-beleaguered Grammys with new lumps.

Here's a blow-by-blow of each major contest:

Record of the Year: Paula Cole has a whopping seven nominations, and she also has the media buzz. Most Grammy pundits are predicting she'll win this category with ``Where Have All the Cowboys Gone?'' But the other two pop-rock divas crowding the race also have fine songs: Shawn Colvin's ``Sunny Came Home'' and Sheryl Crow's ``Every Day Is a Winding Road.'' Crow proved she can take this award in 1995 with ``All I Wanna Do,'' but her latest chances are frustrated by the fact that ``Road'' failed to win a mirror bid for Song of the Year (the songwriter's award; Record of the Year goes to the recording artist). In past years, voters have given both awards together more than 50 percent of the time.

If the votes split between the pop-rock divas, that means Hanson's ``MMMBop'' could come bounding through to win best record. A good song, yes. Catchy, too. But chances are it will be remembered in music history as a bubblegum tune by Tulsa teens in need of a bath. The feel-good, fad song of the year has won in past years: remember Bobby McFerrin's 1988 best record ``Don't Worry, Be Happy.'' One snag: ``MMMBop'' also failed to be nominated for best song.

That makes the likely winner R. Kelly's ``I Believe I Can Fly.'' It's the kind of breezy ballad that often soars off with the laurels (think Seal's ``Kiss From a Rose'' winning in 1996). Even better, it's from a movie (``Space Jam''), which voters love.

Song of the Year: In addition to ``I Believe I Can Fly,'' ``Sunny Came Home'' and ``Where Have All the Cowboys Gone?'' the other two contenders are No Doubt's ``Don't Speak'' and Diane Warren's ``How Do I Live'' (performed on different recordings by LeAnn Rimes and Trisha Yearwood).

Probable winner: R. Kelly's ``I Believe I Can Fly'' unless ``Cowboys'' wins Record of the Year. If so, ``Cowboys'' will lasso this, too.

Album of the Year: The music industry went crazy over Bob Dylan's brilliant comeback with ``Time Out of Mind,'' earning him his first-ever Grammy bid for best album. He was considered a shoo-in to win, too - before the nominations came out. That's when Paul McCartney snuck in with ``Flaming Pie,'' which also had critics smacking their lips. (He won best album for ``Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band'' as a Beatle in 1968.) Sentimental voting could get sliced right down the middle.

That might leave the biggest vote piece for Paula Cole's ``The Fire.'' She's the only female in the category . . . and she's hot this year.

``OK Computer'' by British alternative band Radiohead certainly had music critics buzzing, but it's unlikely that Grammy's traditionally conservative voters will tune in.

The probable winner: Babyface's ``The Day.'' He's a Grammy favorite, with nine wins behind him, but none so far in the top categories. He's also got the most total noms this year (eight). As a golden-touch producer, chart-topping songwriter and beloved singer, he's his generation's Quincy Jones. That means a lot: Jones hold the record for most Grammys (26) outside the classical categories, and he took the best album prize in 1991 with ``Back on the Block.''

Best New Artist: Surprising everyone, Puff Daddy got blown off in all of the other top races this year, so he could land here. Hanson's best hope is for a best-record ambush. Women tend to win this category, so that helps Paula Cole, who also nabbed a nomination for Producer of the Year, and Fiona Apple, who won the equivalent newcomer's prize at the MTV Awards. Both have had extensive MTV and VH1 exposure, but Apple has an edge in this race because she's sexier. She also has that same defiant attitude that helped Alanis Morissette win the best-album award two years ago.

And don't write off Erykah Badu, who could pull off an upset. The Dallas native made critics swoon by infusing her breakout gold debut album ``Baduizm'' with delicious licks of soul, jazz, r&b and hip hop.

But where, oh, where is the Flavor of the Year - those Spice Girls?

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Photo: (1--3) Three pop-rock divas are up for the Record of the Year: Paula Cole, left, Shawn Colvin and Sheryl Crow.