GOP outlook: to avoid repeating history, Republicans had better make their own. (U.S. Election Postmortem).

There are three certain outcomes to every American election: a winner, a loser, and an exhaustive analysis of What It All Means. It is unequivocally clear that the November midterms were historic, and a victory as great for the Republican Party as they are a cause for celebration. Yet as the dust settles, the press has already started raising expectations about what President Bush should be able to accomplish in the two years leading up to the next election. Superficial and conventional wisdom leads with the assumption that the new GOP majority epitomizes the admonition of Jesus in Luke 12:48: "To whom much is given, much is also required." In reality, Republicans have been handed far less than carte blanche. Even the re-taking of the Senate has a built-in caveat. As former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott has noted repeatedly, in the Senate, the majority does not rule. The 51-vote majority the GOP currently holds in that chamber is an advantage, not an edict: 51 falls far short of the 60 votes required to move any piece of legislation forward. Yet, punditry remains rife with the notion that President Bush has been handed a dictatorship along with his party's victory.

But having noted all that, the Democrats could have some difficult and depressing times ahead. Albert Einstein once pointed out that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting a different result. By that standard, the Democratic Party's first high-profile move since the election--the anointing of ultra-liberal San Francisco congresswoman Nancy Pelosi as House minority leader--is textbook, an act of madness destructive to the Democrats and highly entertaining to Republicans. Pelosi is symptomatic of the main reason the Democrats don't have a national party: the Democratic leadership is at ideological war with Middle America, especially the Southern middle class. The Democrats like to say that they lost because their base didn't turn out, but their base did turn out--and only their base. The middle class and the independent voter identified their options on the ballot, and didn't find much to identify with in the Democrats.

By contrast, as Democratic candidates across the country were begging high-profile leaders such as the Clintons and Al Gore to stay away, Republican candidates were lining up to roll out the red carpet for President Bush and his surrogates, and President Bush was indefatigable in his willingness to get on the stump, use the megaphone of his office, and put his prestige on the line. It worked, and President Bush's message continues to reverberate across the country post-election: the New York Times recently noted presidential advisor Karl Rove's mention of new polls "that suggested voters were steadily warming" to the President.

Several factors contributed to the sweep: first, Republicans had good candidates. Second, by equal parts accident, fortune, and design, the GOP had its first good October since 1994. From major distractions in the news ranging from the Beltway Sniper to the antics of Saddam Hussein, to the ability of members to go back to their districts to campaign without the hangover of any ugly annual spending battles, the Republicans were unobstructed in getting out their message and getting out the vote.

Third, Americans understand the difference between a wounded economy and a sick one. The economy was hurt by the terrorist attacks of September 11, by the spectacular bursting of the stock market bubble, and by high-profile accounting scandals. The American people knew that President Bush was, and is, doing a first-rate job in responding to and handling these injuries to the nation. Winston Churchill once said, "When you' re going through hell, keep going." On Election Day, the American people voted their faith in the President and in his party to keep moving.

And finally, perhaps an ingredient that has been missing from American politics is beginning to return: character is back. President Bush is a man who lives his values instead of just dusting them off for photo opportunities. For the past eight years, character has been an issue that has largely been absent from the American political landscape and has for a long time befuddled the Democrats, who have chosen to define their party and political landscape with only narrow issue positions. The American people have missed what is right, true, certain, and decent; in short, they've missed character, and they found it in President Bush and the candidates who follow his example. I believe it was the prodigal return of character that made the marginal difference for Republicans, and put the GOP over the goal line in almost all the close races in the process.

The midterms were a great success, but the champagne should be mostly shelved until 2004. The GOP should keep in mind that if midterm elections were completely accurate leading indicators of political fortunes, Bill Clinton would not have been reelected in 1996, two years after the wholesale slaughter of Democratic Candidates at the polls. If the Republicans don't want to repeat history, they're going to have to continue to make their own.

Ed Rogers is vice chairman of Barbour Griffith & Rogers in Washington, D. C.