GOOD TIMES ... IN 2005 SOUTHLAND LEADS CRAWL TOWARD RECOVERY.Byline: Barbara Correa Staff Writer Venture capital investment has picked up, job losses have stabilized, and California's economy has finally hit bottom, but recovery is coming slowly with a strong rebound unlikely until 2005, according to according to prep. 1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of: according to historians. 2. In keeping with: according to instructions. 3. the quarterly UCLA UCLA University of California at Los Angeles UCLA University Center for Learning Assistance (Illinois State University) UCLA University of Carrollton, TX and Lower Addison, TX Anderson Forecast to be released today. The report - which found the economy weaker than expected in the past quarter - projects only slight growth in 2004 but a brighter outlook for the following year. Confidence that Southern California Southern California, also colloquially known as SoCal, is the southern portion of the U.S. state of California. Centered on the cities of Los Angeles and San Diego, Southern California is home to nearly 24 million people and is the nation's second most populated region, would recover stronger and faster than the state or nation as a whole remained high in the report, whose lead author cited the Inland Empire In·land Empire A region of the northwest United States between the Cascade Range and the Rocky Mountains, comprising eastern Washington, eastern Oregon, northern Idaho, and western Montana. Farming, lumbering, and mining are important to the area. as the ``fastest growing area in the nation,'' adding 90,000 jobs or 9 percent of its work force despite the weak economy. ``We're really looking now at 2005 as being the year that things may come together for California - maybe the second half of 2004,'' wrote Tom Lieser, senior economist at the Anderson School Anderson School may refer to:
``I think we're beginning to see more improving signals in California. ... It's a little clearer now that the worst is behind us.'' Despite lowering state employment projections for this year from 0.4 percent growth - cited in the previous Anderson report This article refers to a Report on Scientology. For the Anderson Report into UK Higher Education see Anderson Report. The Anderson Report is the colloquial name of the report of the Board of Inquiry into Scientology, an official inquiry into the Church of , issued in June - to an overall decline of 0.3 percent, forecasters saw some reasons for optimism. State unemployment fell from a cyclical high reading of 6.9 percent in December 2002 to 6.6 percent in August. Sectors poised for growth over the next two years include trade-related transportation and warehousing, wholesale and retail trade, and leisure services and hospitality. Education and health care, despite threatened budget cuts, never experienced a downturn, the report says. Personal income should rise a relatively weak 3.2 percent this year, then 3.9 percent in 2004 and 5.1 percent in 2005. The forecasters also expect employment growth for next year of just 1 percent, followed by 2.2 percent in 2005. But the return of venture capital, flowing mostly into the San Francisco Bay Area “Bay Area” redirects here. For other uses, see Bay Area (disambiguation). The San Francisco Bay Area, colloquially known as the Bay Area or The Bay in the second quarter, and the strongest semiconductor sales in two years in August are good signs for the information-technology sector, the hardest hit by recession. Exports from California rose at an annualized annualized Of or relating to a variable that has been mathematically converted to a yearly rate. Inflation and interest rates are generally annualized since it is on this basis that these two variables are ordinarily stated and compared. rate of 13.6 percent in the second quarter - the third quarterly increase in a row. Lieser also points to migration to the state - which fell slightly from 2000 levels but is projected to continue at 200,000 a year through 2010 - as a positive sign for future job development. The forecast touches on anecdotal evidence anecdotal evidence, n information obtained from personal accounts, examples, and observations. Usually not considered scientifically valid but may indicate areas for further investigation and research. of companies moving out of the state because their officials see the business climate as hostile. Lieser writes that a little historical perspective shows that California hasn't had a stellar reputation in at least the past several decades. He cites a 2001 California Business Roundtable Business Roundtable (BRT), an association consisting of the chief executive officers of major U.S. corporations that was founded in 1972 through the merger of the three preexisting business organizations. and Chamber of Commerce survey in which 2 percent of respondents acknowledged plans to relocate out of state. But officials in 12 percent of companies surveyed said they were looking to expand in other states. ``Right now we see this real caution on the part of businesses reflected in frugal hiring decisions,'' he said. On the other hand, he said, ``if you look at California's success in technology and entertainment, those are high-wage industries, so labor costs aren't the entire story there.'' A study by the Los Angeles Los Angeles (lôs ăn`jələs, lŏs, ăn`jəlēz'), city (1990 pop. 3,485,398), seat of Los Angeles co., S Calif.; inc. 1850. Economic Development Corp. released last week found that officials in 8 percent of 2,000 Los Angeles County companies surveyed said they were considering relocating to another state or overseas. ``That would represent 100,000 jobs for the county,'' said Jack Kyser, chief economist at the LAEDC LAEDC Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation LAEDC Louisiana Economic Development Council . ``A lot of firms have just about had it. With workers' comp, mandated health care and paid family leave, they're saying (they're) not making any money. There's a sense of, I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it anymore.'' Kyser said the recall election has helped broadcast the business community's frustration with the state, and that some legislators up for re- election have started to take more notice. As for the impact of the lingering $8 billion budget deficit on the state's economic health, a little perspective again goes a long way. ``It's a disgrace for our government ... but it's not a big issue for the state economy,'' said Michael Bazdarich, director of the University of California, Riverside The University of California, Riverside, commonly known as UCR or UC Riverside, is a public research university and one of ten campuses of the University of California system. , Forecasting Center and a contributing Anderson Forecast economist. ``You put it in the context of a $1.4 trillion economy - it's not going to single-handedly derail de·rail intr. & tr.v. de·railed, de·rail·ing, de·rails 1. To run or cause to run off the rails. 2. this economy.'' Kyser agrees that, in terms of numbers, the deficit is minor for an economy the size of California's. But he does see it as an image problem. ``You are also considering how people view you. (The deficit) is a sentiment issue,'' he said. ``We can't just go on issuing debt. ... We're getting calls from institutional investors in California (asking) what is going on out there.'' Still, the job outlook for Los Angeles County remains optimistic. Payroll employment will remain flat for the rest of this year, then add 64,000 jobs in 2004 and 83,000 in 2005, according to the Los Angeles section of the Anderson Forecast. The strongest gains will appear in professional and business services, education and health services health services Managed care The benefits covered under a health contract , and financial services propped up partly by robust mortgage activity, said Christopher Thornberg, author of the Los Angeles report. He added that mortgage rates are expected to remain flat or even fall slightly in the next two quarters amid continuing economic weakness across the nation. That will continue to fuel price appreciation in Southern California, with average Los Angeles County home prices topping out at $350,000 by the end of the year. After that, prices should start to ease, he said. Barbara Correa, (818) 713-3634 barbara.correa(at)dailynews.com CAPTION(S): 3 charts Chart: CALIFORNIA'S COMEBACK? (1) Personal Income (2) Employment (3) Unemployment SOURCE: UCLA Anderson Forecast, September 2003 Daily News |
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