GOOD NEWS IN STORE FOR L.A. SOUTHLAND ECONOMY GETS SUNNY FORECAST.Byline: Evan Pondel Staff Writer Southern California's economy is expected to show signs of modest improvement through 2005, with aerospace, international trade and tourism displaying the greatest strength, according to according to prep. 1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of: according to historians. 2. In keeping with: according to instructions. 3. the Los Angeles Los Angeles (lôs ăn`jələs, lŏs, ăn`jəlēz'), city (1990 pop. 3,485,398), seat of Los Angeles co., S Calif.; inc. 1850. County Economic Development Corp. 2004-2005 forecast to be released today. After two consecutive years of job losses, the improvements in those sectors should help cultivate more employment opportunities. Specifically, nonfarm employment in California is expected to advance by almost 1 percent, accounting for approximately 131,000 more jobs this year. Los Angeles County is expected to see a similar increase, adding about 31,300 jobs in 2004, the forecast reported. ``There's a success story in that we are seeing more jobs. But the success is being muted by an environment that is less conducive to doing business,'' said Jack Kyser, chief economist The Chief Economist is a single position job class having primary responsibility for the development, coordination, and production of economic and financial analysis. It is distinguished from the other economist positions by the broader scope of responsibility encompassing the for the LAEDC LAEDC Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation LAEDC Louisiana Economic Development Council . ``What we need is some strategic thinking about the economy. And the government has to be a part of that solution, instead of being perceived as part of the problem.'' Workers' compensation workers' compensation, payment by employers for some part of the cost of injuries, or in some cases of occupational diseases, received by employees in the course of their work. insurance continues to thwart businesses throughout the state, burdening budding enterprises with excessive costs, Kyser said. At the same time, health care insurance has become another added woe as businesses transfer more of the costs to employees. Los Angeles County's unemployment rate should ease to an average of 6.5 percent in 2004, just as total personal income in the region is expected to increase 3.5 percent to $32,785 this year. ``Obviously, we still have a lot of dynamism. But we need to think about how we can tap that energy,'' Kyser said. ``Industries are changing.'' How will Southern California's economy fare in the next year? Here's a look at leading sectors. Entertainment The motion picture industry in Los Angeles will continue to suffer from runaway production  An editor has expressed concern that this article or section is .Please help improve the article by adding information and sources on neglected viewpoints, or by summarizing and and piracy. Kyser said the industry may also feel some turbulence following contract negotiations between the studios and various unions. The Writers Guild contract expires May 1, while contracts for the Screen Actors Guild and the American Federation of Television and Radio Artists The American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (AFTRA) is a performers' union that represents a wide variety of talent, including actors in radio and television, as well as radio and television announcers and newspersons, singers and recording artists (both royalty expire July 1. Health care coverage and the sharing of DVD DVD: see digital versatile disc. DVD in full digital video disc or digital versatile disc Type of optical disc. The DVD represents the second generation of compact-disc (CD) technology. revenues are among the more contentious issues. Strengthening the industry, advertising will remain robust due to the Olympics, the presidential election and March and November ballot initiatives in California. Tourism The region should receive an infusion of travelers after a national tourism event at the Los Angeles Convention Center The Los Angeles Convention Center (abbreviated LACC) is a convention center in downtown Los Angeles. The LACC hosts annual events such as the Greater Los Angeles Auto Show, and was best known to video games fans as host to E3 until its cessation in 2006. in April. At the gathering known as the Pow Wow, more than 5,000 tourism professionals will network and purchase travel packages valued at an estimated $3 billion at the event. In Los Angeles County, amusement parks and arcades are poised for a 16.2 percent increase in job growth in 2004 when compared with the previous year. ``Tourism is the No. 2 economic engine in Los Angeles. And this Pow Wow will give a boost to the region,'' said Michael Collins, executive president of L.A. Inc., The Convention and Visitors Bureau. ``There are still a lot of mixed indicators out there, though. And the increase in homeland security will not make things easier.'' Orange County is also well-positioned for a boost in tourism as Anaheim begins redeveloping its downtown area. The region is expecting its theme parks - Disneyland and Knott's Berry Farm Knott's Berry Farm is a brand name of two separate entities: a theme park in Buena Park, California, and a manufacturer of food specialty products (primarily jams and preserves) based in Placentia, California. - to benefit from the increase in tourism. International trade Despite heightened security, international trade activity is expected to gain momentum this year. For California's three customs districts - San Diego, San Francisco and Los Angeles - the LAEDC forecasts a gain of 8 percent to a total two-way trade value of $378.7 billion in 2004. However, that level is still below the 2000 record of $392.1 billion. ``An increase in international trade also bodes some negative news in that we'll likely see more truck traffic on the freeways,'' Kyser said. Much of the international trade girth GIRTH., A girth or yard is a measure of length. The word is of Saxon origin, taken from the circumference of the human body. Girth is contracted from girdeth, and signifies as much as girdle. See Ell. for the state is in Los Angeles, which accounted for a 6.4 percent increase in volume last year. The declining value of the U.S. dollar versus other currencies is also boosting exports for California. However, the forecast said the weakening U.S. dollar has placed foreign countries in a quandary as they question whether to lower interest rates to dampen their currencies. Technology The technology sector is maintaining a steady recovery, even with the beleaguered be·lea·guer tr.v. be·lea·guered, be·lea·guer·ing, be·lea·guers 1. To harass; beset: We are beleaguered by problems. 2. To surround with troops; besiege. telecommunications sector exhibiting more positive signs. The Semiconductor Industry Association is forecasting continued growth in 2004, with revenues up 19.4 percent. The forecast said while this growth is important for the industry, India is becoming a prime destination for tech services. Total technology employment in the state is expected to slide in 2004, dropping by 9,700 jobs to an average of 775,000. However, the decline is a vast improvement versus the 43,900 jobs lost in 2003. Real estate After a strong year in 2003, unit sales unit sales Sales measured in terms of physical units rather than dollars. Unit sales data are often used by financial analysts when evaluating the health of a company. are expected to ease this year. The forecast said interest rates are likely to increase by mid-2004, although median prices of resale homes should continue to climb. Aerospace Aerospace manufacturing is once again on the rebound, reinvigorated by contracts struck with the Department of Defense and other federal agencies. Bruce Ackerman, president and chief executive officer of the San Fernando Valley San Fernando Valley Valley, southern California, U.S. Northwest of central Los Angeles, the valley is bounded by the San Gabriel, Santa Susana, and Santa Monica mountains and the Simi Hills. Economic Alliance, said aerospace continues to show a steady growth pattern in the Valley. However, aerospace strength is countered by a dearth of health care resources in the Valley. ``Hospitals in particular are truly dealing with a crisis. Almost every (hospital) CEO (1) (Chief Executive Officer) The highest individual in command of an organization. Typically the president of the company, the CEO reports to the Chairman of the Board. I talk to is saying they can't handle the extra costs right now,'' Ackerman said. Health services health services Managed care The benefits covered under a health contract The LAEDC forecast's rating for health services in 2004 is a D-plus. The report said that overall health care costs will continue to climb at double-digit rates as hospitals struggle with recently passed nurse staffing ratios. The effect: Smaller hospitals are closing. Kyser said seismic retrofitting requirements are also thwarting the industry, with various facilities deciding to sell their properties because of the sheer cost of new construction. Evan Pondel, (818) 713-3662 evan.pondel(at)dailynews.com |
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